NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Believe it or not, 538 has added the KY-06 poll (with N=164!) to their database, but none of the others.   This is really poor practice IMO.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody know when the polling will resume?

Probably during the evening hours tonight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

Also, only 166 people still. I'd wait until at least 300 to really say anything significant about KY-06.

Even at 300, the MoE is still very high (+/- 5.6%).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hope you can post most of the results.

I will not pay any paper, magazine, or website of any political description any $ for access.

Open the page in Incognito mode and you won't have to pay.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The MN-03 poll has begun. 4 calls, 0 responses so far

Up to 15 now with no responses!

Maybe everybody in Minnesota is busy on Friday night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wouldn't it be fun if actual election night returns worked like this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

I sent feedback to 538 about the KY-06 poll being included with a sample size of 164, and got a response this morning: "...we're updating any Siena/Upshot poll once its sample size is over 150. Then we put in the finished poll once it's done."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1038486230168752130

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-03 and MN-08 both tied at 47 and 43 each respectively. Gun to my head, Dems win both, although that may be my bias talking because I really like both Phillips and Radinovich.

As soon as you posted that, they both moved off the tie to D+1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

Well, they are polling highly competitive districts so far.  It's not that surprising.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's funny how fast these change. Last night Paulsen and Radinovich were dominating, and now both races are close.

It's almost as if small sample sizes yield unreliable results...

"One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself."

Boy they must have a lot of faith in people like us to think we care about a thing like uncertainty.

NYT should do a poll to see how many people care.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Miller leads with 100%!

[GeorgiaModerate]

WV-03 still as Titanium Safe GOP as ever

You better just be playing along with the rest of us.

Politics ain't no game 😎

It's the only game in town.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weighting by education is going to really hurt Ojeda's poll numbers. He's up 39 among white college graduates. But he's down by 29 among whites with no college degree.

Only 16% of the congressional district's residents have at least a Bachelor's degree, 84% don't.

Wow, that has to be one of the lowest percentages in the country.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They've resumed polling in at least MN-08.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-08 has now closed with the final result being Radinovich 44, Stauber 43.  Under different turnout models:

People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else: Radinovich +4
The types of people who voted in 2014: Radinovich +1
Our estimate: Radinovich +2
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness: Radinovich +2
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say: Radinovich +2
The types of people who voted in 2016: Stauber +2
Every active registered voter: Stauber +1

[GeorgiaModerate]

This thread is a bad idea.

Nah, this is the greatest thread ever. It will be 200 pages by election day.

Yeah, I don't think anyone could have designed a better attractor for Atlas members.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does the times have a place where they show the completed results?

On the live results page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oof, Miller +5 now.

Long way to go.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polite request: can we limit this thread to discussing these live polls and take the candidate merit discussions to one of the other 5,329 threads that they're already in?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we seriously writing off Ojeda based on one poll?

And an unfinished one at that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Atlas is the training ground for the Jumping to Conclusions Olympics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Last time I checked, with 420 respondents, Miller was still ahead by 6.

It did close to 45-43 briefly but has returned to 47-41.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It did close to 45-43 briefly but has returned to 47-41.

46-42 #AnotherOjedaComeback?

That's another AOC acronym.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perhaps this is what happens when you put faith in a mediocre pollster that has a small sample size, while using 2014 as the baseline for the demographics used. You get buggy numbers.

Freaking Siena is a mediocre pollster?

I've seen it all in this place.

Oh, there are worse takes than that around here.  Another poster (not Zaybay) recently called NBC/Marist "liberal propaganda polls".