Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[patzer]

I decided to make a map focused on minimizing change, incumbent protection, and compactness.

Here's what I got. Data is 2020 presidential; closest seats are the 2nd (D +9.9) and the 12th (R +9.8).

[patzer]

Tried to do an R gerrymander for Georgia. The easiest option seems to be altering Sanford Bishop's district, withdrawing it from its whiter areas and replacing them with black areas in the Atlanta area- and then using the extra breathing room to pull other red districts into Atlanta a bit, and ultimately pull the 7th out of the area and make it safe R.

All of the Dem districts here are majority-minority, the whitest of them being the 5th at 38% white and 6th at 40% white.



Eliminating the 7th does pose a risk for the Republicans though. Analyzing the red Atlanta-area districts in this map:

The 3rd was R +28.8 in 2016, and R +20.6 in 2020
The 7th was R +37.7 in 2016, and R +24.0 in 2020
The 10th was R +29.4 in 2016, and R +25.1 in 2020
The 11th was R +31.9 in 2016, and R +20.3 in 2020

The 3rd, 7th, and 11th would likely be safe for the next six years or so but it could become a dummymander by the end of the decade. But that would be the cost of trying to eliminate a D district- can't have it both ways.

(Note I explicitly did not remove any areas from the 14th given MTG's campaign against dividing her district up)

[patzer]

GA-2 is a Racial Gerrymander

Yep- I think racial gerrymanders are acceptable under the VRA?

[patzer]

GA-2 is a Racial Gerrymander

Yep- I think racial gerrymanders are acceptable under the VRA?

Not like that they aren't.

In that case I don’t think the GAGOP can reasonably eliminate a Dem district. It was already hard and risky enough even in the scenario of bringing the 2nd into Atlanta.

[patzer]

I just realized it's possible to make the 7th into a Hispanic-opportunity district. Don't think it's mandated VRA though, as the Hispanic population, while constituting a plurality, is still only 34% of the population.

[patzer]

statistics and close-up looks at the seven districts I put effort into:

So the 6th went from R +26.2 to +15.3 from 2016-20, and the 9th from R +35.8 to +22.5.

Yeah, that’s a definite dummymander, those two would go blue by the middle of the decade making a 7-7 map. And if the 1st and 12th flip it becomes 9-5.

[patzer]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

What's the purpose of the extreme gerrymanders? You don't need really obvious gerrymandering like that to get a safe 10D-4R.

[patzer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

[patzer]

I humbly propose the following map, which generates 10 majority-minority districts, of which 7 are Black-plurality and 1 is Asian-opportunity and Hispanic-opportunity (the 7th is just over 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 20% black). It does so in a mostly compact manner too. Maximizing minority representation thus is surely needed in any boundary drawing.

Any district partisanship bias is purely coincidental.

[patzer]

A little update to the map I posted: messed around a bit more and found that a reasonably safe 12-2 map is in fact possible on 2020 numbers. Still has ten majority-minority districts.

(This really is the limit though, there isn't any way to draw a 13-1)

[patzer]

A base for Georgia 2 and 2 areas each being 240k pop if the GA GOP actually wanted to carefully sneak through a winnable GA2nd.

Adding purple means the district will likely trend to get more black over the decade. Adding red will keep the district barely majority black for now but stagnant with regards to black population. If the GOP does get a swing down to the high 80's for Democratic black percentage it could come into play. Note the 2016>2020 trends. Purple itself is almost like Fayette county.
Adding purple makes the district swing exactly 3 points left from 2016 to 2020. It would likely be Safe D all decade. Adding red meanwhile makes it swing 0.2 points right.
Overall whites are leaving the black belt area all together while blacks are generally heading either towards Atlanta or towards the Purple areas.

This is also why it will be relatively hard to make a safe NC01 all decade. The GA02 with Purple is honestly relatively Urban. 525k of the population would live in Columbus/Macon/Albany/Warner Robbins . Meanwhile NC01 would really only have Pitt  and Rocky Mount which is around like 250k?.

That sort of map would definitely be helped by the shrinking of the rural black belt. Very good point.

[patzer]

Would the GA Dems be able to try to sue for this map? Under the VRA grounds that adding an extra compact black-plurality district is possible and therefore must be done.

[patzer]

This was drawn without much regard for partisan data. It is quite fair. 7 Biden and 7 Trump districts. DRA says proportionality is at -0.05% - which is a happy accident. CoI was also considered, and I have dedicated exurban seats to the SE, and SW. The 6th seeks to pair together a string of suburbs in the northern part of the metropolitan area. I sought to use the Ocmulgee-Altamaha river as a boundary but found myself having to go south of it for both population equality and compactness reasons.
I've also discovered that DeKalb and Cobb are perfect for CDs under 2020 data, which is wonderful.
DRA link

You inspired me to make a map on similar grounds (keeping counties whole wherever possible; keeping 4 districts in south Georgia), but I decided to also maximize competitive seats.

Here it is (on 2016-2020 composite election data). 10 majority-minority districts (everything but 1, 8, 9, and 14), but several of them only barely so.



I'd say a majority of those seats could easily go either way.

[patzer]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

[patzer]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

[patzer]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

[patzer]

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.

I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

I feel like the 2030 GA redistricting will be pretty interesting insofar as 1) it’s fairly likely to be led by Democrats, 2) there could easily be another seat by then, and 3) Northern Atlanta could well be given both a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity district.

[patzer]

It seems very hard for many to understand the VRA. Sigh. There is nothing illegal about the map.

Sorry if I miscommunicated- not saying the current map is illegal. Saying that in 2030, if GA redistricting is under Dem control, they may decide to make a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity seat in the Atlanta area.

[patzer]

Alright, thanks.

Here's an example of a potential 2030 map with new Asian- and Hispanic-opportunity districts; this one's fairly aggressive while remaining vaguely sensible. For demographics+district populations I simply assumed 2010-20 trends continuing for the 2020-30 period (may be a wrong assumption but the best we have). Stats are 2020 presidential. https://davesredistricting.org/join/f95da28f-d660-41a0-860c-f303258cae74

10th:
50% white, 25% Asian, 14% black, 10% Hispanic in 2020
41% white, 31% Asian, 15% black, 11% Hispanic in 2030

9th:
35% Hispanic, 30% white, 24% black, 11% Asian in 2020
37% Hispanic, 25% black, 25% white, 13% Asian in 2030

It'll be interesting to look back at this thread in ten years and see how close to the mark I am    By 2030 a map like this should be 11 safe D - 3 safe R - 1 tossup.

[patzer]

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .

Not too hard to make 5 black plurality seats in the Atlanta area. Here's a quick attempt from me, based on the new congressional map. All I really did was unpacking the 13th and moving a few other districts around a bit to fit. https://davesredistricting.org/join/5779c392-23da-47a0-9dd8-2db0b8f7f893

4th: 55% black, 26% white
5th: 53% black, 36% white
7th: 33% black, 28% white, 25% Hispanic
11th: 47% black, 35% white
13th: 54% black, 32% white

[patzer]

If trends go well for the Dems in Georgia, the clever way to do a court drawn map would be along the lines of this (assumes 2010-20 population trends continue for 2020-30). https://davesredistricting.org/join/54773f5b-e1b7-4ee9-8fea-51d38068b89c




Strictly speaking it's something like 2 safe D, 3 safe R, and 9 swing- but by 2030 if most of those "swing" districts tend to go for the Dems more, it would be a good shout. So you get to have a map that's in theory fair/competitive but in practice favours Democrats.

1st: Trump +11.0%, Trump +8.0%
2nd: Clinton +5.8%, Biden +8.5%
3rd: Clinton +1.3%, Biden +5.6%
6th: Trump +8.9%, Biden +3.0%
7th: Clinton +1.6%, Biden +15.5%
10th: Trump +14.5%, Trump +5.7%
11th: Trump +7.6%, Biden +4.9%
12th: Clinton +2.1%, Biden +5.7%
13th: Trump +6.8%, Trump +1.4%

[patzer]

here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

Here's what it might look like to restore the old GA-6 onto the rest of the current congressional map.

[patzer]

And here's a hypothetical of what both the Section 2 and 14th Amendment claims may entail. Just be aware that Milligan dealt only with the former, and the latter are also going to the court next session in the SC case. Though I would not expect this type of claim to be destroyed either, like some were thinking could happen to Section 2, since it historically has been White voters tool to get appropriate maps as well in the 90s and 00s. You need to prove that voters were treated differently and improperly (beyond VRA necessity) on the basis of race during redistricting, and the tentacles plus touch point that peicemealed just enough Black voters around to keep White Democrats elected easily failed this test.

 

Even in that scenario, wouldn't it be acceptable to just transform the 7th into the fourth Atlanta black-majority district like this?

[patzer]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

[patzer]

It's very easy to have 6 minority opporutnity districts in only the Atlanta area alone. By the end of the decade, you can probably get 7 in the metro. Republicans would be smart to pass an independent redistricting law before Democrats inevitably gain a trifecta. Democrats will be able to easily draw at least 9 solidly blue seats next decade if they get the pen.

9 next decade? A Dem-controlled Georgia would easily be able to draw 10 likely Dem seats now in a way that doesn't look too ugly.