Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Oryxslayer]

This Map is going to get struck down too?

What would be the New Map?

TL:DR:

There are two (consolidated) cases against Georgia's maps in district court. 

The first is Pendergrass v. Raffensperger which challenges 3 state legislative districts in each chamber, and the single GA-13/West Atlanta congressional region under Section 2 of the VRA. These plaintiffs asked for a Preliminary Injunction in late 2021 for the 2022 elections. This request was denied even though the judge saw very favorable merits because the Supreme Court had given guidance to liberally apply Purcell to all such cases. Case was on the back-burner but post-Milligan has expedited scheduling for the fall.

The second case is Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia. This case challenges the same districts under Section 2 but adds on a few more in the legislative chambers. They also have racial gerrymandering claims under the 14th Amendment versus the legislative and congressional maps. The sum total of their claims would likely lead to maps with equal partisan opportunity, but these additional claims meant no PI appeals even after 2022. Case currently is following the set schedule for the later fall.



There is only a little difference in terms of the congressional claims. Both make Section 2 VRA claims against the cracking in the Eastern and Southern suburbs, and provide evidence on how GA-13 presently is hyper-packed. See my previous post on the map which was included in the example map included in Pendergrass and what relief could look like.

NAACP though brings fourth an additional Racial Gerrymandering claim against the congressional map. This claim is made against GA-06, and it is seemingly the most by-the-numbers of such claims which are usually even more ambiguous that Section 2. District 6 had an excess of 650 people after the 2020 census, only a single precinct needed to be removed from the already-compact district to make it legal for the 2020s. It was electing a minority candidate of choice. Instead barely half of the population was retained, most of the districts Voters of Color were removed, and uber-white areas thrown in. Usually relief for such claims is more nebulous - see SC - but here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This Map is going to get struck down too?

What would be the New Map?

TL:DR:

There are two (consolidated) cases against Georgia's maps in district court.  

The first is Pendergrass v. Raffensperger which challenges 3 state legislative districts in each chamber, and the single GA-13/West Atlanta congressional region under Section 2 of the VRA. These plaintiffs asked for a Preliminary Injunction in late 2021 for the 2022 elections. This request was denied even though the judge saw very favorable merits because the Supreme Court had given guidance to liberally apply Purcell to all such cases. Case was on the back-burner but post-Milligan has expedited scheduling for the fall.

The second case is Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia. This case challenges the same districts under Section 2 but adds on a few more in the legislative chambers. They also have racial gerrymandering claims under the 14th Amendment versus the legislative and congressional maps. The sum total of their claims would likely lead to maps with equal partisan opportunity, but these additional claims meant no PI appeals even after 2022. Case currently is following the set schedule for the later fall.



There is only a little difference in terms of the congressional claims. Both make Section 2 VRA claims against the cracking in the Eastern and Southern suburbs, and provide evidence on how GA-13 presently is hyper-packed. See my previous post on the map which was included in the example map included in Pendergrass and what relief could look like.

NAACP though brings fourth an additional Racial Gerrymandering claim against the congressional map. This claim is made against GA-06, and it is seemingly the most by-the-numbers of such claims which are usually even more ambiguous that Section 2. District 6 had an excess of 650 people after the 2020 census, only a single precinct needed to be removed from the already-compact district to make it legal for the 2020s. It was electing a minority candidate of choice. Instead barely half of the population was retained, most of the districts Voters of Color were removed, and uber-white areas thrown in. Usually relief for such claims is more nebulous - see SC - but here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

Thank you for this summary!

One question I have is does it matter GA-13 is a “black pack” if you already have achieved a proportional share of black seats (4/14)? Is the argument that GA-13 should give some black precincts to GA-04 and GA-05 to make them more reliable, or to reconfigure Atlanta by unpacking 13 and creating 4 black seats in Atlanta? I don’t see how one can argue GA needs 5 black seats under VRA or 14th amendment since 4 black seats is already proportional; usually the way VRA works is you must make as many minority districts as possible until the point of proportionality. You could squeeze another black district out of a place like MD in theory, but since the current map already has enough black seats there’s no claim against it.

[patzer]

here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

Here's what it might look like to restore the old GA-6 onto the rest of the current congressional map.

[Oryxslayer]

Thank you for this summary!

One question I have is does it matter GA-13 is a “black pack” if you already have achieved a proportional share of black seats (4/14)? Is the argument that GA-13 should give some black precincts to GA-04 and GA-05 to make them more reliable, or to reconfigure Atlanta by unpacking 13 and creating 4 black seats in Atlanta? I don’t see how one can argue GA needs 5 black seats under VRA or 14th amendment since 4 black seats is already proportional; usually the way VRA works is you must make as many minority districts as possible until the point of proportionality. You could squeeze another black district out of a place like MD in theory, but since the current map already has enough black seats there’s no claim against it.

The plaintiffs would point out that 33% is closer to 5/14 or 35.7% than 4/14 or 28.6% in a similar manner to how in Alabama 27.2% is not 2/7 28.6% but it is certainly closer to the true population distribution than 1/7 or 14.3%. Especially if/when their advanced alternative districts follow other traditional redistricting principles better than the state's plans.

The NAACP plaintiffs in particular would note that their case brings forth a coalition of damaged parties Georgia's Latino political organizations, most notably GALEO. And while this is more relevant for state legislative seats, they would point to their RPV to show how African Americans and Georgia Hispanics behave identically, there are large Latino populations in Cobb as well as Gwinnett, and both groups would be better serviced by 6/14 than the present 5/14.

But I'm not their lawyer and I'm not looking to prove their cases, only summarize the many documents that are thankfully publicly available here.

here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

Here's what it might look like to restore the old GA-6 onto the rest of the current congressional map.

And here's a hypothetical of what both the Section 2 and 14th Amendment claims may entail. Just be aware that Milligan dealt only with the former, and the latter are also going to the court next session in the SC case. Though I would not expect this type of claim to be destroyed either, like some were thinking could happen to Section 2, since it historically has been White voters tool to get appropriate maps as well in the 90s and 00s. You need to prove that voters were treated differently and improperly (beyond VRA necessity) on the basis of race during redistricting, and the tentacles plus touch point that peicemealed just enough Black voters around to keep White Democrats elected easily failed this test.

 

[patzer]

And here's a hypothetical of what both the Section 2 and 14th Amendment claims may entail. Just be aware that Milligan dealt only with the former, and the latter are also going to the court next session in the SC case. Though I would not expect this type of claim to be destroyed either, like some were thinking could happen to Section 2, since it historically has been White voters tool to get appropriate maps as well in the 90s and 00s. You need to prove that voters were treated differently and improperly (beyond VRA necessity) on the basis of race during redistricting, and the tentacles plus touch point that peicemealed just enough Black voters around to keep White Democrats elected easily failed this test.

 

Even in that scenario, wouldn't it be acceptable to just transform the 7th into the fourth Atlanta black-majority district like this?

[Oryxslayer]

And here's a hypothetical of what both the Section 2 and 14th Amendment claims may entail. Just be aware that Milligan dealt only with the former, and the latter are also going to the court next session in the SC case. Though I would not expect this type of claim to be destroyed either, like some were thinking could happen to Section 2, since it historically has been White voters tool to get appropriate maps as well in the 90s and 00s. You need to prove that voters were treated differently and improperly (beyond VRA necessity) on the basis of race during redistricting, and the tentacles plus touch point that peicemealed just enough Black voters around to keep White Democrats elected easily failed this test.

 

Even in that scenario, wouldn't it be acceptable to just transform the 7th into the fourth Atlanta black-majority district like this?

Like I said to ProgressiveModerate in the previous post, I'm not here to argue for the plaintiffs or the defendants. Just summarizing whats in their (amended) complaints. And they have provided maps, one of which is on the previous page though admittedly from Pendergrass, which don't exactly resemble that.

Reminder to this entire discussion, filed cases are not automatic victories, and sometimes the metaphorical baby ends up split. It'll probably be another month or two at the minimum.


Now personally, Like the "50% BVAP but Trump+1" districts which show up every now and again, it doesn't exactly pass the legal smell test. When the whole point of your hypothetically won suit is to increase minority access, approvable relief doesn't come from making a performing majority-minority seat into a performing majority minority seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank you for this summary!

One question I have is does it matter GA-13 is a “black pack” if you already have achieved a proportional share of black seats (4/14)? Is the argument that GA-13 should give some black precincts to GA-04 and GA-05 to make them more reliable, or to reconfigure Atlanta by unpacking 13 and creating 4 black seats in Atlanta? I don’t see how one can argue GA needs 5 black seats under VRA or 14th amendment since 4 black seats is already proportional; usually the way VRA works is you must make as many minority districts as possible until the point of proportionality. You could squeeze another black district out of a place like MD in theory, but since the current map already has enough black seats there’s no claim against it.

The plaintiffs would point out that 33% is closer to 5/14 or 35.7% than 4/14 or 28.6% in a similar manner to how in Alabama 27.2% is not 2/7 28.6% but it is certainly closer to the true population distribution than 1/7 or 14.3%. Especially if/when their advanced alternative districts follow other traditional redistricting principles better than the state's plans.

The NAACP plaintiffs in particular would note that their case brings forth a coalition of damaged parties Georgia's Latino political organizations, most notably GALEO. And while this is more relevant for state legislative seats, they would point to their RPV to show how African Americans and Georgia Hispanics behave identically, there are large Latino populations in Cobb as well as Gwinnett, and both groups would be better serviced by 6/14 than the present 5/14.

Ye ig that is a fair point - true proportionality would be between 4/14 and 5/14 black seats, and which is closer depends on if you use total population, VAP, or CVAP. I think because so much of GA's black population is clustered in Atlanta, it makes it much easier to draw majority black seats without having to do a bunch of weird tentacles or anything, so at face value this case might be stronger than AL and LA in some regards.

I would disagree on the idea GA Blacks and Hispanics behave identically and should therefore be lumped together. GA Hispanics are less D than blacks, and have seen further swings rightwards than blacks in recent elections. Generally, the Black and Hispanic communities are seen as distinct. At the same time, GA is only 50% white so having 7/14 seats be majority-minority would make sense on a fair map, but 1 or 2 of those seats would likely still functionally be a white majority due to Hispanic and Asian communities being low turnout.

One big question is if this case is successful, would the legislature or the court redraw? If the legislature redraws, they likely trade precincts with the 4 existing Atlanta packs to unpack GA-13 and make GA-07 majority black, perhaps shifting the 4Atlanta packs slightly to the South to pick up more blacks but while still allowing them to crack the Northern Atlanta suburbs without ceding another D seat.

If the Court redraws under the guise of least change, my guess is they'd do 4 black seats in Atlanta and shift the current GA-07 North to be a D leaning Hispanic-Asian coalition seat of sorts, so you'd end up with a 8R-6D map. The Southern part of the current GA-07 which has a notable black population would be used for one of the majority black seats. One of GA-06 or GA-11 would be cut and become the new majority black seat. The issue is compared to AL, least change map is pretty hard since you're dealing with 4 majority black districts. Here is my attempt:

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the case is successful, would redrawing the map go directly to the court or would the legislature get a chance to fix it's issues?

If it goes to the legislature, is it basically guaranteed the GOP would basically keep the current gerrymander but make all 4 Atlanta seats majority black? Would the court uphold this map?

If the map goes to the court, would they draw a least change map, or just redraw the entire thing? How can a least change map even be done; it seems like all districts in and around greater Atlanta have to shift to make a reasonable map with 4 black Atlanta seats.

[Oryxslayer]

If the case is successful, would redrawing the map go directly to the court or would the legislature get a chance to fix it's issues?

If it goes to the legislature, is it basically guaranteed the GOP would basically keep the current gerrymander but make all 4 Atlanta seats majority black? Would the court uphold this map?

If the map goes to the court, would they draw a least change map, or just redraw the entire thing? How can a least change map even be done; it seems like all districts in and around greater Atlanta have to shift to make a reasonable map with 4 black Atlanta seats.

No idea on the first two. Usually with federal litigation the legislature gets a deadline and if they fail or the court finds their new maps lacking they step in. For example, the 2003/4 Redistricting forced by GOP-led racial gerrymandering suits failed to pass specifically a State House map of the three ordered remaps. The Democrats controlled that chamber and did not want to give up power to a long-suppressed GOP. This led to the court appointing a special master who then got Nathaniel Persily (remember him from PA, this was partially where he got started) to draw a new and compliant map.

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the case is successful, would redrawing the map go directly to the court or would the legislature get a chance to fix it's issues?

If it goes to the legislature, is it basically guaranteed the GOP would basically keep the current gerrymander but make all 4 Atlanta seats majority black? Would the court uphold this map?

If the map goes to the court, would they draw a least change map, or just redraw the entire thing? How can a least change map even be done; it seems like all districts in and around greater Atlanta have to shift to make a reasonable map with 4 black Atlanta seats.

No idea on the first two. Usually with federal litigation the legislature gets a deadline and if they fail or the court finds their new maps lacking they step in. For example, the 2003/4 Redistricting forced by GOP-led racial gerrymandering suits failed to pass specifically a State House map of the three ordered remaps. The Democrats controlled that chamber and did not want to give up power to a long-suppressed GOP. This led to the court appointing a special master who then got Nathaniel Persily (remember him from PA, this was partially where he got started) to draw a new and compliant map.

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

Yeah. I was trying to play around with a least change GA map.

Districts 1, 2, 8, and 12 obv don't need to be touched cause they outside metro Atlanta.

However, it's really hard to do a map that doesn't touch all the metro Atlanta seats. This is because in order to make 4 black seats, the current 4 "packs" (4, 5, 7, and 13) all need to shift on net south and east to balance black population and unpack 13. This leaves 3 and 10 underpopulated, so they have to grab some of 14 and 9 to make up the difference, and then 6 and 11 have to shift South.

[patzer]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

[Spectator]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

It's very easy to have 6 minority opporutnity districts in only the Atlanta area alone. By the end of the decade, you can probably get 7 in the metro. Republicans would be smart to pass an independent redistricting law before Democrats inevitably gain a trifecta. Democrats will be able to easily draw at least 9 solidly blue seats next decade if they get the pen.

[patzer]

It's very easy to have 6 minority opporutnity districts in only the Atlanta area alone. By the end of the decade, you can probably get 7 in the metro. Republicans would be smart to pass an independent redistricting law before Democrats inevitably gain a trifecta. Democrats will be able to easily draw at least 9 solidly blue seats next decade if they get the pen.

9 next decade? A Dem-controlled Georgia would easily be able to draw 10 likely Dem seats now in a way that doesn't look too ugly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

It's very easy to have 6 minority opporutnity districts in only the Atlanta area alone. By the end of the decade, you can probably get 7 in the metro. Republicans would be smart to pass an independent redistricting law before Democrats inevitably gain a trifecta. Democrats will be able to easily draw at least 9 solidly blue seats next decade if they get the pen.

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

[Nyvin]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

[Del Tachi]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

What %Black is this GA-05?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

Ye, but if you're relying on Dems to only make gains with the Atlanta seats, they need like a Trump + 17 seat. Combine that will downballot lag, and *potential* reversion or stalling of the leftwards shifts of some suburbs if the GOP gets it's act together by the end of the decade.

Also, it seems like at least right now, GA GOP is more competent than many other GOPs, and they have decent incumbents in many of these seats, so they really are the type that could outrun Pres numbers by like 10 points or smtg.

[Spectator]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

Ye, but if you're relying on Dems to only make gains with the Atlanta seats, they need like a Trump + 17 seat. Combine that will downballot lag, and *potential* reversion or stalling of the leftwards shifts of some suburbs if the GOP gets it's act together by the end of the decade.

Also, it seems like at least right now, GA GOP is more competent than many other GOPs, and they have decent incumbents in many of these seats, so they really are the type that could outrun Pres numbers by like 10 points or smtg.

A lot will depend on the 2026 gubernatorial primary on which direction the party goes. Does it go with Burt Jones and go the way of the AZ GOP, or does it go with Raffensperger and continue the course of pragmatic governance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

Ye, but if you're relying on Dems to only make gains with the Atlanta seats, they need like a Trump + 17 seat. Combine that will downballot lag, and *potential* reversion or stalling of the leftwards shifts of some suburbs if the GOP gets it's act together by the end of the decade.

Also, it seems like at least right now, GA GOP is more competent than many other GOPs, and they have decent incumbents in many of these seats, so they really are the type that could outrun Pres numbers by like 10 points or smtg.

A lot will depend on the 2026 gubernatorial primary on which direction the party goes. Does it go with Burt Jones and go the way of the AZ GOP, or does it go with Raffensperger and continue the course of pragmatic governance.

Georgia uses open primaries, so I wonder how much of the direction the GOP goes depends upon how many Dems and Indies vote for in the R primary for the more moderate/mainstream GOP candidates.

[Torie]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

[GALeftist]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

[Torie]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

There are 5 black performing CD's, plus whites are beginning to vote for blacks in the inner parts of the Atlanta MSA, so the VRA probably does not apply to the subject 5 CD's at all. Once the blacks get their quota, nothing further is protected, even if GA-02 could be drawn to get to 50% BVAP, triggering Gingles. In that sense, GA is like MD. You can draw another black performing CD, but do not have to.

Morgan, Walton and Barrow are in the Atlanta MSA, and that is all that counts. One MSA county is not more equal than others. So one focuses on what entails the smallest county cuts, subject to erosity concerns. Counties take precedence over cities when it comes to splitting. You give DeKalb and Cobb their own CD's since it leads to just tiny county micro-chops, which are favored. In fact, the map amazingly is all micro-chops except in two instances, so it is clearly the highest scoring possible map.

One follows the Muon2 rules mindlessly as it were, wherever they might lead. They generally lead to a pretty good place. One plus to them is that they give points to keeping multi county MSA's together, which tends often to lead to competitive districts, since it forces the placing of cities and their suburbs in one CD.

[GALeftist]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

There are 5 black performing CD's, plus whites are beginning to vote for blacks, so the VRA probably does not apply to the subject 5 CD's at all. Once the blacks get their quota, nothing further is protected, even if GA-02 could be drawn to get to 50% BVAP, triggering Gingles.

Morgan, Walton and Barrow are in the Atlanta MSA, and that is all that counts. One MSA county is not more equal than others. Counties take precedence over cities when it comes to splitting. You give DeKalb and Cobb their own CD's since it leads to just tiny county micro-chops, which are favored. In fact, the map amazingly is all micro-chops except in two instances, so it is clearly the highest scoring possible map.

One follows the Muon2 rules mindlessly as it were, wherever they might lead. They generally lead to a pretty good place. One plus to them is that they give points to keeping multi county MSA's together, which tends often to lead to competitive districts, since it forces the placing or cities and their suburbs in one CD.

Ah I see, cool. Not saying that your map is suboptimal from that perspective, just my subjective preference for a different configuration

[Nyvin]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

If Muan2 Rules dictate that that GA-12 and GA-9 are drawn then the rules are trash.

[Torie]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

If Muan2 Rules dictate that that GA-12 and GA-9 are drawn then the rules are trash.

Thank you for sharing. You can make the CD's prettier (less rose), by chopping the Augusta MSA. (https://davesredistricting.org/join/2442d6a5-d5c7-4ac4-8d16-80db4b41ffdd). Pick your poison. It's Muon2 btw. Cheers.