Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[DrScholl]

It's really not hard to get two Democratic seats outside of Metro Atlanta. Augusta to Savannah would be fairly clean and safe, while Albany, Macon and Columbus as shown on that map would be secure too.

[Spectator]

Thoughts on this 8 D - 6 R Map? The Atlanta Metro seats are very clean and compact. The rural districts were harder to be made fully compact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23b5b96e-273c-45bb-89b0-bab1ec70a33f

I think this is probably what a non-partisan map in Georgia would likely look like. In any fair world, Democrats would have 6 seats in metro Atlanta alone. The Augusta to Savannah seat is another natural seat, along with the current GA-02.

[lfromnj]

LOL
The part of Milton removed from GA06 is actually a relatively R leaning part.

[Bacon King]

This map honestly looks closer to something I'd expect to see from an independent commission, not a creation of Republican officeholders. Honestly this map would only need a few relatively minor changes to become something I'd genuinely consider fair (mostly just keeping the suburbs and exurbs in different districts)

behold! this bad failomander has evolved into... A FAIR MAP?

(click either image to embiggen and view in DRA)







edit: partisan lean map

[Spectator]

This map honestly looks closer to something I'd expect to see from an independent commission, not a creation of Republican officeholders. Honestly this map would only need a few relatively minor changes to become something I'd genuinely consider fair (mostly just keeping the suburbs and exurbs in different districts)

behold! this bad failomander has evolved into... A FAIR MAP?

(click either image to embiggen and view in DRA)







edit: partisan lean map

Are you serious? Their idea of drawing out one of McBath or Bourdeaux involves creating a lean Republican district that Biden might win anyway in 2024? That’s an own goal.

[Adam Griffin]

It's really not hard to get two Democratic seats outside of Metro Atlanta. Augusta to Savannah would be fairly clean and safe, while Albany, Macon and Columbus as shown on that map would be secure too.

And it's not even hard, spacious or deviates from historical GA reapportionment precedent. Look at the beauty of it!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's really not hard to get two Democratic seats outside of Metro Atlanta. Augusta to Savannah would be fairly clean and safe, while Albany, Macon and Columbus as shown on that map would be secure too.

And it's not even hard, spacious or deviates from historical GA reapportionment precedent. Look at the beauty of it!

This guy gets it.

[Adam Griffin]

It's really not hard to get two Democratic seats outside of Metro Atlanta. Augusta to Savannah would be fairly clean and safe, while Albany, Macon and Columbus as shown on that map would be secure too.

And it's not even hard, spacious or deviates from historical GA reapportionment precedent. Look at the beauty of it!

This guy gets it.

Can't wait for 2031 after GOP judges completely dismantle Sections 2 & 5 of the VRA and we get a 9D-5R (or 10D-5R) map!

01: Biden +10
02: Biden +12
03: Trump +33
04: Trump +29
05: Trump +35
06: Trump +57
07: Trump +52
08: Trump +4
09: Trump +20
10: Biden +25
11: Biden +36
12: Biden +45
13: Biden +43
14: Biden +41

[Bacon King]

Are you serious? Their idea of drawing out one of McBath or Bourdeaux involves creating a lean Republican district that Biden might win anyway in 2024? That’s an own goal.

But wait, there's more! They also left Loudermilk with a more vulnerable district lmao

[Bacon King]

Can't wait for 2031 after GOP judges completely dismantle Sections 2 & 5 of the VRA and we get a 9D-5R (or 10D-5R) map!

01: Biden +10
02: Biden +12
03: Trump +33
04: Trump +29
05: Trump +35
06: Trump +57
07: Trump +52
08: Trump +4
09: Trump +20
10: Biden +25
11: Biden +36
12: Biden +45
13: Biden +43
14: Biden +41

If they're throwing out the VRA we could imo definitely net a couple more seats by unpacking ATL

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map flips one Democratic seat to the GOP and makes another one very likely to fall if recent trends continue, all in a State that is trending D fast, and red avatars in this thread are calling it good news? Of course the GOP could do worse than that, but they certainly don't deserve brownie points for such an egregious gerrymander.

[S019]

This map flips one Democratic seat to the GOP and makes another one very likely to fall if recent trends continue, all in a State that is trending D fast, and red avatars in this thread are calling it good news? Of course the GOP could do worse than that, but they certainly don't deserve brownie points for such an egregious gerrymander.

It's not even a given that that GA-06 falls in 2022 given how GA has been trending, especially in that area, said seat swung D between 2018 and 2020 and GA has consistently swung D since 2014, even if McBath does lose, I'll go out on a limb and say it'll be less than the 2020 margin. It is a gerrymander, but it's a soft one, not an egregious one, an egregious gerrymander would be if they drew tentacles from the Tennessee border to Marrietta and Lawrenceville.

[patzer]

I humbly propose the following map, which generates 10 majority-minority districts, of which 7 are Black-plurality and 1 is Asian-opportunity and Hispanic-opportunity (the 7th is just over 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 20% black). It does so in a mostly compact manner too. Maximizing minority representation thus is surely needed in any boundary drawing.

Any district partisanship bias is purely coincidental.

[Tintrlvr]

I humbly propose the following map, which generates 10 majority-minority districts, of which 7 are Black-plurality and 1 is Asian-opportunity and Hispanic-opportunity (the 7th is just over 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 20% black). It does so in a mostly compact manner too. Maximizing minority representation thus is surely needed in any boundary drawing.

Any district partisanship bias is purely coincidental.

I'd been thinking about this. Probably the most effective Democratic gerrymander involves a bunch of Atlanta-south tendrils to create barely black-majority districts.

Anyway, here was my 8D-6R map, which is pretty similar to the one proposed above but developed independently:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8c3a345-7e6a-4900-8581-cc74ecc99039

If you want to gerrymander without tendrils, I think you could still squeeze out another Democratic district if you combine Savannah with Augusta and then send Athens into the Atlanta metro while pushing the black districts on the south side of Atlanta out further.

[Spectator]

I humbly propose the following map, which generates 10 majority-minority districts, of which 7 are Black-plurality and 1 is Asian-opportunity and Hispanic-opportunity (the 7th is just over 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 20% black). It does so in a mostly compact manner too. Maximizing minority representation thus is surely needed in any boundary drawing.

Any district partisanship bias is purely coincidental.

I'd been thinking about this. Probably the most effective Democratic gerrymander involves a bunch of Atlanta-south tendrils to create barely black-majority districts.

Anyway, here was my 8D-6R map, which is pretty similar to the one proposed above but developed independently:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8c3a345-7e6a-4900-8581-cc74ecc99039

If you want to gerrymander without tendrils, I think you could still squeeze out another Democratic district if you combine Savannah with Augusta and then send Athens into the Atlanta metro while pushing the black districts on the south side of Atlanta out further.

Yes, Athens to Atlanta metro (Rockdale, Newton, and bluest parts of Gwinnett that are left over from a GA-07 that is entirely within Gwinnett.

The other six blue Atlanta area seats would be:
1. Cobb County seat
2. DeKalb County seat
3. Gwinnett County seat
4. North Fulton seat
5. Remainder of south Fulton, Douglas, and Fayette
6. Henry, Clayton, other exurban counties.

The. The two other non-Atlanta blue seats with one being Augusta to Savannah and the other being a slightly bluer version of the current GA-02.

If Forsyth County flips by the end of the decade, a neat 10D-4R map is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

[patzer]

A little update to the map I posted: messed around a bit more and found that a reasonably safe 12-2 map is in fact possible on 2020 numbers. Still has ten majority-minority districts.

(This really is the limit though, there isn't any way to draw a 13-1)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A little update to the map I posted: messed around a bit more and found that a reasonably safe 12-2 map is in fact possible on 2020 numbers. Still has ten majority-minority districts.

(This really is the limit though, there isn't any way to draw a 13-1)

You've outdone yourself, Good sir.

[lfromnj]

Also honestly knowing the Georgia GOP keeping Georgia 2nd not majority black is probably an accident.

[Adam Griffin]

Also honestly knowing the Georgia GOP keeping Georgia 2nd not majority black is probably an accident.

Why would they? It's not a requirement to be majority-black (GA-2 wasn't in 2011, either; 49.5% BVAP), they've kept the district roughly equivalent in size despite losing 10% of its population over the past decade *while moving it 5+ points to the right*, no other adjacent seats are in danger of flipping now and therefore wouldn't require black packing, and with the overall trends of the region, they have a much better chance than some think of picking the seat up next time it's open and/or there's a great year for the GOP with somebody who's not 74 year-old incumbent Sanford Bishop.

[Roll Roons]

Someone clearly objected to drawing the northern mountain CDs into Atlanta.  That's my biggest takeaway from this, even if it gets tweaked significantly. 

My guess is that the GA GOP's donor base largely lives in places like Buckhead, Cobb and north Fulton and they don't want to be represented by lunatics like MTG or Andrew Clyde.

[Idaho Conservative]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

[GALeftist]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

It's not like black voters aren't willing to elect white democrats. Hell, Steve Cohen has held a VRA seat in Memphis since 2006 and has absolutely demolished every primary opponent. If Bourdeaux loses, it'll be her own fault for dumb blue dog stunts like that letter she sent to Pelosi which alienate her constituents.

[Roll Roons]

Assuming GA-07 is turned into a vote sink, I really don't see why Bourdeaux would be especially vulnerable in a primary. Not every white Democrat in a diversifying seat will be caught napping like Joe Crowley.

[Idaho Conservative]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

It's not like black voters aren't willing to elect white democrats. Hell, Steve Cohen has held a VRA seat in Memphis since 2006 and has absolutely demolished every primary opponent. If Bourdeaux loses, it'll be her own fault for dumb blue dog stunts like that letter she sent to Pelosi which alienate her constituents.

black dem voters are usually more moderate than their white counterparts, I think he was referring to rave more than ideology. 

[Adam Griffin]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

You are assuming I endorse this kind of behavior (I don't). It is what it is - but it is a reality, there is precedent for it, and that's what I'm commenting on here.

But the real question is: what happened to the 11-3 GOP map you kept saying would easily happen?