COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Skill and Chance]

So basically it's August again, but this time aimed at the North.  I am moderately concerned, but as long as the 2 new pills still work, we only need to buy a month or two so they can be widely distributed.

[Skill and Chance]

This may or may not be true, but as of right now I still think every county should not take any chances and wait for more data before agreeing with South Africa's health minister

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464327805836083201

I've seen data from Portugal (86%) and Gibraltar (100% vaccinated) suggesting the vaccinated represent most of the hospitalizations, which is why countries were panicking yesterday.  However, the death rate is better than when people were not vaccinated.  

Also, we have no idea whether the people dying are immunocompromised. 

If Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated then it would be physically impossible for an unvaccinated person to get the virus because no unvaccinated people exist.

Yeah.  But there was a time when people were no vaccinated.  I'm making comparisons to that period. It's my fault for not clarifying. 

If Gibraltar's population is statistically large enough, this should provide strong data on how well vaccines slow transmission of the new variant.

[Skill and Chance]

Masks are definitely not costless. 

I have been forced to teach wearing a mask this semester, and it is a total pain in the ass.  The worst of it is during student presentations.  Half of the students don’t speak loudly enough to be heard in the back of the class wearing a mask, and I have to constantly be asking them to speak louder.

Last year, we were allowed to use face shields, but for some reason my university decided to ban them this semester despite the fact that we also have a vaccine mandate (which is a very good thing!) for all faculty and students.

My university has both mask and vaccine mandates in place as well. As I've said before, I expect for college campuses to cling on to mask mandates for longer than most businesses and institutions. At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if mask mandates are still in force on most campuses a year or two from now. They may even become permanent.

If that happens, mask mandates will probably become a factor in where kids decide to go to college.

Well, I'd expect for the vast majority of college campuses to have such mandates in force. Exceptions to this would be more conservative universities, such as Brigham Young University, Liberty University, and Hillsdale College, to give a few examples that spring to mind. The Ivy League schools will certainly keep such mandates in force for as long as they deem it necessary.

BYU actually has a mask mandate in effect today.

Liberty and Hillsdale dropped theirs at the beginning of the fall semester. 

[Skill and Chance]

This looks interesting



-As expected, a lot of vaccinated Trump voters in retirement areas of Florida and a lot of unvaccinated Biden voters in the cultural South (particularly in Atlanta)

-Less well known is the high concentration of vaccinated Trump voters in Appalachia (!)

-On the other hand, vaccination rates are even lower than would be expected in the Ozarks

-Little or no evidence of an anti-vax granola left effect as NorCal and the Pacific NW have higher vaccination rates than predicted by election results

-Western NM/Eastern AZ are doing really well and look like the Northeast here

-Southside VA looks like the Deep South here and it spills into NE NC

Image Source: https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1490438915156676610/photo/1

[Skill and Chance]

Something that is probably worth repeating: The majority of the unvaccinated are probably Trump supporters, but the majority of Trump supporters are vaccinated.

Yes, absolutely.

[Skill and Chance]

This looks interesting



-As expected, a lot of vaccinated Trump voters in retirement areas of Florida and a lot of unvaccinated Biden voters in the cultural South (particularly in Atlanta)

-Less well known is the high concentration of vaccinated Trump voters in Appalachia (!)

-On the other hand, vaccination rates are even lower than would be expected in the Ozarks

-Little or no evidence of an anti-vax granola left effect as NorCal and the Pacific NW have higher vaccination rates than predicted by election results

-Western NM/Eastern AZ are doing really well and look like the Northeast here

-Southside VA looks like the Deep South here and it spills into NE NC

Image Source: https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1490438915156676610/photo/1

Fascinating map.
Why no data from VT?

IDK.  VA also didn't have county level vax data until about 6 months ago.  Based on the statewide data and the population distribution, VT is likely to be near uniformly high like the rest of of New England.