2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ is more of an outlier. YouGov has been steady at 8-10 for months.

[wbrocks67]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

Suburbs are coming back for downballot republicans, because they want a check for Biden if he were to become president; just like they did in 2016 with Clinton.

Most polls show plurality of Americans thinking Trump will win.

[wbrocks67]

MO-02 (PPP)

Schupp 45%
Wagner 42%

Favorabilities:
Schupp 27/18
Wagner 38/36

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MO-02_poll.pdf

MO-02 feels like VA-10. Schupp isn't going to beat Wagner like Wexton did to Comstock, but it feels like one of those suburban counties that is rapidly shifting left where the R congresswoman is still acting like she's gonna hold on when the trends are clearly showing something different.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ is more of an outlier. YouGov has been steady at 8-10 for months.

Generic ballot (NPR/Marist/PBS Newshour)

Democratic 49%
Republican 43%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf

Was D 48/40.

Another outlier.

And Civiqs, much like YouGov, has been steady at 7-9 points, also for *months* now.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Not to mention the 538 average has been 7-8 all year long as well. So 6 isn't too far off, but anything 5 and below would yes, be an outlier.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ is more of an outlier. YouGov has been steady at 8-10 for months.

Generic ballot (NPR/Marist/PBS Newshour)

Democratic 49%
Republican 43%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf

Was D 48/40.

Another outlier.

And Civiqs, much like YouGov, has been steady at 7-9 points, also for *months* now.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Not to mention the 538 average has been 7-8 all year long as well. So 6 isn't too far off, but anything 5 and below would yes, be an outlier.

I thought you didn’t like online polls.

I don't like sh**tty online polls. YouGov and Civiqs aren't the best, but they are better than junk like Change.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov: GCB D+11

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jupxi93uza/20200817_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Wow, the DCCC has reserved $5.5 MILLION in ads to protect Unbeatable Titan Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s seat. Link

Reminds me of this wbrocks post:

Not to mention, there's no way Daines is +6 right now if the GOP is spending $6M just this month in Montana. Same with Georgia.

It's mutually beneficial for the Ds though. High turnout in FL-26 and Powell winning helps Biden.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1295697119005859841

Club for Growth = (R) poll?

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ramsberry1/status/1295709752773746688

[wbrocks67]

Can we please get polls that AREN'T internals?

I don't think public pollsters are really gonna do any congressional polls this cycle. Or at least not until we get closer

[wbrocks67]

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

[wbrocks67]

New YouGov poll steady at Dem +11 in GCB

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c6n58wb53l/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

[wbrocks67]

IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D)

Hale 50%
Spartz 44%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

Spartz overperforms Trump by 7 points.

Ugh, that overperformance is worrying. Though Spartz is just 2% ahead of Trump, Hale is 5% under Biden. I'm not sure if the presidential numbers are real or an overestimate, likely the latter but wild swings aren't impossible.

Two polls with a Hale lead of 5 and the CW is "Hale must be losing"?

[wbrocks67]

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago

Emerson didn’t poll the House race.

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

...Yes? Because they didn’t poll any of those races, maybe? (they’ve done polls for the Rosendale campaign/exclusively for Rosendale's races in the past as well)

girl... just no

[wbrocks67]

IN-05
Global Strategy Group (D)

Hale 47%
Spartz 40%
Tucker 4%
Undecided 9%

So 3/4 internals are showing Hale with at least 5+ lead. DIdn't the Spartz internal have her up like 7?

[wbrocks67]

The Civiqs GCB tracker is back up to D+10

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[wbrocks67]

GA-06 GQR (D): McBath (D-inc) 50%, Handel (R) 47%

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

Honestly for a D internal this is kind of disappointing. I'm not expecting a McBath blowout but I would assume, even without a D internal, she should be up at least 3/4 here, considering incumbency, she's been well-received, well-funded, and Handel seems pretty unpopular.

[wbrocks67]

USC/Dornsife has it at D+8 (51.5-43.5), pretty much in line with the average that it's been at since 2018

https://election.usc.edu/

[wbrocks67]

USC/dornsife has GCB at D+10

https://election.usc.edu/

[wbrocks67]

I'll repost what I said in the other topic:

That's not a great result on the generic ballot. Democrats won by 10% in 2018, although Republicans didn't run a candidate in Mike Doyle's Pittsburgh district. I suppose that could've narrowed it to 8-9% if they fielded a candidate. Democrats almost certainly need to be doing better than +7% in PA on the generic ballot if there's any chance to win PA-01 or PA-10.

Depends. Trump could be hurting the ballot a bit in PA-07 or PA-08 while helping it in PA-01. There's also some more rural districts that may more R this year, which could also be offset with suburbs getting even bluer than 2018. It's pretty fluid, so kind of hard to really point one way or the other.

[wbrocks67]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I'm gonna get specific here but I don't think lawn signs are really a good barometer right now. I haven't even gotten my sticker from the campaign yet so i doubt many people who ordered lawn signs have gotten them either...

[wbrocks67]

Ds are raising boatloads of cash. I just hope they spend it correctly.

[wbrocks67]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

This is what makes me believe the poll is junk. There's no way Republicans are winning those seats by 10%.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov: GCB D+13

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7kvpozbozh/econTabReport.pdf