2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

[VAR]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

TX-07 and TX-22.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New DCCC poll has Goroff (D) leading Zeldin (R-inc.) in NY-01.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1296441349840003076?s=21

[ajc0918]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

[politicallefty]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

[VAR]

PA-01 (DFM Research)

Fitzpatrick (R, inc.) 47%
Finello (D) 35%

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-1_Survey_2020_Rail.pdf

N U T

[Mr.Phips]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Anyway, I think Dems would do well to pick up 10 seats. We are just much more polarized than we were in 2008.

[Gracile]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

Update: Here is the full list of districts targeted in this buy-

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1296525753325060097

[politicallefty]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority. 

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1296523710506110981

[VAR]

Saint Anselm College

NH-01 R Primary

Mowers 23%
Mayberry 12%
Other 8%
Undecided 57%

NH-02 R Primary

Negron 37%
Blankenbeker 15%
Other 4%
Undecided 44%

https://www.wmur.com/article/poll-trump-still-under-water-trailing-biden-in-nh-while-sununu-job-approval-strong/33659633

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1296523710506110981

I'm going to go ahead and be bold with this one: Goldstein pulls this out.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1296523710506110981

I'm going to go ahead and be bold with this one: Goldstein pulls this out.

Lynch had $1.6m cash on hand after March (I didn't find more recent numbers in a short search).

The same unions who endorsed and are working for JKIII will be supporting Lynch in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago

Emerson didn’t poll the House race.

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

...Yes? Because they didn’t poll any of those races, maybe? (they’ve done polls for the Rosendale campaign/exclusively for Rosendale's races in the past as well)

[wbrocks67]

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago

Emerson didn’t poll the House race.

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

...Yes? Because they didn’t poll any of those races, maybe? (they’ve done polls for the Rosendale campaign/exclusively for Rosendale's races in the past as well)

girl... just no

[Mr.Phips]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority. 

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

It does if the DCCC takes the NRSC approach to incumbent protection, but having lots of incumbency bonuses should be a net benefit for the caucus.

A larger majority also makes for faster/more ambitious lawmaking and if you're of the opinion that good governance can help an incumbent party, that's worth considering.

[Pollster]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

It does if the DCCC takes the NRSC approach to incumbent protection, but having lots of incumbency bonuses should be a net benefit for the caucus.

A larger majority also makes for faster/more ambitious lawmaking and if you're of the opinion that good governance can help an incumbent party, that's worth considering.

A 260 majority could also probably easily pass voting protections and redistricting reforms, which obviously won't stop a wave but eliminates many barriers Dems would face in 2022.

[MT Treasurer]

girl... just no

Yes, actually. They also did this in 2018 (for Rosendale during his Senate campaign, both for the primary and the GE) and during this year's R primary campaign for MT-AL (again for Rosendale) and have zero incentive to poll MT-PRES and MT-SEN in a poll asked for by the Rosendale campaign to determine the current state of the House race, so your theory that they actually polled all the other races and just didn’t want to release those numbers is very dubious. Besides, while Rosendale +6 is likely a little too R-friendly for this race and Williams has a slightly better shot than she did in 2018, there’s no reason to believe that this is better than a Rosendale +3-4 affair for Democrats right now.

[VAR]

CA-08
Global Strategy Group (D)

Obernolte 48%
Bubser 38%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ilPY3NwXJsmie1HYnGLzDfo25cxGZgFU/view

[Pericles]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

It does if the DCCC takes the NRSC approach to incumbent protection, but having lots of incumbency bonuses should be a net benefit for the caucus.

A larger majority also makes for faster/more ambitious lawmaking and if you're of the opinion that good governance can help an incumbent party, that's worth considering.

It's easier to win a seat that you already hold, especially with the sophomore effect. Plus having more Democratic Representatives might make Republicans more cautious with their gerrymanders, even if redistricting reforms aren't passed. I'd say if Democrats gain 20 seats they'll get lucky with some of those seats and manage to hold about 5 in 2022. While otherwise none if those 20 seats would vote Democratic in 2022.

[VAR]

IN-05
Global Strategy Group (D)

Hale 47%
Spartz 40%
Tucker 4%
Undecided 9%

[wbrocks67]

IN-05
Global Strategy Group (D)

Hale 47%
Spartz 40%
Tucker 4%
Undecided 9%

So 3/4 internals are showing Hale with at least 5+ lead. DIdn't the Spartz internal have her up like 7?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It appears to have been missed here, but Democratic candidate David Cavell withdrew 10 days ago in MA-04 and endorsed Mermell. However, he remains on the ballot.

[Gracile]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.