2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

The point about mayoral elections isn’t the best point as jacksonville the city is larger then a congressional district and includes a lot of the white suburbs and wealthy beaches. 

What I am trying to say is if you are nesting a seat it in the county, RPV analysts would naturally turn to the mayoral contests as examples of local exogenous elections in situations without the best electoral fundamentals. One therefore would run algorithms using the full slate of precincts - to determine to what degree African Americans and other minorities favor the Democrats. Then an analyst would examine the selection of precincts included in the seat - not the white beach areas naturally excluded - and determine whether under RPV the exogenous African American candidate reliably wins the seat.

What we are more or less dealing with here is the inverse of the MS/AL situation where you can draw majority AA seats that vote GOP. Those wouldn't be performing by a longshot, which is why you have to aim for a higher BVAP. Jacksonville is trying to be like a northern city access seat, where the preferred candidate of minorities is guaranteed to win so one can lower the minority VAP to a level where it controls the primary, but any Jacksonville seat presently isn't guaranteed to to go Dem because of the lack of allies. The situation we are describing does exist on the State Senate maps, but these have 12 more seats and a lower necessary population, so the coalition seat isn't lacking in allies.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1493737048397647876?s=20&t=hsBRnhQp4E5z...

Once again, follow the listen to the actual Tallahassee insider when it comes to inside bickering.

[Oryxslayer]

House Committee is currently debating the congressional plan. Dems are asking pointed questions about whey their analysis found Fl-10 to be unprotected. DeSantis sent the guy who created Poslby-Popper to show up are argue for him and try to provide some authority, but the committee Republicans are raking him over the coals.

[Oryxslayer]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

[Oryxslayer]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

What do you think about NC 01 and GA 02? They look like they could possibly flip

I don't see GA02 as vulnerable really. Still like Biden +12 in an inelastic region with a relatively strong urban D base. Biden performed fairly similar to 2012 Obama overall.

Yeah. That said, I would have made them safer so that whatever population changes occur next decade do not disrupt their performance. GA-02: remove Lee and some other majority White Counties/city precincts and add in Crisp, Twiggs, more of Warner Robins, and a bit more diverse urban precincts. In essence, get the set over 50% BVAP measured by African Americans alone. NC-01: Cut more counties so that Goldsboro and Kinston are in the seat and some of the very White areas are removed. Make these changes and you can make it so that the Black population is larger than the White population when measured by Black+mixed and Black alone - without using Raleigh-Durham.

[Oryxslayer]

Florida Supreme Court approves the twin legislative maps, as per their duty. Court rejected GOP lawmaker desires to overturn some of the old precedent from the previous court.

[Oryxslayer]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.

This tweet was read on the floor during the debate, apparently shocking some of the house according to MCI who is watching from somewhere in the building. While this was obvious to us, it may adjust the internal calculus of the chamber: either prepare for the courts or get the veto-override votes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1499779776755605504?s=20&t=fHp3sHWk3_WA...

This hasn't been internalized by everyone in this process until now methinks.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1499787894659059714?s=20&t=fHp3sHWk3_WA...

The House has officially been played and many discovered it today. DeSantis said more compact, they compacted, and then gave them the middle finger cause he wants attention.

That's 7 GOP votes against: Reps. Ingoglia (former Republican Party of Florida chairman), Beltran, Byrd, Drake, Fischer, Gregory & Sabatini. Sabatini obviously cause he didn't get his central FL seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate immediately added the House map to the schedule and is discussing it now.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1508811194538336256

Technically nothing is that suspicious of it taking this long, many bills are still being sent. they use it for press conferences.

And DeSantis just announced the inevitable veto.

[Oryxslayer]

FL-05, or something similar to the previous African American north Florida access seat, may be returning very soon. State court case is going to trial soon, but the plaintiffs and the state defendants  have agreed to a pretrial semi-settlement.

The plaintiffs drop their challenges to districts in the Tampa and Orlando area to narrow in on the north. The state agrees to: a expedited schedule and potential remapping when the session restarts in January,  agrees that if the court accepts the plaintiffs arguments on the state's own non-retrogression laws (very likely in light of this) the remedial district will be Tallahassee to Duval, and the state defendants publicly state for the legal record that “none of the enacted districts in North Florida are districts in which Black voters have the ability to elect their preferred candidates.” Parties agree to limit potential remapping solely to North Florida and only districts that would be affected by recreating the previous access seat.


Al Lawson has publicly stated he intends to return.  

In a roundabout way, this is more fallout from Milligan. DeSantis justified his map on restoring compactness, but mainly on the potential for a Supreme Court ruling that would vindicate him in regards to Gingles and gerrymandering. Legally he argues that the 2010 equity protections amendments to the constitution violate the US Constitution, but the Supreme Court didn't rule the VRA against the constitution, and said amendments copy the VRA for the state. With that not happening, he has little defense in regards to the former 5th specifically.  So the plaintiffs see a chance to get that district done now, and not have it remain in limbo as their other claims lead to the case remaining in and working its way up through the state system till probably the 2026 elections at the earliest.  

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1690459097756209152?t=Jk5CQ9Iahosm5dIzq6TbaQ&...

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1690470734890471424?t=47z1xm6JQq50B6GxTXH7xA&...

[Oryxslayer]

Now that the crackpot theorycrafting by DeSantis is dead via Allen v. Milligan not going his way, the defendants realize the North Florida districts (not having any black opportunity district) are indefensible due to the retrogression (or "diminishment") wording in the Fair Districts amendment.  

So now the FLGOP wants to declare the entire retrogression section of the Fair Districts amendment (along with any racial representation rules) unconstitutional, which is idiocy.

Yeah they would need a truly activist hack judge to do that, especially since people voted it into the constitution by over 60% in 2010 of all years. Which is why I suspect this agreement is everything but an out of court settlement when its comes to the 5th. This is of course because the state Defendant is running for President and can't appear to be settling to liberals benefit. he instead needs to appear ordered by a court for trying so he can cliam "to have his hands tied by activist hack judges."

[Oryxslayer]

I'm actually a little confused about what's going on here. Does any settlement on restoring the old FL-05 obviate other challenges to the map? The way FL-13 and FL-14 are drawn is one of the more unquestionably hackish aspects of the map. On the other hand, the courts in Florida are pretty bad now, aren't they?

Well there is a separate suit in federal court, this is the state challenges. So there's always that.


This agreement explicitly has the plaintiffs drop challenges to Tampa and Orlando, yes. The bead that I get, especially since the plaintiffs are openly happy with this outcome, is that FL-05 is is all but an auto-win at this point since it concerns the minority access and retrogression sections. Whereas the other areas focus on the gerrymandering and COI sections, and that's the type of thing that will be litigated all the way to the State Supreme Court. So the plaintiffs preferred approach is seemingly get one district resolved now for 2024, then go again for the districts that would tie everything up for a longer period, rather then have FL-05 remain tied and delayed through the longer litigation.

[Oryxslayer]

MCI Maps, the Florida politics and data jockey, has a good Substack on the topic and agreement and the situation concerning the state case. One thing that I forgot to mention in the previous post but should have is the issue of discovery. Compared to the case last decade, the court was much more favorable to legislative privilege and retention of documents. This meant the plaintiffs have less official legal evidence to prove the gerrymandering claim, whereas the racial one just needs RPV and functionality evidence like under Section 2 VRA, albeit  more lenient.  Trying again in a more favorable lower venue in regards to Tampa and Orlando might additionally lead to better discovery rulings even if that case would still eventually head up to the same Conservative-controlled high courts.

[Oryxslayer]

FL-05 trial is Thursday.

[Oryxslayer]

Happy court day for all who celebrate.  Here's a live thread:

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694696210219552884?t=cl8Lbu0ybcQfR04zIof-CQ...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694699296384262620?t=UJQu3XFz0ShBTyqGGOrRHg...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694700020157550655?t=ULQ4kLATb0TFusf56puPUA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694702862821969966?t=Otaek28ZReCYxAZzYU3NHA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694704041048281098?t=1bpSPeQ2vuSgcbR29vtUEA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694704765194907882?t=GzEyzA4kTvs5WWJl8pw09g...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694705476527964368?t=ZNP0YooaGTZLLNPg2Efsrg...

Spicy

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1694708347982008389?t=Xrg89r3SAbHk1jChM4wbs...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694711079656653009?t=eHi2zi1QX6BJcbZkh38i0A...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694718461656871345?t=9RvbXDlmWS_JMxDGx7LbbQ...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694725303934062622?t=LUuz-mltD-dWTTgX4f58Yg...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694749479855878590?t=iZXYL8oLmozglosxfUdAzw...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694750410978783619?t=wgXZwIQ7LBsjEJsO8nQNAA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694750975955726712?t=HYmb1gKgyMruLiCL2JJG4g...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694752043733250161?t=9-1BDaPuVjlAFTDYlWlE3A...

I personally like this closing rebuttal by the plaintiffs,  cause it strikes at the heart of the state's attempt to have their cake and also eat it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694755365940756529?t=9Ld8JJzMJ0E7m05vGuHVGw...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694756336087543827?t=EVVNRIKFIv2Kp6XKqYy2_Q...

Court ruling and order could emerge very quickly, partially cause of the pretrial agreement. Obviously the state could appeal to the Florida Supreme Court. However, since most of the arguments presented today by the defense are shaky or involve hypotheticals, and how the pretrial semi-settlement seemed designed to put the defendants in this position, I would not be surprised if this is the final nail for FL05 as it is today.

[Oryxslayer]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee

It wouldn't be a black-opportunity district in accordance with the VRA. I think the old district used to stretch from Jacksonville to Orlando (and included part of Gainesville). That was a Republican gerrymander without restriction from the Florida Constitution though. I think the Democratic Congresswoman who represented that district actually tried to challenge the redistricting amendment in federal court.

This is correct.  The incumbent of that era knew she owed he position to it's incomprehensible shape that crossed so many communities,  preventing a primary challenger.



The issue at stake here is not the national VRA but the state's equivalent. Though in their attempt to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, the State tried to make the case that following the VRA was not a compelling state interest.  It's all but impossible to draw a 50% seat in North Florida going east-west. Obviously this isn't needed, between other minority groups and more crossover whites than in the deep south. The initial tentacle FL05 to Orlando though did hit said benchmarks,  which is why FL05 still mattered for the both VRA equivalents.  It was proven and legal that you could have a 50% district,  then they redrew it, but even though the seat dropped below 50% it's still performing and still an access seat. That's last decade.

This decade the GOP tried to axe FL05 as an access seat, and ran afoul of the no diminishment parts of the law. So they must make the argument that it was no longer functioning as an access seat. This either requires the district being drawn more and more uncompact and running afoul of Gingles (because the AA pop is decreasing so things must get more creative), or argue the district has stopped performing.  Obviously both don't really apply here, but that didn't stop the state lawyers from throwing them out there.

 This is why the judge (Scott appointment) kept bringing up if the state wants him to overrule the Supreme Court from last decade - something he seemingly doesn't believe he has the power to do - cause that body deemed east-west FL05 compact in regards to Gingles. And the proposed district wouldn't be significantly changing. The second point is obviously important but doesn't really apply given proven performance, and how Florida's no diminishment law protects state districts with less minority VAP than FL05 because of their proven results.  The Duval-only FL05 for example would drop BVAP to around 40% but the results would still point towards accessibility.  The Gainesville option, as alluded to here, would probably have too many non-AA democrats for them to control the primary,  but we really don't know.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1698050556063785263?t=PpDVuKZ_z-4qU8BoR3Ihkg...


In and out. They of course have the right of appeal to the state Supreme Court,  but I'm not yet convinced they'll take the case in such a reduced and indefensible position,  even with all GOP appointments.  Notice of appeals have to be filed by Monday.

[Oryxslayer]

I always think that if Adam Putnam had won that primary in 2022 over DeSantis, he likely would have just signed the legislature’s map that kept FL-05, FL-07, and FL-13 (kept St Pete with lower Pinellas) as they were from 2016-2020 and we never would have gotten to this point.

Democrats (myself included) were thrilled that a clown like DeSantis won the primary and thought that even with Gillum we couldnt possibly lose to him.  In retrospect, we should have rooted for Putnam to win that primary.  

I'm right here with you. Though I had a bad feeling about Democrats nominating Gillum in turn.

Regardless, at least we can take some solace in DeSuckass imploding on the national stage.

Almost all FL dem activists/strategists I have talked with know Graham wouldn't have lost.  It was seemingly set up for her and then everything fell apart, as usual starting with something from the FLDP.