COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just now I tuned into a Trump press conference for the first and last time.  Some dipsh**t reporter was asking him if he had any plans to pardon the Tiger King.

13,000 Americans dead so far.

At this rate Joe Exotic will be a legitimate presidential candidate and a front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2024.

[Del Tachi]

The American Academy of Family Physicians estimates that as many as 58k family physicians might be out of business or forced into retirement as a result of COVID-19 closures.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

Bad and or sick guy.

You guys are being just as bad as Trump championing the drug. A doctor should be able to prescribe an FDA approved drug to their patient!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

Bad and or sick guy.

You guys are being just as bad as Trump championing the drug. A doctor should be able to prescribe an FDA approved drug to their patient!

Yeah the guy who has money in a drug that has been proven to have deadly side effects unless its taken for its intended purposes for Malaria and Lupus is sure doing the right thing

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Too bad you'll never see an article like this in a "mainstream" paper. This is the Socialist Alternative response to that Imperial College report that demanded lockdowns...

https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/04/07/the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study-a-socialist-response

[It’s so Joever]

Too bad you'll never see an article like this in a "mainstream" paper. This is the Socialist Alternative response to that Imperial College report that demanded lockdowns...

https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/04/07/the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study-a-socialist-response

Oh for gods sake, we go through this argument every week.
That would have been a great strategy back in February, just like banning flights to and from Europe would have been effective in February. We now have 300,000+ confirmed Covid-19 cases with likely millions of unreported ones (based on death rates) and that doesn’t even take into account the 7.10 day incubation period. You know, many “alarmists” were calling for your approach back in February, when it actually would have done something. There is so much spread now, it is practically impossible to trace every case and contact.

No one is arguing the effectiveness of isolating contacts and mass testing as a way to prevent a major pandemic from going out of control. Well guess what, the pandemic has been out of control for weeks, and you know it. More importantly, we don’t have the testing capacity. Do you really think healthcare workers are sitting on 1,000,000 tests and not doing anything? Sure, let’s increase testing capacity, but let’s realize we won’t be South Korea tomorrow and honestly may never be due to the vastly different circumstances.


As for the effectiveness of lockdowns?
News Flash, Italy and Spain didn’t see new case numbers per day drop by doing nothing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Too bad you'll never see an article like this in a "mainstream" paper. This is the Socialist Alternative response to that Imperial College report that demanded lockdowns...

https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/04/07/the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study-a-socialist-response

Oh for gods sake, we go through this argument every week.
That would have been a great strategy back in February, just like banning flights to and from Europe would have been effective in February. We now have 300,000+ confirmed Covid-19 cases with likely millions of unreported ones (based on death rates) and that doesn’t even take into account the 7.10 day incubation period. You know, many “alarmists” were calling for your approach back in February, when it actually would have done something. There is so much spread now, it is practically impossible to trace every case and contact.

No one is arguing the effectiveness of isolating contacts and mass testing as a way to prevent a major pandemic from going out of control. Well guess what, the pandemic has been out of control for weeks, and you know it. More importantly, we don’t have the testing capacity. Do you really think healthcare workers are sitting on 1,000,000 tests and not doing anything? Sure, let’s increase testing capacity, but let’s realize we won’t be South Korea tomorrow and honestly may never be due to the vastly different circumstances.


As for the effectiveness of lockdowns?
News Flash, Italy and Spain didn’t see new case numbers per day drop by doing nothing.

It would have been much better if implemented in February.  But we’d be still be able to target quarantines much more effectively if everyone could get tested today.

But two month later, we’ve still never gotten any straight answer from the government about testing capacity.  Trump has been lying and evading this question every single day.  And for some reason we let him get away with it.

[It’s so Joever]

Too bad you'll never see an article like this in a "mainstream" paper. This is the Socialist Alternative response to that Imperial College report that demanded lockdowns...

https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/04/07/the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study-a-socialist-response

Oh for gods sake, we go through this argument every week.
That would have been a great strategy back in February, just like banning flights to and from Europe would have been effective in February. We now have 300,000+ confirmed Covid-19 cases with likely millions of unreported ones (based on death rates) and that doesn’t even take into account the 7.10 day incubation period. You know, many “alarmists” were calling for your approach back in February, when it actually would have done something. There is so much spread now, it is practically impossible to trace every case and contact.

No one is arguing the effectiveness of isolating contacts and mass testing as a way to prevent a major pandemic from going out of control. Well guess what, the pandemic has been out of control for weeks, and you know it. More importantly, we don’t have the testing capacity. Do you really think healthcare workers are sitting on 1,000,000 tests and not doing anything? Sure, let’s increase testing capacity, but let’s realize we won’t be South Korea tomorrow and honestly may never be due to the vastly different circumstances.


As for the effectiveness of lockdowns?
News Flash, Italy and Spain didn’t see new case numbers per day drop by doing nothing.

It would have been much better if implemented in February.  But we’d be still be able to target quarantines much more effectively if everyone could get tested today.

But two month later, we’ve still never gotten any straight answer from the government about testing capacity.  Trump has been lying and evading this question every single day.  And for some reason we let him get away with it.

Oh absolutely, we need to ramp up production of testing kits, PPE, swabs, etc, and we need to do it ASAP. Nobody benefits from the testing shortages right now (except for maybe coffin salesmen) and I have never been against increasing testing capacity. That doesn’t mean testing alone will save us at this point in time.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

Bad and or sick guy.

You guys are being just as bad as Trump championing the drug. A doctor should be able to prescribe an FDA approved drug to their patient!

Yeah the guy who has money in a drug that has been proven to have deadly side effects unless its taken for its intended purposes for Malaria and Lupus is sure doing the right thing

It does have some serious side effects but they are rare and develop with time. The course most doctors are using is for 5 days. Combining it with Azithromycin could cause arrythmias but that is why patients need to have an ECG before starting the therapy.

I have mentioned at least a couple times on this thread that Plaquenil will not have increased sales. That is the drug product Trump might make money on, not the generic product that will be dispensed 99% of the time. And since it's a one time course and the drug is cheap, there really isn't much money to be made. That is one of the reasons why drug companies don't spend more time trying to discover new antibiotics and antivirals. Much more lucrative to create a new drug for diabetes that people will have to pay for monthly for the rest of their lives.

Also when did I say Trump was doing the right thing? He needs to stop recommending drugs and let the doctors do their job. You guys should also not question doctors who are prescribing FDA approved drugs to their patients after properly evaluating them. The doctor at the nursing home in question has every right to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to his patients. Whether it will work or not is the question we do not have an answer to yet.

[Sbane]

Also just in general, drug therapies are not political. There are no Republican drugs or Democratic drugs. You people, and the president, need to get a grip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also just in general, drug therapies are not political. There are no Republican drugs or Democratic drugs. You people, and the president, need to get a grip.

I agree, although one might make a case for Fox News being a Republican drug.

[jimrtex]

Trump has direct money interests in promoting Hydroxychloroquine.   Surprising no one.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-stake-company-hydroxychloroquine_n_5e8c41d7c5b6e1d10a696280

President Donald Trump reportedly owns a stake in a company that produces hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug he has repeatedly touted as a coronavirus treatment even though his experts say there’s no strong evidence it works.

Trump “has a small personal financial interest” in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine, The New York Times reported Monday.

Can anyone discern how supposedly small this small personal financial interest is? I can't read the Times article due to the pay wall. The link Huntington Post article says that the three Trump family trusts each have Holdings in a mutual fund, the largest investor in which is Sanofi. That leaves a lot of interpretation.

Trump’s personal stake in the malaria-drug maker Sanofi could be as small as $99

The article goes on to note that in Sanofi's latest financial statements they broke out revenue for 33 other drugs, but Plaquenil was so tiny they didn't bother.

[jimrtex]

Cuomo: Use of antimalarial drug in New York hospitals 'anecdotally' positive

Bad and or sick guy.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/8 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8 (Today):

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

[It’s so Joever]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/8 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5:

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8 (Today):

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

Huh?
Worldometers shows the US case rise as 31.9k.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/8 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5:

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8 (Today):

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

Huh?
Worldometers shows the US case rise as 31.9k.

I'm tracking the worldometer independently. I take their numbers at the same time every day and run them myself. Sometimes, states update late or every other day and those throw off their spreadsheet. The 4/7 number was the total that the worldometer was showing at the same time as the 4/8 number today.

[T'Chenka]

Cuomo: Use of antimalarial drug in New York hospitals 'anecdotally' positive

Bad and or sick guy.

Hospitals are different than nursing homes where MAGA toads are ignoring power of attorney to use the elderly as guinea pigs.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears

Some local officials are disappointed the federal government will end funding for coronavirus testing sites this Friday. In a few places those sites will close as a result. This as criticism continues that not enough testing is available.

In the Philadelphia suburbs, Montgomery County has a drive-through site that has tested 250 people a day since March 21.

"It has been a very successful site. We are hoping by the time it closes Friday afternoon that we will have tested a little over 5,000 individuals," says Dr. Valerie Arkoosh, who chairs the commission in the county of more than 825,000 people.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest data shows Turkey and Brazil entering a family of large populations suffering from the Corona-virus pandemic according to data from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just going through some of the data issues with each country and what it means for interpretation of the graphs you look at. Each country has it's own technique and although comparing countries is difficult, it can be done loosely if you realise what the variability is within each dataset.

UK

UK has a very high mortality rate based on current numbers. A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.0% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 7,097/33,718)

Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide, that would mean that the UK could

• either have 0.9 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

UK has reported less recoveries than deaths. In fact, their overall reporting is very unreliable for interpretation.

France

Data coming in is lumpy in terms of both recoveries and new cases.

A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 18.4% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 10,869/59,105)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France will:

• either have 1.4 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Once recoveries are calculated properly over the next week, it should show the peak of 'Active Cases' has been reached in the next couple of days.

France has had some considerable step changes in their reporting regime for all data including cases, deaths and recoveries.

Germany

Germany has some good mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 3.8% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 2,349/61,247)

Divide this by the rate of asymptomatic cases in countries like China and Australia, and you get around 0.7-0.8% mortality which matches the global average.

Germany has recently caught up on lagging recovery numbers with 18,000 recoveries reported in the last two days. 3 days ago, I was missing 22,000 recoveries from Germany in the 'Active Case' curve, so this is a positive step in reporting.

Germany has a good dataset for interpretation.

Spain

Spain has a very clean dataset in terms of consistent daily reporting.

The mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 19.7% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,792/74,974)

Again using similar statistics from the UK and France, Spain will:

• either have 1.85 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

My modeling has a deficit of 32,000 recoveries which I have had to add these in to make sense of the Spanish data.

Italy

Italy has had the most media attention as the first country in Europe to have an outbreak, so they were the least prepared.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.3% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 17,669/83,049)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France and Spain, Italy will:

• either have 2.21 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Based on the data presented, I have included 62,500 recoveries on top of those reported from Italy.

USA

USA has massive numbers to look at.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 6.45% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,736/228,404)

Divide that by 5 for asymptomatic cases that never get tested, then we have around 1.3% mortality rate closer to that of Germany, China and Australia.

Now, if 0.8% is the true final rate, that means the US has 350,000 total cases at present.

Overall, this is looking good in terms of testing and reporting, and allows better predictive capacity for future decisions.

When President Trump and Dr Birx refer to testing anomalies in other countries and under-reporting, they are referring to the numbers above.

[T'Chenka]

Popular and much-referenced IHME model for USA coronavirus pandemic has revised their projected numbers to show only 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths (in this first wave of the pandemic) as opposed to previous numbers of 80,000, 90,000 and even earlier - as mentioned by Birx and Fauci - 100,000 to 200,000.  There is much death to come sadly, but this is great news. We will a second wave and probably a third before this is all over with.

References
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Popular and much-referenced IHME model for USA coronavirus pandemic has revised their projected numbers to show only 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths (in this first wave of the pandemic) as opposed to previous numbers of 80,000, 90,000 and even earlier - as mentioned by Birx and Fauci - 100,000 to 200,000.  There is much death to come sadly, but this is great news. We will a second wave and probably a third before this is all over with.

References
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't it also suggesting the peak is now earlier too?

[T'Chenka]

Popular and much-referenced IHME model for USA coronavirus pandemic has revised their projected numbers to show only 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths (in this first wave of the pandemic) as opposed to previous numbers of 80,000, 90,000 and even earlier - as mentioned by Birx and Fauci - 100,000 to 200,000.  There is much death to come sadly, but this is great news. We will a second wave and probably a third before this is all over with.

References
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't it also suggesting the peak is now earlier too?

That's correct, they adjusted it by a few days.

[emailking]

4/8 (Today):

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

Looks like new records today for both cases and deaths.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Popular and much-referenced IHME model for USA coronavirus pandemic has revised their projected numbers to show only 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths (in this first wave of the pandemic) as opposed to previous numbers of 80,000, 90,000 and even earlier - as mentioned by Birx and Fauci - 100,000 to 200,000.  There is much death to come sadly, but this is great news. We will a second wave and probably a third before this is all over with.

References
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't it also suggesting the peak is now earlier too?

That's correct, they adjusted it by a few days.

They don't have peaks for cases hmm that's surprising

[T'Chenka]

Popular and much-referenced IHME model for USA coronavirus pandemic has revised their projected numbers to show only 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths (in this first wave of the pandemic) as opposed to previous numbers of 80,000, 90,000 and even earlier - as mentioned by Birx and Fauci - 100,000 to 200,000.  There is much death to come sadly, but this is great news. We will a second wave and probably a third before this is all over with.

References
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't it also suggesting the peak is now earlier too?

That's correct, they adjusted it by a few days.

They don't have peaks for cases hmm that's surprising

"Recorded / reported cases" isn't aways an accurate number when testimg isn't done widely. Deaths are a more tangible measure.