COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[brucejoel99]

South Dakota state representative dies from coronavirus, first sitting U.S. lawmaker to die after testing positive for COVID-19

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-south-dakota-state-representative-bob-glanzer-dead-20200404-43tkdggt3zakfj26i7zoczghnu-story.html

Interesting that this happened in SD, given how few cases & deaths they've reported. Has it really not hit the Dakotas at all or are they just not testing?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I know you will disagree, but I'm really thankful we have a president like Trump during this because he will be way more eager to reopen society than the average president would be.

Trump and most of the governors (regardless of party) have almost all been terrible during this crisis.

I don't disagree with that; I will say that it's easy for us to criticize, but a lot harder to make decisions during a crisis.  I disagree with how far we have gone (over 40 governors of both parties have issued arguably unconstitutional lockdowns) and think we could have explored alternative strategies, but this is not an easy time for any of our leaders.

The consensus at this point is that the lockdowns need to end.

Two. Months. That is what they told us is what they need to 'flatten' the curve. Most people have put their faith in that number. If they still do not have it under control, we're done.

Many people are going to get it and die whether we continue into the summer or not. For the summer and beyond, it is up to each individual to assess their own tolerance for mortality risk. From a public policy perspective, the only thing we would be hoping to control is second order deaths from non-COVID causes (availability of healthcare services) and a handful from ventilator supply. And in China, even being put on a ventilator was already a death sentence. Even assuming America is even moderately more successful, I don't think this is going to be a driving factor on the magnitude of deaths.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Two. Months.

Two months is completely unacceptable for this type of lockdown.

[brucejoel99]

Two. Months.

Two months is completely unacceptable for this type of lockdown.

Said no sane person ever.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

[Sbane]

lol.  The TrumpFlu finally exposes toxic masculinity. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/domestic-violence-coronavirus-calls-cases-increase-invs/index.html

This comment is in poor taste

But I'm sure calling it "chinese virus" is totally cool with you. Trump didn't take this seriously and now we may be entering a depression. Deal with it.

Oh please. If a person's response to an article describing a spike in domestic violence is "lol," then that person is a piece of sh**t.

Not defending that at all.

This is the "trumpflu" though. If he had given a sh**t and got serious about testing when it actually mattered, we wouldn't be in this mess. We wouldn't have to choose between American lives or the economy.

[Sbane]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

Cool! Another person I need to block!

[brucejoel99]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

Can you say "reckless endangerment," kids?

[We Live in Black and White]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

Then have fun in Hell, I guess.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m pretty worried that we aren’t going to be willing to end lockdowns until the data suggests almost zero new deaths on a daily basis.  

The medical professionals keep reminding us that there is a 2-3 week lag in the data.  And we need to keep that in mind not just in interpreting the data at the start of the lockdown, but also near the end.  

If we get to a point where the trends suggests we will reach an acceptable number of new cases/deaths in 2-3 weeks, we need to end the lockdowns right then and not 2-3 weeks later.

[YPestis25]

This thread used to be nice.

[We Live in Black and White]

This thread used to be nice.

It did?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pretty sick of the McCarthyism against anyone who dares to oppose lockdowns.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Former friend of mine just blocked me and a couple other people when she said the virus is a lie and it's "not that serious" when we called her out on it I ing hate people

[emailking]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

The more cases that have piled up, the harder it is to get a percentage increase. Yeah I guess this is better than daily percentage increases. But the number of cases is still accelerating. We're not peaking.

[brucejoel99]

Pretty sick of the McCarthyism against anyone who dares to oppose lockdowns.

Pretty sick of people not giving a f**k about public health.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them, just don't get pissed when people turn on you and are forced to be under stay at home orders longer Bandit

[Sbane]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

Cool! Another person I need to block!

Healthcare workers all over the world are dropping like flies and you can't stay inside for two months? That is just too much to ask?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

The more cases that have piled up, the harder it is to get a percentage increase. Yeah I guess this is better than daily percentage increases. But the number of cases is still accelerating. We're not peaking.

That is actually true.

On an exponential growth curve like the USA is experiencing in graphic clarity, every day will actually see a decrease in percentage of new cases whilst seeing an acceleration in the number of actual new cases.

Why?

Dividing the new cases into a larger and larger base of existing infections makes no sense to get a percentage. It will just fall slowly like every exponential curve would. It's a symptom of the maths, not a reflection of the reality of what is actually happening.

It is a bit like this:

Growth of new cases in the USA was from Louisiana and Michigan.

But dividing that by the number of existing cases in New York is meaningless.

Hence percentage increases are doubly deceiving when analysing exponential growth data.

The only thing you can conclude is that those countries with the highest percentage increase in New Cases are most like in week 1 of the growth curve.

[brucejoel99]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Fair, but people being dumbasses & getting it isn't the problem. It's their getting it & then spreading it to people who obviously don't want to get this but have no choice but to be out & about for whatever reason (e.g. essential employment, shopping for essential needs, emergency medical appointments, homelessness, etc). It's a responsibility for those of us who can afford to stay at home to do so, so that those who can't are still somewhat protected.

[Sbane]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Except people like my fiancee will have to die for their stupidity. And these are going to be the same morons who will just walk into a hospital ER waiting room with no mask on coughing on everybody in sight.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Re: testing.


I've said it many times, but US has more and better targeted (better Doctors?) testing that most Western Countries. If you don't believe me, listen to Nate Silver >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246454777736843269


"Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are."

The problem is we needed to be like South Korea to avoid the 2nd Great Depression. We failed and the cat is out the bag. We are screwed no matter we do. We either stay shut down for another couple months and go into a depression or we open up the country and end up having to shut it down again or see people dying in hospital hallways and parking lots.

We won't go into a Great Depression. The thing that has to be remembered is that the Great Depression itself was not just the natural contraction of the economy, but the complete unwinding of the financial sector/system peeling itself apart like a banana over the course of three years time, while the Government sat on its hands and the Fed actively made the liquidity problems worse.

The banks are well capitalized, the Fed has pumped trillions of liquidity into various markets, and the Gov't just passed a 2 Trillion stimulus with another on the table if necessary.

People love to throw out numbers as "worst since the Great Depression" and use any manner of sensational headlines. It could be bad, very bad indeed, but the confluence of events that caused the Great Depression is not happening here.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Except people like my fiancee will have to die for their stupidity. And these are going to be the same morons who will just walk into a hospital ER waiting room with no mask on coughing on everybody in sight.

I was more being sarcastic

[Sbane]

Re: testing.


I've said it many times, but US has more and better targeted (better Doctors?) testing that most Western Countries. If you don't believe me, listen to Nate Silver >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246454777736843269


"Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are."

The problem is we needed to be like South Korea to avoid the 2nd Great Depression. We failed and the cat is out the bag. We are screwed no matter we do. We either stay shut down for another couple months and go into a depression or we open up the country and end up having to shut it down again or see people dying in hospital hallways and parking lots.

We won't go into a Great Depression. The thing that has to be remembered is that the Great Depression itself was not just the natural contraction of the economy, but the complete unwinding of the financial sector/system peeling itself apart like a banana over the course of three years time, while the Government sat on its hands and the Fed actively made the liquidity problems worse.

The banks are well capitalized, the Fed has pumped trillions of liquidity into various markets, and the Gov't just passed a 2 Trillion stimulus with another on the table if necessary.

People love to throw out numbers as "worst since the Great Depression" and use any manner of sensational headlines. It could be bad, very bad indeed, but the confluence of events that caused the Great Depression is not happening here.

Yes, I am hoping for the best as well. If we can open up by May 1st we should be fine. Looking at the data coming in, I am pessimistic. If we are shut down for longer I do fear longer term economic pain. Of course, it wouldn't last for more than a decade like the Great Depression, but the next few years could be rough.

We need a treatment, and we needed it yesterday. I am hoping Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin will be effective. Unfortunately, we just don't have enough data in to say one way or the other. The experimental drugs like Remdesivir I don't have hope for since even if it was effective, their just isn't the stock available to distribute it all across the US and the world. It would take at least a couple months at the earliest and the economy will be in tatters by then.