Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gilmore just happened to be Governor during a recession.

The reality is that Mark Warner promised not to raise taxes, then raised them, and then there was a budget surplus. That's, at the very least, dishonest.

Virginia already spends plenty on education and transportation. The problem is that, especially with regard to transportation, it's spent stupidly, and Warner was at the forefront of the idiot brigade on some of those issues.

Given his approval rating, I don't think most Virginians agree with you.

[AuH2O]

That's because he put up the road spending bills to referendum and the bad ones lost... so while he supported them they didn't go into effect, and there was no backlash.

Because of the single term limit, the GOP has never really tried to light Warner up anyway. Any Virginia Governor in good economic times will be popular (Allen was as well).

Splits in the GOP also gave Warner cover-- the tax increase was aided by leftist Republicans (which it has to be given the GOP's domination of the legislature) so Warner himself was not really blamed. Even in the ad campaigns against the increase the legislators were more the target than Warner because they have to run again.

Not that jfern knows anything about VA politics, other than Warner is a liberal Democrat playing moderate and thus a 2008 hopeful for his beleaguered party.

[Virginian87]

Gilmore just happened to be Governor during a recession.

The reality is that Mark Warner promised not to raise taxes, then raised them, and then there was a budget surplus. That's, at the very least, dishonest.

Virginia already spends plenty on education and transportation. The problem is that, especially with regard to transportation, it's spent stupidly, and Warner was at the forefront of the idiot brigade on some of those issues.

It wasn't just a recession.  Gilmore's work with the car tax helped put the state $1.5 billion in the hole.  He helped institute SOL tests, which forces teachers to teach to a test and not broaden their curriculum.  One of the only good things that he did was actually making sure that the lottery money actually went to public schools instead of some slush fund. 

Warner may have said that he would not raise taxes, and that was a blunder on his part.  But Virginia's constitution requires that we balance the budget, and he was facing the worst budget crisis in Virginia history.  What would you have done?

Splits in the GOP also gave Warner cover-- the tax increase was aided by leftist Republicans (which it has to be given the GOP's domination of the legislature) so Warner himself was not really blamed. Even in the ad campaigns against the increase the legislators were more the target than Warner because they have to run again.

I realize that, and he should be commended with being able to engineer that tax proposal.  It's tough getting things done when the opposition controls the legislature.  Those Republicans who voted for the budget were not leftists, they were moderates.  Voting for a tax increase doesn't automatically make you a leftist/communist-sympathizer.

Not that jfern knows anything about VA politics, other than Warner is a liberal Democrat playing moderate and thus a 2008 hopeful for his beleaguered party.

jfern probably doesn't know about the referenda.  But you and I probably know as much about California politics as he does about Virginia.
I don't think Warner is as liberal as you think.  He's certainly less liberal than previous candidates, like Don Beyer.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That's because he put up the road spending bills to referendum and the bad ones lost... so while he supported them they didn't go into effect, and there was no backlash.

Because of the single term limit, the GOP has never really tried to light Warner up anyway. Any Virginia Governor in good economic times will be popular (Allen was as well).

Splits in the GOP also gave Warner cover-- the tax increase was aided by leftist Republicans (which it has to be given the GOP's domination of the legislature) so Warner himself was not really blamed. Even in the ad campaigns against the increase the legislators were more the target than Warner because they have to run again.

Not that jfern knows anything about VA politics, other than Warner is a liberal Democrat playing moderate and thus a 2008 hopeful for his beleaguered party.

Hey, I'll take any liberal Democrat who has a 63-25 approval rating in a solid red state.

[AuH2O]

Trust me, Warner is liberal. jfern and his ilk obviously think so, otherwise they wouldn't support him. I have connections to his administration and, at least socially, the guy is understood to be liberal.

As Hillary's VP candidate, Warner will not carry VA, which is all that matters anyway. If he doesn't even get that gig, he'll probably run another race of some kind (Governor again, Senate).

But should he do that, the groups he's pissed off will actually go up against him, rather than just sitting it out (teacher's union, antitax groups, etc.).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trust me, Warner is liberal. jfern and his ilk obviously think so, otherwise they wouldn't support him. I have connections to his administration and, at least socially, the guy is understood to be liberal.

As Hillary's VP candidate, Warner will not carry VA, which is all that matters anyway. If he doesn't even get that gig, he'll probably run another race of some kind (Governor again, Senate).

But should he do that, the groups he's pissed off will actually go up against him, rather than just sitting it out (teacher's union, antitax groups, etc.).

He has a 63-25 approval rating for crying out loud.

[Virginian87]

Trust me, Warner is liberal. jfern and his ilk obviously think so, otherwise they wouldn't support him. I have connections to his administration and, at least socially, the guy is understood to be liberal.

As Hillary's VP candidate, Warner will not carry VA, which is all that matters anyway. If he doesn't even get that gig, he'll probably run another race of some kind (Governor again, Senate).

But should he do that, the groups he's pissed off will actually go up against him, rather than just sitting it out (teacher's union, antitax groups, etc.).

What are your "connections"?  And you still didn't answer my question on the tax hike.

[TheresNoMoney]

Trust me, Warner is liberal. jfern and his ilk obviously think so, otherwise they wouldn't support him.

That's a pretty indepth analysis right there!

I think we all know that anyone to the left of Bill Frist is considered to be a flaming liberal by the Republicans.

[AuH2O]

A member of his cabinet is a family friend, and I also was somewhat active in that campaign (for Earley of course) and talked to some officials about it.

Communists would not be advocating a Warner candidacy if he really was this super-moderate Democrat.

[Virginian87]

I hardly think that Warner is anywhere near communist.  Maybe they too see that nominating centrist is the only way to win.

[AuH2O]

No, because they think the whole country is as liberal as they are. They want a liberal that LOOKS moderate.

[Virginian87]

How liberal is Mark Warner?

He is pro-death penalty and for mandatory 3 strikes laws, wants to end racial profiling, abolish parole, he is pro-Second Amendment, opposes immigration.  Despite his tax raise, he is also somewhat fiscally conservative, supporting free trade.  However, he is environmentally friendly, pro-UN, and is pro-choice.  So at best he is a moderate. 

[TheresNoMoney]

supporting free trade. 

That's the one kicker that might cause me to vote for someone else in the primary. I can't support someone who will continue to destroy the American working class.

Does he favor any new free trade policies? I'd like to hear his platform before jumping to any conclusions.

[Virginian87]

supporting free trade. 

That's the one kicker that might cause me to vote for someone else in the primary. I can't support someone who will continue to destroy the American working class.

Does he favor any new free trade policies? I'd like to hear his platform before jumping to any conclusions.

I don't know about CAFTA, but he supports NAFTA, GATT, and the WTO.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't know about CAFTA, but he supports NAFTA, GATT, and the WTO.

Those have already been enacted, so it wouldn't neccessarily dissuade me from voting for him in the primary.

But any further policies to destroy the economic future of the middle class would.

[Virginian87]

I don't know about CAFTA, but he supports NAFTA, GATT, and the WTO.

Those have already been enacted, so it wouldn't neccessarily dissuade me from voting for him in the primary.

But any further policies to destroy the economic future of the middle class would.

If it helps you any, he's trying to promote English among Hispanic immigrants in Northern Virginia so they get assimilated better instead of sticking out.  That's a big plus.  He's for stricter immigration controls as well.

[TheresNoMoney]

Stricter immigration controls are a big plus for me.

I will vote mainly based on economic issues (and I consider immigration an economic issue as well).

[Virginian87]

Stricter immigration controls are a big plus for me.

I will vote mainly based on economic issues (and I consider immigration an economic issue as well).

Good for you.  I'm glad we have something in common.

[MHS2002]

New Debate Info:

Kilgore has agreed to a three way debate including Kaine and Potts, which will take place sometime in Richmond in October and will be televised. For Potts, the caveat is that he must be polling at least 15% to be included in the debate.

Wash. Post Article
RICHMOND, Aug. 9 -- Republican gubernatorial nominee Jerry W. Kilgore said Tuesday that he has agreed to a debate that would include state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., but only if the independent candidate reaches 15 percent in two statewide polls between now and October.

Kilgore's campaign said the debate would be Oct. 9 in Richmond, though that date has not officially been agreed to by Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's campaign, which would like to hold the debate two weeks later.

The debate is the only one scheduled to be televised statewide. It was organized and would be moderated by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Sabato said he did everything he could to ensure that a debate involving all three candidates on the ballot could be held under certain conditions.

"If I were the debate dictator, I'd have a three-way debate instantly," said Sabato, who based the 15 percent threshold for an independent candidate on the standard used by presidential debates for similar hopefuls. He added: "This was the best we could do."

The debate about debates -- how many to have and who should participate -- has been a contentious one in the gubernatorial campaign. Kaine, the Democratic candidate, has called for more debates. One debate has been held; another, sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, is scheduled for Sept. 13.

Potts has relentlessly criticized Kilgore for refusing to debate him, and his campaign denounced the conditions for the new debate as unfair.

"It's a joke," said Tom D'Amore, Potts's campaign director. "It's a transparent run-and-hide strategy by Mr. Kilgore."

D'Amore said the fact that his candidate is on the ballot -- with more than 24,000 signatures from registered voters in Virginia -- should be enough to prove that he is a legitimate contender.

A recent survey of 625 likely voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Potts receiving 9 percent of the vote; Kaine got 38 percent and Kilgore 37 percent. The poll also found that that 58 percent of respondents wanted to see Potts included in the debate.

Kilgore has maintained that he would not participate in a debate that includes Potts, a Republican state senator from Winchester, because he does not believe Potts has a chance of winning the election. Kaine has agreed to debate Potts, who is running as an independent, and the two have a confirmed appearance scheduled for Sept. 30.

Tim Murtaugh, press secretary for the Kilgore campaign, said that the decision to debate Potts under certain conditions was consistent with Kilgore's belief that such forums should be limited to those candidates who have made a significant showing among the state's likely voters.

"We have said all along that we would only debate candidates who have a chance of winning," Murtaugh said. "If the debate organizers set that bar at 15 percent, then we're willing to accept that."

Kaine's campaign said that Kilgore was responding to the will of the people in agreeing to the third debate. "It's clear that voters want to see a debate with all the candidates," said Mo Elleithee, Kaine's director of communications. "It's good to see Mr. Kilgore come around."

Potts could be a threat to both major-party candidates. The Mason Dixon poll found that much of his support comes from Republicans, though his positions on gay rights and abortion rights might attract some Democratic voters as he becomes better known.

"His campaign has hurt both of them, although Potts clearly has centered his criticisms on Kilgore," Sabato said. "But Kaine has to be worried about Potts's popularity in Northern Virginia and some of his stances that might be popular there."

[Virginian87]

Dude, what's with Kilgore?  I know he's worried that Potts might take votes away from him, but just agree to a debate already!  Instantly, without polls! 

[AuH2O]

Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Two pretty good polling companies showing similar results is making me think a little more that the Mason-Dixon might have been an outlier.

Still not there obviously, let's see what comes out in some others and let's hope that Mason-Dixon releases another poll soon as well.

[Alcon]

Hmmm...  Two pretty good polling companies showing similar results is making me think a little more that the Mason-Dixon might have been an outlier.

Still not there obviously, let's see what comes out in some others and let's hope that Mason-Dixon releases another poll soon as well.

Never forget Minnesota.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Two pretty good polling companies showing similar results is making me think a little more that the Mason-Dixon might have been an outlier.

Still not there obviously, let's see what comes out in some others and let's hope that Mason-Dixon releases another poll soon as well.

Never forget Minnesota.

I just always remember the 1 out of 20 rule.

Their wrongness in Minnesota in 2004 was just pay back for getting 2000 and 2002 correct when no one else did. 

[Virginian87]

Kilgore lashed out at illegal immigrants yesterday, opposing a bid to create a gathering area for day laborers in Herndon, which has had a huge influx of immigrants and id suffering from gang violence.  He had earlier proposed to police that when illegals commit a crime, they should be deported.  I won't be voting for Kilgore, but I like what he did here.