Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[Moooooo]

Hmmm.... I doubt the debates could have swung the election that much.  Anything major happend over the past couple weeks?

[King]

Hmmm.... I doubt the debates could have swung the election that much.  Anything major happend over the past couple weeks?

Some Independents are probably jumping off the Kilgore/Kaine bandwagons and to Potts after those horrific debates of Kilgore answering a question with Kaine agreeing 100% followed by Kaine answering a question with Kilgore agreeing 100%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newest Mason-Dixon Poll.
Kaine: 38
Kilgore: 37
Potts: 9
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031784027392&path=%21news%21politics&s=1045855935264

Very surprising.

Wow. Completely up in the air...

[Ben.]

Newest Mason-Dixon Poll.
Kaine: 38
Kilgore: 37
Potts: 9

Very surprising.

Good news is that it’s a Mason-Dixon Poll and they usually know what their doing especially when polling in the south, and Florida in particular.

The though did cross my mind that the fact that Kilgore is identified as the “Republican Candidate” is helping him in the polls, many of those rural voters who put Warner in office in 2001 are naturally republican and no doubt have not given much thought to this election yet and so will be saying they’ll vote for the Republican candidate.

As the campaign heats up however and Kaine (no doubt with the strong support of Warner) is perceived as another moderate democrat in the mould of the popular Warner his numbers should creep back up especially amongst the conservative rural voters who backed Warner last time round.

In the end I think that the nearer we get to the time immediately leading up to the election the better Kaine’s polling will look, that said you have to assume that he will continue to fight a solid campaign and continue to raise enough cash*… so I think the result will be close and Kilgore is polling better at the moment thanks to his party identification, this IMHO will change as the election nears and the “Warner Republicans” (like the sound of that) begin to make their minds up about Kaine.

* = Is there such a thing in elections as “enough cash”?       

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen completed another one day poll still showing Kilgore with a 6% lead. (all of his polls have shown this).

Jerry Kilgore (R) 45%
Tim Kaine (D) 39%
Other 5%

500 likely voters, conducted August 3, 2005.

Both candidates approval ratings have fallen, Kilgore's (53% to 50%)more than Kaine's (50% to 49%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor_August%204.htm

Clearly, either Mason-Dixon's wrong or every other polling company who's charting this race is wrong.

Based on MD's record, this leaves me in a position to be totally confused at this point. 

[Moooooo]

I just dont get it.  Warner has a 67% approval rating, but Kaine cant even beat a joke like Kilgore.

[AuH2O]

The fact MD had Potts at 9% was enough to show me their poll was a little questionable. Not bad, but probably not very accurate.

Kilgore up 5 or 6 sounds about right.


Also, Rasmussen has Warner at 67% approval, still very high but I think MD's poll was Dem-happy (74%? don't think so), also explaining the dead heat result.

Keep in mind, Warner had run a serious and expensive campaign for Senate in 1996. Kaine was only elected Lt. Gov. on Warner's coattails, and he almost lost anyway. Really no reason to think he is a heavyweight politically.

[MHS2002]

I just dont get it.  Warner has a 67% approval rating, but Kaine cant even beat a joke like Kilgore.

Kaine isn't exactly the best candidate ever either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kaine will win (assuming Potts stays in the race)

[Moooooo]

Kaine isn't exactly the best candidate ever either.

He must be horrible.  Warner paved the way for Kaine to ride straight into the Governors mansion, but it seems as if he has blown it.

[MHS2002]

Kaine isn't exactly the best candidate ever either.

He must be horrible.  Warner paved the way for Kaine to ride straight into the Governors mansion, but it seems as if he has blown it.

As a whole, the connection to Mark Warner is a positive for Kaine, but if he can't become a more viable candidate on his own merits, people may see him as nothing more than a Warner clone incapable of any independent though. In short, Kaine should play up his ties to Warner, while also becoming his own man in the process.

Also, Kilgore has begun to play up his ties to Warner, saying recently that he and Gov. Warner worked together on a number of issues while both were in office. Kinda reminds me of the Daschle ads that showed him shoulder-to-shoulder with Bush, and we all know how that turned out for the former Minority Leader.

[Moooooo]

Looks like everybody wants to be like Mark. 

[MHS2002]

Looks like everybody wants to be like Mark. 

When you have the approval ratings Warner has, absolutely.

[Moooooo]

When you have the approval ratings Warner has, absolutely.

Two questions...

Who do you plan on voting for... Kaine or Kilgore (I know your not a Potts fan)?

Who would you vote for if Warner was permitted to run for re-election?

[WalterMitty]

a question for all:

if it becomes apparent that potts is taking away support from kilgore and may cost him the election, would president bush call up potts and offer him a job to get him out of the race?  president clinton did that with doug wilder in 94. 

although i kind of doubt potts is taking much support from kilgore.  it is possible that he is taking some suburban republicans, however.

[© tweed]

a question for all:

if it becomes apparent that potts is taking away support from kilgore and may cost him the election, would president bush call up potts and offer him a job to get him out of the race?  president clinton did that with doug wilder in 94. 

although i kind of doubt potts is taking much support from kilgore.  it is possible that he is taking some suburban republicans, however.

Kilgore will win anyway, he was up by a good margin in the last poll I saw...nevertheless that an interesting question.  If he was running for a senate seat, which Bush has more invested in, I'd say absolutely.  But I don't think it would happen in this race as I don't think Kilgore is 'in' yet with the party establishment for them to care enough about him and his fate.

[MHS2002]

When you have the approval ratings Warner has, absolutely.

Two questions...

Who do you plan on voting for... Kaine or Kilgore (I know your not a Potts fan)?

Who would you vote for if Warner was permitted to run for re-election?

1. Probably Kilgore: I was optimistic about him in the beginning, but since then he hasn't done much to really solidify my vote for him. I'd say about an 75% chance I vote for Kilgore, 25% Kaine, which is to say that Kaine will need to do something spectacular (or Kilgore will need to bomb) for me to change my vote, but not out of the realm of possibility.

2. I would be very tempted to vote Warner. The only time I don't like him is when I see the VA taxes come out of my paycheck, but you have to give him credit for running the state fairly well. Probably 55-60% Warner, 40-45% Kilgore.

[AuH2O]

I actually think the single-term limit makes Governors of Virginia more popular in general, because their actions are harder to portray as political self-interest.

The AG position is much more important than the Lt. Gov. post, and that's reason #2 Kilgore has an edge over Kaine, behind being a Republican. Kaine was never very visible so there was no association between him and Warner in any meaningful way. Warner also had the previous statewide run and a lot of other connections Kaine doesn't have.

Doesn't seem odd to me at all that Kaine is losing. Potts' role is overrated... I imagine he draws his own sort of support that traditionally is divided between the Dems and GOP, often on a per-election basis. The more even the division, the less it matters how much support Potts gets. He could get 20% and it might not matter. He won't... my guess is 5%, up to 8% or so.

[Virginian87]

I believe the race is in a dead heat right now.  Neither candidate has come out on top, with mud-slinging mostly taking place between the two, i.e. "Kilgore's fiscally irresponsible" and Kaine has "more flip-flops than Virginia Beach."  As someone pointed out, the tax raise was hardly hated by Virginians, as it has helped overcome a massive deficit left by Gilmore, and preserve the fiscal stability of state institutions such as public schools and universities.  I think Kaine could win it but so could Kilgore, though neither candidate will trounce the other.

[Democratic Hawk]

As someone pointed out, the tax raise was hardly hated by Virginians, as it has helped overcome a massive deficit left by Gilmore, and preserve the fiscal stability of state institutions such as public schools and universities. 

Fair comment. It's understandable Democrats having, as opposed to wanting,  to raise taxes, when they inherit a right old GOP mess

Dave

[Virginian87]

As someone pointed out, the tax raise was hardly hated by Virginians, as it has helped overcome a massive deficit left by Gilmore, and preserve the fiscal stability of state institutions such as public schools and universities. 

Fair comment. It's understandable Democrats having, as opposed to wanting,  to raise taxes, when they inherit a right old GOP mess

Dave

Some people just have to realize that in some situations taxes are necessary.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, real necessary. Now VA has a budget surplus. I strongly dislike Warner.

[Virginian87]

Having a surplus means we can use it to improve our education and transportation systems.  It's still better than the massive deficit of the Gilmore administration.

[AuH2O]

Gilmore just happened to be Governor during a recession.

The reality is that Mark Warner promised not to raise taxes, then raised them, and then there was a budget surplus. That's, at the very least, dishonest.

Virginia already spends plenty on education and transportation. The problem is that, especially with regard to transportation, it's spent stupidly, and Warner was at the forefront of the idiot brigade on some of those issues.

[TheresNoMoney]

Warner also lowered taxes (food tax).