Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Zinneke]

Putin is using the border crisis as a pretext to deploy troops on the Belarussian border.

[Zinneke]

Nothing is going to happen just as nothing happened before, if Russia wants to quickly act it would be the one to strike first.

I wouldn't call this nothing, I think instead its indicative of how warfare is being played out in a setting where mutually assured destruction has been digested as a concept and the opportunity cost of conventional warfare is being weighed up. What we're seeing here is classic limited warfare or salami slice warfare in a bid to destabilize opponents. The invasion of Crimea for example wasn't nothing. This is a pariah state that is blackmailing Europe because we took the insane decision to gamble too much on natural gas to even power our electrical grids fully rather than go with nuclear. As someone who voted Green (mostly because they are usually the only ones I could trust) this is exactly the kind of situation that exposes how naive most Green politicians are when it comes to big geopolitics.

[Zinneke]

The fact that Putin is ramping up a Ukraine incursion to me is a sign that he's in some serious trouble, either immediate, or in the short term domestically. There's some weakness here.

That's my initial sentiment too, but you have to remember that this is the result of a prolonged escalation designed to help both Zelensky and Putin internally, that has now become very serious  and real given how valuable it is to both. The kabuki dance has in itself become real.

And that Putin has basically bunkered himself down and refuses to see anyone but concubines and the circle of mandarins because he seems paranoid about Covid. And it seems being a powerful billionaire doesn't immunise you from Covid derangement syndrome, much like Covid itself. He is probably overthinking so much and getting so tied into a different level of dimensional chess that he could well invade.

[Zinneke]

He'll keep them as independent states so he can sell the invasion to the oligarchs/mafiosos as a way to launder their money, Transnistria style.

[Zinneke]

And indeed the reaction of Russians from the Russians I know is not necessarily muted but certainly aknowledging that unlike Crimea this isn't devious , clever 4D chess Putin but genuinely unhinged, paranoid Putin...and that's scary for them too.

[Zinneke]

Tbf the French far right candidates also seemed to sheepishly admit Putin had gone overboard. He is very close to overplaying his hand if he hasn't already.

[Zinneke]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

The longer this takes the higher the risk that dissatisfaction grows in Russia. Putin needs to end this quickly.

How the hell does he think this ends quickly? Zelensky dying? His puppet hanging on to a fractured state with loads of militia and criminal gangs picking off young Russians and sending them out 1 by 1?

This ain't Belarus. By now there are stay behind networks that will be tossing a Javelin into a patrolling tank then going to hide in the woods.

[Zinneke]

Russian leadership is increasingly insane. German media also reporters that Medvedev talked about reinstating the death penalty in Russia now that they're sanctioned anyway. I have a feeling we're at the beginning of a second Cold War and Ukraine is de facto already a proxy war.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497524381307838467

I think Medvedev is just looking for internal popularity after his rubber duck episode.

[Zinneke]

How buyable are Russian generals? Like at what point do they realise Putin is taking them over the precipice and realize he has to go.

[Zinneke]

I feel we're doing too much too soon and should see how Putin escalates before litterally having EU fighter jets take on Russian ones. He is either gonna back track or there will be a very dangerous precipice we are heading over to.

If h try I gave go south Hungary should sezies control of trancarparthia

Stop drinking and posting.

[Zinneke]

The way he goes from Hiroshima to JK Rowling jfc what timeline is this

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-disinformation-africa-europe-sergey-lavrov/

Here you have a classic example of EU fecklessness; making a half-dead Borrell (who endorses the locking up of Catalans) the High Representative and voice of EU foreign policy rather than a fresh, hard hitting communicator was a crucial mistake.

[Zinneke]

Putin to speak soon according to the Kremlin. Will he remove Shoigu or will he order Prigozhin to stand down? The world awaits.

If Putin actually caves to this, isn't it an incredible display of weakness? As a leader you cannot allow warlords to occupy your cities in order to demand concessions. His whole image and position of authority would crumble.

I think the smart thing from his perspective would be to crack down harshly. I'm not sure I actually buy it when Prigozhin says the Russian troops support him. At the end of the day the size of Prigozhin's current force in Russia is like 1000 people tops, and the Russian forces massively outnumber him.

Then again, it's probably in the best interest of Ukraine that Putin f***s this up, and precipitates a longer conflict that takes attention and resources away from the war.

He's cooked either way. Every oligarch will be rushing to create their own personal militia to prepare for the inevitable collapse. I'm just praying they kill each other and leave Ukraine.

People give these "oligarchs" may too much credit and political power. The Russian collapse would only mean a handful of peripheral nationalists in the Caucasus try to create seperate entities, the oligarchs won't want to undermine the Russian state nor have they really had the power to remove Putin for years now. It's Western mythology.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1672497184024203265

And soon the ballet will be played I imagine

[Zinneke]

So meanwhile any guesses on Ukrainian Counter-Offensive operations to liberate Russian Occupied territory?

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672503553254883328?s=20

Still way to early to say, this could be over in days, or the Wagner PMC could simply start controlling operations vs Ukraine from Rostov while a bizarre, very Russian power struggle is still fought.

Remember the Bolsheviks put down Tambov, White Russians and still managed to invade Ukraine.

[Zinneke]

How the hell do Wagner make it to Moscow without air superiority? Either the MoD "rank and file" back them or this is one of the most ballsy suicide missions ever. I wouldn't bet against MoD rank and file being super pissed at senior leadership and the FSB too though. Prigozhin is definitely very cynical of "Moscow elites" and probably views the FSB white collar analysts and dark arts specialists as cowards.

If MoD stays out of it its basically a straight fight between Wagner vs the National Guard and FSB for the country.

[Zinneke]

Agreed:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672528633372581888?s=20

We honestly have little idea of Wagner's intentions. Prigozhin may be an ultranationalist but there are ultranationalists who are now war-sceptic and he seems to be one of them : he and many others now see the problem with Russia to be less NATO expansion and foreign adventuring being blocked, but more the white collar FSB elites in Moscow.

[Zinneke]

If Putin loses Moscow soon, then something that once seemed unthinkable for this war becomes much more likely: Ukraine retaking Crimea.

No chance : any would be successor to Putin, even if they decide the Ukraine war is overz will make Crimea a red line. The population and senior grey suits wouldn't allow them to control Russia if such a humiliation as losing Crimea would happen.

[Zinneke]

Looks like Putin is going to try to throw one of the worst dead cats you can imagine and approve the destruction of a nuclear power plant to show who's boss. What a vile creature.

[Zinneke]

Because Orban is a good excuse for the lack of leadership overall on the issue.

They spent insane political capital to give Ukraine EU accession status when everyone knows they are years and years away from being able to join the EU. And in doing so let Orban take in cash and spat in the face of Western Balkans countries.

They're clowns.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/ELuttwak/status/1756019858603438431

Provocative but right...

[Zinneke]

There are certain signals that we can make, by for example getting our defence industry to stop scamming the taxpayer and instead go towards a .ass production of artillery.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/ELuttwak/status/1756019858603438431

Provocative but right...

prison is probably too much.  I'd just not let them back in country or tax the hell out of them if they do come back.  How can a young healthy dude flee his country when it is attacked?  Sure, maybe you're scared, fine, don't fight, there are other tasks that need accomplished (ya know, 'cause all the men with heart are fighting).  Stay and do those.  Or, if you don't like your country, fine, leave, but don't plan on coming back.  Those that flee like children and then want to come back home because they love their country?  eff that noise

I don’t morally judge the men who are fleeing this war. I can understand why they wouldn’t want to fight a war. I personally would fight any defensive war for my country even though i have numerous health issues. I like the philosophy of the IDF that says that even if you aren’t let’s say a natural soldier you can still contribute to the war effort [not withstanding the Orthodox exemption], and we’ll find a role for you - there’s a genuine combination of tolerance and patriotism there. Yet I still understand why these men flee - but the fact remains that Ukraine’s issue is manpower and Zelenskyy doesn’t appear to want to address that first and foremost.

What also frustrates me is the way a lot of EU countries seem to be exploiting the influx of Ukrainian refugees to plug holes in their workforce, or conversely, some countries like Belgium have offered silver and golden platters to male Ukrainian “refugees” (many of them are from regions not affected by the war, because believe it or not Ukraine is quite a big country and not everywhere is Mariupol) and these people have come here to game the refugee system. I hate it because its taking resources and time away from genuine refugees from other countries and there was zero EU coordination as to how to equally distribute and fund the Ukrainian refugee population. The Belgian immigration minister, in her infinite wisdom, actually enacted a law saying male refugees would not obtain social housing in Brussels because of this, even though she knew it was illegal (and the out of touch human rights lawyers duly followed by taking her to court). But then did she have a choice, when thousands of male refugees from Ukraine (and of course other countries) saw the war as a business opportunity rather than a tragedy? And decided they would not accept housing anywhere but in big Northern European cities where they could easily work in the black, and thereby taking away housing from let’s say, a Yemeni woman all while receiving a stipend from the Belgian government that amounts to 20 times the Ukrainian minimum wage?

 None of this was though through properly and it’ll continue to put a strain on public sector resources, all while the neo-liberal machine will look for budget cuts (but no budget reductions for the hiring of McKinsey consultants, as they are making huge money out of advising governments to destroy themselves and their capacity, and employing the sons and daughters of Europe’s inept political class).