Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

If Putin's support is this weak, why is his approval rating consistently over 80%? Are the Russians answering these polls afraid to say they disapprove? Or is it "soft" support of some kind?

You take Russian polls at face value? That said, people speaking out aginst the ruler usually didn't end well for them. Not to forget Putin controls the entire media and flooding state TV with his propaganda. Based on that, a lof of Russian believe his lies as they have no other sources to gain independent information from.

[Dereich]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

What about posts related to both conflicts at once?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1672627034168733699?s=12

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1672626301843193859?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1672626811899899904?s=20

link to Girkin's post and a translation of it:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1672620066838396929?s=20

[nicholas.slaydon]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

The title of this thread is "Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread". How are these events not included in "related tensions"?

[2952-0-0]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

I've mentioned here before that the period of 1989-91 was a collective trauma to the CCP elite: Tiananmen Square, Berlin Wall, Gulf War, Soviet collapse. Since then, they have been living under the shadow of these events. Xi himself is known to have been obsessed with the Soviet collapse, and his conclusion was that big nations like Russia and China need a strong leader to stay intact.

Hence, his simping on Putin for year.

With Putin now set to go down in flames after a failed "special military operation" to unify a rogue province, and who knows what else will come, this will definitely become triggering to Xi and his generation of CCP elites.

[Torie]

Ukrainian forces recaptured territory in the country’s east that had been held by Russia since 2014, according to Kyiv’s military. Valeriy Shershen, a military spokesman in the Donetsk region, said “several positions” near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region had been reclaimed, Ukrinform, a state-funded news agency, reported.

[Blue3]

If Putin loses Moscow soon, then something that once seemed unthinkable for this war becomes much more likely: Ukraine retaking Crimea.

[Zinneke]

If Putin loses Moscow soon, then something that once seemed unthinkable for this war becomes much more likely: Ukraine retaking Crimea.

No chance : any would be successor to Putin, even if they decide the Ukraine war is overz will make Crimea a red line. The population and senior grey suits wouldn't allow them to control Russia if such a humiliation as losing Crimea would happen.

[Frodo]

These recent developments have me freaking out. I can't even sleep

I just woke up -I slept fine. 

[Blue3]

If Putin loses Moscow soon, then something that once seemed unthinkable for this war becomes much more likely: Ukraine retaking Crimea.

No chance : any would be successor to Putin, even if they decide the Ukraine war is overz will make Crimea a red line. The population and senior grey suits wouldn't allow them to control Russia if such a humiliation as losing Crimea would happen.

Of course it's something no faction vying for control of Russia would want.

But this power struggle could allow it to happen.

It's not like they've never underestimated Ukraine in the last 18 months...

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672603822986784768
Reports of organizations of mass protests and a call for peace, and for putin to step down and the restoration of democracy.

President Joe Biden likened himself to the Democratic version of President George H. W. Bush when he campaigned for the presidency in 2020 -it looks like there are more parallels between the two than I originally thought.... 

[2952-0-0]

President Joe Biden likened himself to the Democratic version of President George H. W. Bush when he campaigned for the presidency in 2020 -it looks like there are more parallels between the two than I originally thought.... 

Unfortunately, voters didn't thank him for the foreign victories. They understood that it was the economy, stupid.

(though that was at a time when the partisan landscape was much less polarized, of course)

[OSR stands with Israel]

President Joe Biden likened himself to the Democratic version of President George H. W. Bush when he campaigned for the presidency in 2020 -it looks like there are more parallels between the two than I originally thought.... 

Unfortunately, voters didn't thank him for the foreign victories. They understood that it was the economy, stupid.

(though that was at a time when the partisan landscape was much less polarized, of course)

While the EV margin in 1992 seems big , Bush only lost the tipping point state by 4.5 points . A better run campaign from him (his 1992 campaign was just awful) and a worse run campaign from Clinton(his 1992 campaign is arguably the greatest general election campaign in the tv era ) very much could have resulted in Bush winning

[PSOL]

I doubt even with Wagner forces taking Moscow that the operation will be as clean for the consolidation period as it was in Afghanistan. Russia is heavily decentralized and there still are a lot of pockets of power with the means of armed rebellion as well as opportunists smelling blood in the water. Fighting could go on for months as Wagner consolidates their new regime.

The elections Russia will have will be a s•••show from here on out. One thing is for certain, western liberals will not take power in Russia anytime soon and there will be no successful ethnic secession from Russia even with NATO working round the clock to arm their proxies.

[emailking]

This thread is now moving with the speed it did March '22, wow.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/drewpavlou/status/1672610114786963456

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obviously, this is pretty low on the list of priorities today. But I can help thinking - what on earth are defectors like Edward Snowden and Tara Reade thinking, let alone doing, today.

How to ingratiate themselves with the new boss probably

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is now moving with the speed it did March '22, wow.

Usain Bolt has nothing on us.

[Frodo]

This thread is now moving with the speed it did March '22, wow.

We will make it to a thousand pages -I know we can.  

[Not Me, Us]

This thread is now moving with the speed it did March '22, wow.

We will make it to a thousand pages -I know we can.  

Is this the longest thread in Atlas history? If not yet, it will be soon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This thread is now moving with the speed it did March '22, wow.

We will make it to a thousand pages -I know we can.  

Is this the longest thread in Atlas history? If not yet, it will be soon.

Yes, it overtook the previous leader (the 2020 Presidential election results thread) some time ago.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1672650234877341696?s=12
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