Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[Red Velvet]

These are practically the final results now for main cities:

São Paulo (99,67% counted):
1. Bruno Covas (PSDB) - 32,85%, runoff
2. Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 20,24%, runoff—————————————————————
3. Márcio França (PSB) - 13,65%
4. Celso Russomano (Republicanos) - 10,50%
5. Arthur do Val Mamãe Falei (Patriota) - 9,78%
6. Jilmar Tatto (PT) - 8,65%

Rio de Janeiro (99,99% counted):
1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 37,01%, runoff
2. Crivella (Republicanos) - 21,90%, runoff——————————————————————
3. Martha Rocha (PDT) - 11,30%
4. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 11,27%
5. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 6,85%
6. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 3,24%

Belo Horizonte (99,78% counted):
1. Kalil (PSD) - 63,37%, ELECTED——————————————————————
2. Bruno Engler (PRTB) - 9,95%
3. João Victor Xavier (Cidadania) - 9,22%
4. Áurea Carolina (PSOL) - 8,33%
5. Rodrigo Paiva (NOVO) - 3,63%
6. Nilmário Miranda (PT) - 1,89%

Salvador (100% counted):
1. Bruno Reis (DEM) - 64,20%, ELECTED——————————————————————
2. Major Denise (PT) - 18,86%
3. Pastor Sargento Isidório (Avante) - 5,33%
4. Cézar Leite (PRTB) - 4,65%
5. Olivia (PCdoB) - 4,49%
6. Hilton Coelho (PSOL) - 1,39%

Fortaleza (100% counted):
1. Sarto (PDT) - 35,72%, runoff
2. Capitão Wagner (PROS) - 33,32%, runoff——————————————————————
3. Luizianne Lins (PT) - 17,76%
4. Heitor Férrer (Solidariedade) - 4,93%
5. Celio Studart (PV) - 3,54%
6. Renato Roseno (PSOL) - 2,68%

Recife (100% counted):
1. João Campos (PSB) - 29,17%, runoff
2. Marília Arraes (PT) - 27,95%, runoff——————————————————————
3. Mendonça Filho (DEM) - 25,11%
4. Delegada Patrícia (Podemos) - 14,06%
5. Carlos (PSL) - 1,74%

Porto Alegre (100% counted):
1. Sebastião Melo (MDB) - 31,01%, runoff
2. Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB) - 29,00%, runoff——————————————————————
3. Nelson Marchezan Jr (PSDB) - 21,07%
4. Juliana Brizola (PDT) - 6,41%
5. Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL) - 4,34%

Belém (100% counted):
1. Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL) - 34,22%, runoff
2. Delegado Federal Eguchi (Patriota) - 23,06%, runoff——————————————————————
3. Priante (MDB) - 17,03%
4. Thiago Araújo (Cidadania) - 8,09%
5. Cassio Andrade (PSB) - 6,88%
6. Vavá Martins (Republicanos) - 6,81%

[Red Velvet]

Now we can see the map of the vote in Rio de Janeiro. Benedita da Silva did not so bad in the southern zone (middle class neighborhoods). She was able to hold many Freixo 2016 votes. But her results were a disaster in ther western zone. PT probably though that since she is evangelic, she could break the evangelic stronghold in the western zone. But she couldn't. Crivela had his best results there https://especiaisg1.globo/rj/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/1-turno/?_ga=2.188031659.244492886.1605366115-9f4cafc3-7494-6e16-b4a8-8dfe9f41169d

Yeah, apparently her base was mostly the same PSOL upper middle class base. Saw many shifting from Renata to Benedita as a last time vote.

In retrospect, West Zone of Rio was never going strong for PT or any other left option. Martha had (very slight) more penetration in these areas because of the chief of police status. It’s an electorate that needs to be slowly reconquered so that the margins aren’t so bad but for a good time in the future these places are just gone.

Also, evangelicals will vote based on their religion mostly these days, long gone are the days that economics dictated the politics of Rio. Nowadays it’s basically wealthier South Zone voting for PSOL and other areas voting against PSOL. And the idea of PSOL is what people associate to the left here, not the idea PT has of itself and that used to mobilize the Rio left around 20 years ago. Things changed a lot in the meantime.

PSOL needs to focus on energizing its main base while also trying to moderate in rhetoric to reach out to others, in order to reverse this logic we saw in the 2016 runoff:

[Red Velvet]

What's the difference between PT and PSOL, in regards to policies, demographics, ideology, and other things?

This is the left divide in Brazil:

Basically, PSOL is a socialist party in its soul and name (Socialism and Liberty Party). It was founded by PT defectors around 2005, who were critical of Lula government moving right on some aspects, so they decided to form an opposition to PT from the left.

PT isn’t socialist, it’s mostly a Labour Party who was founded in 1980 by Lula, whose main focus was to promote workers rights, etc. It was more left when it was founded, but after it entered government it moderated and now it’s more for strong social-democracy than anything. PT was founded as a left party with some factions leaning far-left, today they’re center-left at best. However, they still maintain a rhetoric and a history that keeps a strong base within self-declared “leftists”.

PT voter in its origins was working class combined with the intellectual elites. The intelectual elite has mostly abandoned the party now, the working class conditions changed and the group reach diminished since the 80s though (PT used to organize in unions and fabrics, something harder these days). Nowadays their base is loyal lifelong PT voters and Northeast areas that boomed in Lula’s term, especially poorer ones.

Meanwhile, PSOL has the intelectual “elites” now that have long abandoned PT. They tend to be rich or upper-middle class and these voters are from biggest urban cities mostly. The speech of defense of working class from PT has been losing more space to the defense of minorities from PSOL, but figures like Guilherme Boulos keep a lot of the old PT energy and gives hope that PSOL could also be a working class party. I am an optimist.

PCdoB is basically PT sidekick despite the “communist” in the party name.

To the left of all these, PSTU tends to have a pro-anarchism vibe and have more revolutionary stances than all these. But they don’t have major political representation, just like other far-left partes doesn’t. Of the ones with actual power in congress, the most left you’re allowed to go is with PSOL.

You also have the more center-left parties like PDT/PSB/REDE who define themselves these days as “pragmatists” and are more likely to work with the center-right in proposals with the goal of forming a consensus. Some of the left doesn’t like they’re likely to compromise more easily but moderated voices were extremely fundamental in weakening actions and proposals during Bolsonaro government in all fronts.

REDE has Marina and is focused on environmental issues, something that left historically isn’t necessarily more interested in and can overlook easily. It’s a serious mistake for “PT” sectors to ignore what Marina brings to the table with the environment agenda these days because that is a topic bound to become only more relevant.

PDT was founded by Brizola (important antifascist figure during dictatorship) with a tradition of Vargas Labourism and Developmentalism and Ciro Gomes proposals nowadays bring some of that old PDT vibe that used to have during Brizola, before it went to the background and moved center. Ciro also tends to have the most energized rhetoric against Bolsonaro, which helps remembering antifascist roots of Brizola to some. Something that PT has failed IMO, is on a strong passionate denunciation and opposition to the Bolsonaro government, something Ciro was able to use to gain ground on with many “leftist” voters, alongside his structured government project.

Current energized PDT voter who defected from PT doesn’t really identify with PDT of today but the old one. However, they really like Ciro and his ideas and are very passionate about it. Look for example how PDT as a party poorly performed in Rio city council (1 seat, compared to PT’s 3 and PSOL’s 7) but overperformed in the executive, with Martha Rocha winning more votes than PT’s Benedita and PSOL’s Renata.

That’s because the Rio PDT voter (like me lol) voted Martha because of her strong association to Ciro and to his project, which made us pay attention to her project as well. But if I actually liked current PDT structures of Rio, I wouldn’t have chosen to vote for someone from PSOL to city council.

PSB is similar to PDT nowadays without the great leftist history Brizola gave to PDT. They aligned with PDT in 2020 in order to increase both their chances and not run excessive left candidates.

[Red Velvet]

What is the "DEM" party?

It’s the “Democrats” party, a right/center-right one. DEM = Democrats.

Don’t like them at all but they’re better alternative than far-right Bolsonaro candidates or candidates from the “Republicanos” party (like Crivella or Russomanno) who focus way too much on religion and like to appeal to evangelical voters.

In that sense, DEM is replacing these more radical and dumber sectors of the right, which is good. I would rather have DEM canalize the strength of the right like PSDB used to do, since they’re more moderate in comparison to this right that emerged in 2016/2018.

Hell, the Rio left hates Eduardo Paes (DEM), but we’ll definitely support him against Crivella (Rep).

[Red Velvet]

How would you describe the PP? And the PSD?

Big tent parties or “Centrão”. As opportunists with no base ideology who will go towards whatever is more politically convenient at the moment. PP was the most corrupt party during “Car Wash” investigations.

That’s to generalize though, parties can represent different things in different towns. I’ve even seen a PT alliance with PSL (which elected Bolsonaro in 2018) in one interior town. Brazilian politics is very complicated and isn’t defined by ideology at its core, especially with these center parties. It’s much easier to see the divide in the left or in the right.

In Belo Horizonte, Kalil from PSD has big approval ratings and was supported by different figures from the spectrum, including Ciro Gomes. He’s an effective mayor based on what I read, regardless of ideology. In the end that’s what is most important to people. If I were from Belo Horizonte I probably would have voted for him or Áurea Carolina (PSOL).

[Red Velvet]

Endorsements in the 2nd round:

In São Paulo, PT endorses Guilherme Boulos, of course. PT leaders like Lula, Eduardo Suplicy, Fernando Haddad and Jilmar Tatto are willing to have an active role in the campaign. PDT and PSB still haven't decide if they will endorse Boulos. Russomano endorses Covas.

In Porto Alegre, PSOL's candidate Fernanda Melchionna decided to endorse Manuela d'Avila few hours after the polls were closed in the 1st round. This decision showed how the left changed (for better) in the last 2 years. Melchionna belong to the most anti-PT wing of PSOL, like her colleage Luciana Genro, also from the south of Brazil, who ran for president in 2014. Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys belong to the most pro-PT wing of PSOL. But in this new scenario, in which there is a far-right government in Brazil, even the most anti-PT wing of PSOL recognizes that it is important to be allies. PDT still didn't decide if it will endorse Manuela, but PDT candidate Juliana Brizola has already said that she is willing to endorse Manuela. Marina Silva endorses Manuela.

In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorses Eduardo Paes. Freixo also said that he will vote for Eduardo Paes.

In Fortaleza, PT endorses PDT candidate against the far-right police captain.

The PDT president declared the party support of Manuela (PCdoB) in Porto Alegre:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlosLupiPDT/status/1328873477680533506
In São Paulo, talks are happening between PDT and PSB. PDT is in a consensus to support Boulos but PSB doesn’t want to because of Márcio França thinking it could politically backfire to him later if a Boulos term isn’t successful. I think they could do a split support, I understand  Márcio França not having anything similar to Boulos but a PDT/PSB alliance doesn’t have to extend to runoff supports, PDT could individually support Boulos.

In Rio de Janeiro, I am firmly against an endorsement of Eduardo Paes. I am voting for him but I don’t want PDT to endorse him for multiple reasons:

1. It isn’t necessary, Crivella is easily losing to him. If it were critical, I would understand supporting someone like Paes but it isn’t the case.

2. Crivella’s judgement by TSE could finalize later this week, potentially making him ineligible. If that happens, Martha Rocha replaces him in the runoff and it would be very counterproductive to run against someone you just endorsed.

3. The campaign Paes played against Martha was dirty and sexist, I prefer neutrality since that way he cannot paint himself in any way as “having the united support of the left”. He will get that in practice already, but he doesn’t get to paint himself as the progressive option. PDT should be (theoretically) opposition to both Paes and Crivella regardless of who enters.

[Red Velvet]

Regarding São Paulo, there will be a big event tomorrow where Boulos will announce the broad left support he has: PT+PDT+PCdoB+REDE+Some wings of PSB (probably Márcio França in the end refused to support Boulos):

https://mobile.twitter.com/revistaforum/status/1328903254223302661
Support from leaderships like Lula, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and from other multiple social movements will also be mentioned by Boulos in this event.

[Red Velvet]

Regarding São Paulo, there will be a big event tomorrow where Boulos will announce the broad left support he has: PT+PDT+PCdoB+REDE+Some wings of PSB (probably Márcio França in the end refused to support Boulos):

https://mobile.twitter.com/revistaforum/status/1328903254223302661
Support from leaderships like Lula, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and from other multiple social movements will also be mentioned by Boulos in this event.

Do you think this is reflective of a trend of the PT not trying to take up so much oxygen on the left, or is it just them being forced to support the left candidate?

Both.

PT base of voters massively voted for PSOL in São Paulo, it would make no sense for party leaderships to go against their base when the candidate they supported is against PSDB. It would be very counterproductive.

At the same time, Boulos is from a more pro-PT wing of PSOL, which is currently divided between factions that are sympathetic to PT and factions that are not. Lula pointed Boulos as a leadership before and I believe many in PT are reminded of Lula when they see him.

More important to see is PDT supporting PSOL and PT supporting PDT in some places. That gives me hope of an union. Because PT vs PDT fight for left protagonism is the biggest problem. Both Lula and Ciro are ambitious and opportunistic figures: Lula doesn’t want anyone to steal the left hegemony from PT and Ciro would do anything to reach the presidency.

And yet these two are my top candidates lol. I guess when you’re so passionate about getting something it makes you a better fit for the job.

[Red Velvet]

First runoff polls (Ibope, valid votes):

São Paulo:

Covas (PSDB) 58% vs 42% Boulos (PSOL)  !!!!!

Recife:

Arraes (PT) 53% vs 47% Campos (PSB)

Great starting numbers for Boulos! I remember in Rio 2016, Freixo (PSOL) started way way behind in the beginning of the runoff (around 68% vs 32% I think) but close the difference as the election approached. It ended up being 40% Freixo vs 60% Crivella. Boulos already has better numbers than Freixo ever did.

Could Boulos really win this with the excitement of his campaign? PSOL governing the most important city in Brazil??? It would be HUGE for them and elevate the party to a new competitive standard.

Recife will be close but it’s a necessary win for PT. I think they can do it, because João Campos has only 27 years of age, Arraes strategy of calling him just a boy can work for people who want someone with more age experience to command the city.

Fun fact about Recife race: Arraes and Campos are 2nd degree cousins so it’s a family race. Arraes grandfather is Campos great-grandfather.

Also, Campos father was the Governor of Pernambuco (state Recife is in) who died a very tragic death in 2014. His son is inheriting his political base.

[Red Velvet]

Rio de Janeiro (Ibope):

Paes (DEM) 69% vs 31% Crivella (Republicanos)

[Red Velvet]

What is the "DEM" party?

It’s the “Democrats” party, a right/center-right one. DEM = Democrats.

Don’t like them at all but they’re better alternative than far-right Bolsonaro candidates or candidates from the “Republicanos” party (like Crivella or Russomanno) who focus way too much on religion and like to appeal to evangelical voters.

In that sense, DEM is replacing these more radical and dumber sectors of the right, which is good. I would rather have DEM canalize the strength of the right like PSDB used to do, since they’re more moderate in comparison to this right that emerged in 2016/2018.

Hell, the Rio left hates Eduardo Paes (DEM), but we’ll definitely support him against Crivella (Rep).

What are the demographic/ideological differences between Democrats and PSDB?

Most Brazilian parties have no ideology tbh. These two you mention are exceptions. Out of all the major parties/leaderships/politicians I would say 9 have somewhat of a defined set of beliefs, regardless of how weak or strong they are.

From the most left to the most right:

PSOL - Lula/PT/PCdoB - Ciro Gomes/PDT/PSB - Marina Silva/REDE - Cidadania - PSDB - DEM - NOVO - Bolsonaro and his movement

Every other non-mentioned major party represents absolutrly nothing in substance and are probably in politics for the money only (some of previous 9 are too but at least they represent something).

DEM is similar to PSDB but there are some differences. I’m not sure how to explain them. But DEM would be a moderate Conservative party, on the economic sense at least. Think of moderate anti-Trump Republicans in the US to have a parameter.

PSDB on the other hand would be a perfect fit for US establishment democrats. They’re center-right but I wouldn’t call most in the party necessarily conservative (although some are nowadays, as the party moved more right and more elitist as time passed!). Hopefully that helps understand even if DEM and PSDB can be kinda similar.

NOVO has a mix of libertarians, economic liberals, ancaps and others along these lines. There’s a lot more stronger emphasis on minimizing the state defense so they’re more to the right of DEM, although these two are usually well-aligned. But DEM is softer than NOVO.

Bolsonaro to the extreme right because his campaign was all about assembling different right-wing groups in order to get elected. So his movement represents a big mix of expanding evangelical Christian values inside politics, reducing the presence of State in the economy, anti-science conspiracies, “Car Wash” anti-corruption, militarism, racism and xenophobia, fascism, etc. Of course, Bolsonaro himself doesn’t necessarily follows ALL these ideologies himself, quite the opposite in some cases, but “Bolsonarismo” as a movement is represented by the combination of these sentiments.

[Red Velvet]

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"

Yup. In the long term, it is a terrible decision for NOVO to not have a clear set of standards in regards to social issues. Sends a murky message to their base. They’re basically a mix of a wide spectrum of different people united under the economic message of minimizing the State.

I think they originally were supposed to be this economic right wing but socially liberal party by the people who created it but they also wanted to sail in the Bolsonaro conservative wave in order to grow fast and that meant lots of members openly embracing Bolsonaro social agenda. While leadership ignored it and acted fine with it, which represented a silent support.

It was kinda good for them in 2018 to get Minas governor without a major structure but the NOVO party base is in big cities elites and universities, just like PSOL but on the opposite side of economics. And a lot of that voting potential base leans socially progressive.

I think the silent association with Bolsonaro that they constructed since 2018 will backfire now that cities become more tired of the president and that social issues are currently gaining more protagonism. I know people in university who were really excited about them but the association to Bolsonaro social agenda that lots of NOVO members have (Minas Governor included) turned them away from it recently.

This type of anti-Bolsonaro voter who might’ve been friendly to NOVO is an important base that they’ve just lost for the future in sight. Especially if “Livres” ever gets off the ground and provides this REAL option of a right wing party that is socially progressive, then NOVO will be history.

That said, it’s harder to naturally incorporate socially progressive views when your origin is basically rich white bankers and entrepreneurs who just don’t give a damn about that stuff, only maximizing profits lmao. That is 100% reflected by the party’s ambiguous positions in the social matters.

[Red Velvet]

Sorry if I'm out of the loop, but what exactly happened to PT? iirc they did pretty bad in 2016, so I was expecting them to pick up a bit this time. You'd think that with how unpopular Bolsonaro is, and with Lula coming back to the scene, they'd be able to start rebuilding. Is there a reason why that failed?

But Bolsonaro lack of popularity was reflected with centrist parties getting more strength and the candidates he supported failing to get elected. Bolsonaro was by far the biggest loser of these elections.

The Brazilian political landscape just isn’t described by a supposed PT vs Bolsonaro polarization. There are left wing sectors that are anti-PT and right wing people who increasingly become more anti-Bolsonaro.

In 2020, PT isn’t losing space to the right like it happened in 2016, it is losing space to other left wing or center sectors. And this time it isn’t out of backlash against the party, but the party failings in renovating itself and presenting a compelling message to Brazilians. They became old and rusty, just that.

I know that Lula is a very respected figure among international left (rightfully so), with increasing recognition within leftist US circles who get impressed with his speeches when it’s a discourse that isn’t common at all in US politics. He was the best president the country had since redemocratization in the 80s. Reason many people like him so much is because they feel no other president in their lifetime really looked directly to their struggles.

But he and PT also governed the country for 13 consecutive years and the party naturally lost its innocence that made people feel hope. PT became “the establishment” to the eyes of many. Brazilian society also changed a lot between 2002 and 2020, which implies that society has new demands. What worked so well 20 years ago doesn’t necessarily has the same effect nowadays.

Not that the economic justice speech isn’t popular, just look at the success of a candidate like Boulos in SP. But how you bring that message has to be different than what people were used to. Don’t focus on the past, but on the future and what it can be. Focus on the new generations, pass the torch.

Speaking for myself, I don’t like the personalism from more recent PT propaganda, focusing mostly on Lula than on Brazilians current issues. I do think he was unjustly thrown to the lions by the corrupt elites but I don’t think that is the message of hope people want to see. PT likes to focus on how things were great during Lula years, the good old days, but I want to hear projects for the future.

It has to be about a project, not one single leader. The left has to be bigger than just one person, otherwise it gets obliterated if the leader goes down. That’s why I am open to new leaderships, be them represented by PSOL or Ciro Gomes. Some in PT fear that people are trying to destroy the left by “attacking” them but what I think people are really doing is desperately screaming for renovation in the camp. Not necessarily of parties, but of leaders, ideas and proposals.

I mean, Dilma was literally handpicked by Lula to succeed him, she didn’t emerge as a natural leadership. I love her strength and admire her history! But I don’t understand why someone who didn’t want to be president had to run and get automatic support just because she was Lula’s candidate. It’s the voters base who should have protagonism in pointing new leaders, they can’t just be fabricated.

The excitement a socialist candidate like Boulos is getting is evidence of this plight for renovation. The elected leftist city councilors in the capitals show this too. You increasingly see younger, blacker, more LGBT representation. The most voted city councilor in Minas Gerais was a trans woman and same thing happened in Aracajú. This might be normal nowadays but this high level of support for these voices would be unimaginable a decade ago. Brasil changed for better in some ways, despite everything.

PT has been doing a decent job in slowly trying to renovate its base with younger and more diverse names though, that has to be said. I think they had some good names for city council in Rio this year, so much that I felt I could maybe support them. I think the upper leadership national messaging is the main issue, not to mention some of the effects from “Car-Wash” still present in the mind of some Brazilians.

[Red Velvet]

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Personally, I feel like leaders of Lula's caliber are so hard to come by that, if one of them showed up in France or Italy, I would be quite wary of abandoning them in favor of the hot new thing. But I guess I understand why other people might feel differently.

I actually agree with this, which is why I would easily vote for Lula before I would vote for any other PT figure.

This is one disadvantage that counterpoints having such an absurdly popular figure though. Party becomes centralized on them and necessary “new blood” from inside the party will never be seen as leaderships of their own. That is what happened with Dilma and with Haddad as well.

[Red Velvet]

PT had 5.2M votes for vereador in 2016. Very bad. In 2020, PT had the same 5.2M votes. Horrible.
But the composition of these votes changed. PT had some small gains in big cities and some losses in very poor municipalities in the North and Northeast. Dilma was ousted in April 2016, and the memory of the Bolsa Família (income transfer program of Lula and Dilma) was still fresh on October 2016.
In 2020, the very poor people were benefited by the "auxílio emergencial" (an income transfer program which took place during the pandemic), which was proposed by the oposition, but many poor people don't know and relate it to Bolsonaro.

I think the longer the time passes, the trend is for political allignements become more similar to pre-Lula days, even if they won’t be completely reversed.

Center-South Cities that elected Bolsonaro due to stronger anti-PT sentiment among elites are the ones who shifted the most against him. Look at São Paulo for example, Bolsonaro had over 60% of the vote in 2018 and now in 2020 the candidate he supported for mayor had 10% and the Bolsonaro approval in the city is only 24%. PT performance in Rio has also low-key renovated the party in the city, it was dead before.

Meanwhile the Northeast as a whole is still a PT stronghold but it has been 10 years since Lula left power and the trend is for them to slowly distance themselves from the party. They will still support PT in 2022 though, even if it’ll be with probably lower margins. Bolsonaro is making inroads with some of the old PT voters and like you mentioned, the financial relief support paid to the poorest during COVID boosts his popularity with this demographic.

[Red Velvet]

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) managed to put Ciro Gomes (PDT), Flávio Dino (PCdoB), Lula (PT) and Marina Silva (REDE) in the same TV commercial to ask votes for him:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DuroLocus/status/1330294015183511553

https://mobile.twitter.com/falloncaringtom/status/1330302830343827457

It’s “only” the left and center-left leaderships together in a runoff campaign but after all the fighting and resentment this kinda feels like a miracle. It’s kinda like the avengers united.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah and João Campos campaign has been running fake news about PT to scaremonger people as well, although this false aggression association is even lower level. When it’s between family members I guess they become more competitive? Also, it’s a very close election, either of them could win since they’re practically tied on the polls.

It’s sad though because Recife was the one place where I actually would be okay with either winning, with only center-left options disputing the runoff. But I don’t like the campaign of either, wouldn’t feel happy voting for people with these types of campaigns. I would probably go with Marília but just because João Campos is too young.

Rio campaign is on an even lower level though because Crivella knows he will lose reelection so he’s desperate and trying everything from the Bolsonaro campaign playbook. After PSOL declared critical support of Eduardo Paes, Crivella tried to associate PSOL with pedophilia (the more radical evangelical Christians hate PSOL unapologetic social progressivism and spread that they want to stimulate teaching gender ideology in schools to brainwash kids into becoming gay or something) and is saying that Eduardo Paes will govern schools like PSOL would.

Honestly, I think I hate Crivella even more than Bolsonaro. At this point they’re practically the same thing with the difference that Bolsonaro association to evangelicals is mostly political lip-service, Crivella existence on the other hand is all based on this Evangelical hateful narrative. Imagine someone who studied the Bible and got into religion just to explore people who lack hope and education, like a business. The way these corrupt lazy fundamentalists act like they’re a higher moral ground just because they use the word of God in vain with self-servicing empty lying rhetoric is one of the most disgusting things to me in Brazilian politics.

It will be the second time in only two years that I will be excited to vote for Eduardo Paes and I don’t even like him! That’s the low level Rio has gotten into with these religious hacks. Crivella in 2016 and Witzel in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

Using the data downloaded from the TSE website, it was possible to calculate the results of the election for mayor (1st round) and vereador in Rio de Janeiro in 2 parts of the city: middle/upper income neighborhoods (Southern Zone, Tijuca, Maracanã, Barra, Recreio) and lower income neighborhoods (Northern Zone excluding Tijuca and Maracanã, Western Zone excluding Barra and Recreio).

Mayor

Middle/upper income (663,108 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40,84%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13,61%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13,60%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 13,31%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,55%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4,16%
Fred Luís (Novo): 3,50%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,15%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1,64%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,30%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,15%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,11%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%

Lower income (1.970.214 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 35,73%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 24,80%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 10,54%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10,49%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,95%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3,36%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2,93%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,59%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,60%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,57%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,12%

Vereador

Middle/upper income (632.925 valid votes)
AVANTE: 2,92%
CIDADANIA: 5,53%
DC: 0,86%
DEM: 11,12%
MDB: 1,00%
NOVO: 7,54%
PATRIOTA: 1,32%
PC do B: 1,27%
PCB: 0,17%
PDT: 1,78%
PL: 3,02%
PMB: 0,44%
PMN: 1,21%
PODE: 2,44%
PP: 2,90%
PROS: 0,42%
PRTB: 0,69%
PSB: 2,14%
PSC: 3,22%
PSD: 3,24%
PSDB: 0,97%
PSL: 2,41%
PSOL: 20,16%
PSTU: 0,07%
PT: 6,78%
PTB: 2,06%
PTC: 1,70%
PV: 0,31%
REDE: 0,89%
REPUBLICANOS: 9,79%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 1,46%
UP: 0,17%

Lower income (1,958,530 valid votes)
AVANTE: 4,99%
CIDADANIA: 3,34%
DC: 2,78%
DEM: 10,38%
MDB: 2,16%
NOVO: 1,36%
PATRIOTA: 3,04%
PC do B: 0,97%
PCB: 0,12%
PDT: 2,61%
PL: 4,65%
PMB: 1,26%
PMN: 3,32%
PODE: 2,27%
PP: 4,81%
PROS: 2,24%
PRTB: 1,67%
PSB: 1,14%
PSC: 4,06%
PSD: 5,22%
PSDB: 0,67%
PSL: 2,64%
PSOL: 8,25%
PSTU: 0,05%
PT: 3,79%
PTB: 3,69%
PTC: 2,52%
PV: 0,23%
REDE: 0,48%
REPUBLICANOS: 11,75%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 3,43%
UP: 0,14%

Thanks, interesting context! So basically:

- Martha and Benedita practically did the same numbers in both regions. Which could be explained by them having different strengths in each place. Benedita had the passion PSOL vote from upper classes while the pragmatist left voter from these same classes probably voted Martha. Meanwhile, Martha had the chief of police status and Benedita her evangelical religion to try to have somewhat of a penetration in these poorer areas, which tend to be more concerned about themes like security and religion.

- PSOL keeps being the #1 party of Rio’s upper class areas. More than 20% of the vote with this big amount of parties is no easy task and show that even when they don’t have a big figure running for the executive, the PSOL voter is a consistently loyal one for legislative seats.

- PSOL having 8,25% of the vote in these poorer regions and being the 3rd most voted party just a little behind the Republicans (#1) and Democrats (#2) is impressive to me as well. I noticed they finally managed to elect someone from West Zone this time, William Siri, who is evangelical. Hopefully this will help giving PSOL this increasing penetration in these areas and more dialogue with evangelical voters (which are different from opportunistic church crook leaderships like Crivella or Edir Macedo!).

- NOVO is kinda like the anti-PSOL, also appealing for people from richer areas too but ones who are right-wing. Managed to be #4 most voted in this south zone region, only behind PSOL (#1 favorite party of Rio elites) and Democrats in #2 and Republicans in #3 (which ran big names like Eduardo Paes and Crivella for the executive and that stuff naturally impacts the legislative vote). NOVO is even more unpopular in low income areas though (only 1,36%, behind the big majority of parties).

- PT’s small-kind of renaissance in upper class areas, being the #5 most voted for city council seats after being basically dead in Rio in recent years. And I don’t attribute it to Benedita mostly, I noticed PT had improved (at least in Rio) its set of candidates with more appealing renovation options.

- PSDB keeps being completely irrelevant in Rio like they always were lmao. I think disliking PSDB is just in the Carioca blood, at least I grew up this way. Rio isn’t a very PT friendly place but it mostly always sided with PT against PSDB in presidential elections because it hates PSDB more. Once the PT adversary changed from PSDB to Bolsonaro, Rio was the place that shifted the hardest to the right in 2018 presidential election.

- Also, MDB used to be big in the city just 10 years ago but I guess local scandals from Sérgio Cabral destroyed their brand in the city. The old MDB strength in Rio has been transferred to the Democrats, which grew a lot with Eduardo Paes moving out from MDB and entering DEM.

- Christian party (PSC) vote having not much of a difference between regions, only slightly higher for west and north zones. Considering people there went hard for Witzel in 2018, this is surprising to me, but a good one. These numbers from low income areas actually give me somewhat of a hope for a post-Bolsonaro future.

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha polls on valid votes:

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB) 55%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 45%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM) 68%
Crivella (Rep) 32%

Recife
Marília Arraes (PT) 50%
João Campos (PSB) 50%

Ibope polls (valid votes):

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB) 57%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 43%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM) 68%
Crivella (Rep) 32%

Recife
João Campos (PSB) 50%
Marília Arraes (PT) 50%

Vitória
Delegado Pasolini (Rep) 50%
João Coser (PT) 50%

Fortaleza
Sarto (PDT) 61%
Capitão Wagner (PROS) 39%

Porto Alegre
Manuela D’ávila (PCdoB) 51%
Sebastião Melo (MDB) 49%

Belém
Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL) 58%
Delegado Eguchi (PATRIOTA) 42%

Maceió (from yesterday)
JHC (PSB) 57%
Alfredo Gaspar (MDB) 43%

Aracajú (from one week ago)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT) 62%
Delegada Danielle (PODEMOS) 38%

The pro-Bolsonaro candidates will be destroyed in Rio and in Fortaleza. Probably in Belém too. Also, the pro-Sérgio Moro car-wash candidate in Aracajú will lose too!

Vitória is the one I’m more worried about, as the option against PT is a Bolsonaro friendly candidate (Delegado Pasolini) and it will be close.

Boulos probably won’t have enough momentum to make a last minute turnaround but his campaign is already a success considering the status of smaller party that PSOL has and how villified it tends to be by conservatives due to its social progressive stances (weed, LGBT, abortion, etc). It was already a big deal to see Freixo managing to make the runoff in Rio during 2016 and getting 40% of the vote in the middle of a conservative wave, to have Boulos getting possibly more than 45% tomorrow in São Paulo shows how the party slowly grows with time, as these social topics become less taboo and more openly discussed. I think they have a bright future.

The Belém numbers are good for PSOL too but doesn’t speak as much about the party because Edmilson is an established name in the city (ex-mayor, between 1997 and 2004) and was a member of PT, before leaving and joining PSOL. So a lot of that success there was already previously established by the candidate in particular.

Also, Covas is at least civil and democratic (in these days this is important) and for the regular PSDB standards, there’s much worse they could’ve done. Watching the SP election be mostly respectful was so inspiring.

Porto Alegre is very close! Surprising considering the Melo momentum in last minute of the 1st round vote. I don’t know whether the happenings of last week in Porto Alegre had an effect, when a Black man was murdered by securities of a Carrefour supermarket in the city. Manuela strongly supported the protests against Carrefour and even went to them. But something happened for her to surpass Melo, it was 54% vs 46% in his favor just 4 days ago in the same pollster. Rooting for Manuela and the communist party but it looks like it will be very close, whoever wins.

[Red Velvet]

Who replaces Edmilson’s PSOL seat in federal congress, if he is elected mayor?

[Red Velvet]

Results in my section today:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 77,25%
Crivella (REP): 22,75%

In the neighboring section of mine it was an even larger bloodbath, as mine tends to be slightly older (and therefore more conservative) in comparison:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 90,05%
Crivella (REP): 9,95%

But these two are results from a south zone neighborhood, which tends to lean more upper and middle class, is less driven by religion and deeply hates Crivella. I’m curious to see results of places in the West Zone.

[Red Velvet]

Vitória city: 34.01% in

60.2% REPUBLICANOS
39.8% PT

Terrible for PT, especially if Marília Arraes also loses to João Campos in Recife. Zero capitals won by PT. That scares me for 2022, especially if a runoff between PT and Bolsonaro is repeated.

Meanwhile confirmed PSOL victory in Belém now, against a Bolsonaro candidate! It’s official, PSOL gets their biggest executive victory in their history!

[Red Velvet]

I love how fast the vote is counted omg. I closed my sector just 40 minutes ago and we’re already getting confirmed results. Bless electronic voting!

[Red Velvet]

If anything, these results evidence that either the left, center-left and center unite in 2022 or we’re doomed. Some people in PT still are in complete denial and think we’re in the 00s. There are bright spots like Edmilson (PSOL) in Belém and Sarto (PDT) in Fortaleza defeating the candidates that were openly Bolsonaristas. That said, it was much closer than expected and it took an united broad front against them.

That said, in places where the opposite candidate wasn’t a Bolsonaro candidate, the left lost (Manuela in Porto Alegre, Boulos in SP). Also, the worst elected candidate is in Vitória where he ran against PT and still won despite who he was. A similar thing can very well happen in 2022 if more strategy and pragmatism isn’t adopted, PT alone with PCdoB will easily get destroyed.

Also confirmed at this point:

PSB wins Maceió and Recife this runoff, 2 northeast capitals

PDT wins Fortaleza and Aracajú, 2 northeast capitals

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/nadanovonofront/status/1333194888968609792

More like the PSDB voter is the Bolsonaro voter which radicalized in last years. Question is whether a significant amount of them will come back to PSDB/shift to a more moderate option in 2022 or if they will stay with Bolsonaro.

The Bolsonaro candidates and the PT are the biggest losers this election, while establishment and centrist types succeeded. Could indicate a move to the center in 2 years, just like 2016 municipal elections (and 2014 generals too but on a smaller level) previously indicated a move to the right.

That said, Bolsonaro is a thing of his own. Wouldn’t be surprised if he kept enough support to sustain himself and go to the runoff in 2022, even if the level of it is bound to go down due to him being more unpopular these days. The 46% he made in 1st round back them will probably be something between 20%-30% in 2022, I think. Which would still take him to the runoff.

More interesting question is who will be his opponent? And will they be able to defeat him? I think it would be an easy win for any centrist candidate, while against the PT (if it’s not Lula) it would have much closer margins due to abstentions.

The opponent could be:
- PT candidate, as the party keeps at least half of their 2018 1st round vote, making at least 15% minimum or possibly more up to 25%, depending of multiple factors including Lula and how unity in the left will be in the future.
- An option from the left that is more associated to the center, in this case Ciro Gomes, who at least keeps his 12% from 2018 and can gain more from these trend movements to the center by both ex-PT voters and also some ex-Bolsonaro voters as well if he plays it right. Ciro needs to show he’s a politician for this era though and invest on internet communication to reach young voters more.
- Center-right option, likely PSDB with João Doria or anyone else representing this center-right spectrum. Could also be TV host Luciano Huck, ex-judge Sérgio Moro or even another figure from experienced parties like DEM for example. They will likely inherit the majority of the 20% (let’s say 16%)  Bolsonaro is likely to lose from the 1st round. Thing is, if divided in many candidates, that vote will split, benefiting Ciro or PT. Also, different candidates have different appeals, so it isn’t exactly an automatic transfer of Bolsonaro defectors.