Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[buritobr]

PT had 5.2M votes for vereador in 2016. Very bad. In 2020, PT had the same 5.2M votes. Horrible.
But the composition of these votes changed. PT had some small gains in big cities and some losses in very poor municipalities in the North and Northeast. Dilma was ousted in April 2016, and the memory of the Bolsa Família (income transfer program of Lula and Dilma) was still fresh on October 2016.
In 2020, the very poor people were benefited by the "auxílio emergencial" (an income transfer program which took place during the pandemic), which was proposed by the oposition, but many poor people don't know and relate it to Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Personally, I feel like leaders of Lula's caliber are so hard to come by that, if one of them showed up in France or Italy, I would be quite wary of abandoning them in favor of the hot new thing. But I guess I understand why other people might feel differently.

I actually agree with this, which is why I would easily vote for Lula before I would vote for any other PT figure.

This is one disadvantage that counterpoints having such an absurdly popular figure though. Party becomes centralized on them and necessary “new blood” from inside the party will never be seen as leaderships of their own. That is what happened with Dilma and with Haddad as well.

[Niemeyerite]

I pretty much agree with what Red Velvet said (btw, great addition to the forum, muito obrigado amigo!) but at the same time I'm too much of a Lula hack not to support PT and keep talking about those "good ol' days". Anyway I'm really looking forward to seeing what Boulos does next. Even if he loses now - which will happen - I believe he has a good chance of becoming our next Lula and building a national movement to crush Bolsonarism in 2022... Well, as we say in Spanish," dreaming is free".

[Red Velvet]

PT had 5.2M votes for vereador in 2016. Very bad. In 2020, PT had the same 5.2M votes. Horrible.
But the composition of these votes changed. PT had some small gains in big cities and some losses in very poor municipalities in the North and Northeast. Dilma was ousted in April 2016, and the memory of the Bolsa Família (income transfer program of Lula and Dilma) was still fresh on October 2016.
In 2020, the very poor people were benefited by the "auxílio emergencial" (an income transfer program which took place during the pandemic), which was proposed by the oposition, but many poor people don't know and relate it to Bolsonaro.

I think the longer the time passes, the trend is for political allignements become more similar to pre-Lula days, even if they won’t be completely reversed.

Center-South Cities that elected Bolsonaro due to stronger anti-PT sentiment among elites are the ones who shifted the most against him. Look at São Paulo for example, Bolsonaro had over 60% of the vote in 2018 and now in 2020 the candidate he supported for mayor had 10% and the Bolsonaro approval in the city is only 24%. PT performance in Rio has also low-key renovated the party in the city, it was dead before.

Meanwhile the Northeast as a whole is still a PT stronghold but it has been 10 years since Lula left power and the trend is for them to slowly distance themselves from the party. They will still support PT in 2022 though, even if it’ll be with probably lower margins. Bolsonaro is making inroads with some of the old PT voters and like you mentioned, the financial relief support paid to the poorest during COVID boosts his popularity with this demographic.

[Red Velvet]

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) managed to put Ciro Gomes (PDT), Flávio Dino (PCdoB), Lula (PT) and Marina Silva (REDE) in the same TV commercial to ask votes for him:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DuroLocus/status/1330294015183511553

https://mobile.twitter.com/falloncaringtom/status/1330302830343827457

It’s “only” the left and center-left leaderships together in a runoff campaign but after all the fighting and resentment this kinda feels like a miracle. It’s kinda like the avengers united.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In the one bright spot for Novo it looks like they'll probably win the  mayorship of Joinville in the second round:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1330914145668096002

[buritobr]

Datafolha São Paulo today
Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 40%
Getting closer

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are maybe some very crude* parallels that could be made between Lula and Blair?

(*emphasis on this phrase, I am of course aware of very significant differences)

I think there is something to that, yes. Very different people, very different polities, very different contexts, but.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is the "DEM" party?

It’s the “Democrats” party, a right/center-right one. DEM = Democrats.

Don’t like them at all but they’re better alternative than far-right Bolsonaro candidates or candidates from the “Republicanos” party (like Crivella or Russomanno) who focus way too much on religion and like to appeal to evangelical voters.

In that sense, DEM is replacing these more radical and dumber sectors of the right, which is good. I would rather have DEM canalize the strength of the right like PSDB used to do, since they’re more moderate in comparison to this right that emerged in 2016/2018.

Hell, the Rio left hates Eduardo Paes (DEM), but we’ll definitely support him against Crivella (Rep).

What are the demographic/ideological differences between Democrats and PSDB?

Although the difference isn't hugely important now, the Dems come from the old military regime party ARENA (or more accurately, a liberal wing splitting from ARENA's legal successor party formed the Democrats as an attempt to create a democratic Right); while PSDB were born from legitimate opponents of the military regime. In terms of demographic differences, the difference was normally that PSDB did very well in Sao Paulo and badly in Rio iirc.

[buritobr]

When I need to vote for Eduardo Paes against Marcelo Crivella, I feel like a french voting for Jacques Chirac against Jean Marie Le Pen in 2002 or voting for Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen in 2017

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

[Lurker]

There are maybe some very crude* parallels that could be made between Lula and Blair?

(*emphasis on this phrase, I am of course aware of very significant differences)

I think there is something to that, yes. Very different people, very different polities, very different contexts, but.

Out of curiosity, what do you guys see as the similarities/parallells between them? (Other than both being very electorally succesful.)

[Mike88]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

It seems that Covas will win the second round. It could be close, at maximum like the 2018 São Paulo gubernatorial race, but he's likely to be reelected.

In Recife, the dynasty will continue, probably.

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 47%, Guilherme Boulos 40%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 55%, Marcelo Crivella 23%
Recife: Marília Arraes 43%, João Campos 40%

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

It seems that Covas will win the second round. It could be close, at maximum like the 2018 São Paulo gubernatorial race, but he's likely to be reelected.

In Recife, the dynasty will continue, probably.

In São Paulo, the gap is decreasing, it will be very close. The good news for Covas is that Boulos is growing at the expense of non-voters and not Covas' voters. Covas is stable near 50%.
In Recife, the dynasty will continue no matter who win. Arraes and Campos are second degree cousins. Marília Arraes is Miguel Arraes's granddaughter. João Campos is Miguel Arraes's great grandson.

[Mike88]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

It seems that Covas will win the second round. It could be close, at maximum like the 2018 São Paulo gubernatorial race, but he's likely to be reelected.

In Recife, the dynasty will continue, probably.

In São Paulo, the gap is decreasing, it will be very close. The good news for Covas is that Boulos is growing at the expense of non-voters and not Covas' voters. Covas is stable near 50%.
In Recife, the dynasty will continue no matter who win. Arraes and Campos are second degree cousins. Marília Arraes is Miguel Arraes's granddaughter. João Campos is Miguel Arraes's great grandson.

Interesting didn't realise that Marília Arraes was from the same Arraes background of João Campos. Curious she's PT while the family has a history of being all in the PSB. I think Campos will probably win and follow his father's footsteps.

[buritobr]

Using the data downloaded from the TSE website, it was possible to calculate the results of the election for mayor (1st round) and vereador in Rio de Janeiro in 2 parts of the city: middle/upper income neighborhoods (Southern Zone, Tijuca, Maracanã, Barra, Recreio) and lower income neighborhoods (Northern Zone excluding Tijuca and Maracanã, Western Zone excluding Barra and Recreio).

Mayor

Middle/upper income (663,108 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40,84%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13,61%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13,60%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 13,31%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,55%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4,16%
Fred Luís (Novo): 3,50%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,15%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1,64%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,30%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,15%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,11%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%

Lower income (1.970.214 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 35,73%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 24,80%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 10,54%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10,49%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,95%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3,36%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2,93%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,59%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,60%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,57%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,12%

Vereador

Middle/upper income (632.925 valid votes)
AVANTE: 2,92%
CIDADANIA: 5,53%
DC: 0,86%
DEM: 11,12%
MDB: 1,00%
NOVO: 7,54%
PATRIOTA: 1,32%
PC do B: 1,27%
PCB: 0,17%
PDT: 1,78%
PL: 3,02%
PMB: 0,44%
PMN: 1,21%
PODE: 2,44%
PP: 2,90%
PROS: 0,42%
PRTB: 0,69%
PSB: 2,14%
PSC: 3,22%
PSD: 3,24%
PSDB: 0,97%
PSL: 2,41%
PSOL: 20,16%
PSTU: 0,07%
PT: 6,78%
PTB: 2,06%
PTC: 1,70%
PV: 0,31%
REDE: 0,89%
REPUBLICANOS: 9,79%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 1,46%
UP: 0,17%

Lower income (1,958,530 valid votes)
AVANTE: 4,99%
CIDADANIA: 3,34%
DC: 2,78%
DEM: 10,38%
MDB: 2,16%
NOVO: 1,36%
PATRIOTA: 3,04%
PC do B: 0,97%
PCB: 0,12%
PDT: 2,61%
PL: 4,65%
PMB: 1,26%
PMN: 3,32%
PODE: 2,27%
PP: 4,81%
PROS: 2,24%
PRTB: 1,67%
PSB: 1,14%
PSC: 4,06%
PSD: 5,22%
PSDB: 0,67%
PSL: 2,64%
PSOL: 8,25%
PSTU: 0,05%
PT: 3,79%
PTB: 3,69%
PTC: 2,52%
PV: 0,23%
REDE: 0,48%
REPUBLICANOS: 11,75%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 3,43%
UP: 0,14%

[Mike88]

The Recife election is becoming nasty in the last few hours of campaigning:

https://twitter.com/centraljosu/status/1332428984160841738

Marília Arraes (@MariliaArraes) TV advertising says that João Campos (@JoaoCampos) attacked his grandmother Ana Arraes. See below.

However in a tweet bellow:

The problem is that Ana Arraes has already said that this audio is not about João, meaning, it's Fake News and Marília's advertising continues to run on TV and radio.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah and João Campos campaign has been running fake news about PT to scaremonger people as well, although this false aggression association is even lower level. When it’s between family members I guess they become more competitive? Also, it’s a very close election, either of them could win since they’re practically tied on the polls.

It’s sad though because Recife was the one place where I actually would be okay with either winning, with only center-left options disputing the runoff. But I don’t like the campaign of either, wouldn’t feel happy voting for people with these types of campaigns. I would probably go with Marília but just because João Campos is too young.

Rio campaign is on an even lower level though because Crivella knows he will lose reelection so he’s desperate and trying everything from the Bolsonaro campaign playbook. After PSOL declared critical support of Eduardo Paes, Crivella tried to associate PSOL with pedophilia (the more radical evangelical Christians hate PSOL unapologetic social progressivism and spread that they want to stimulate teaching gender ideology in schools to brainwash kids into becoming gay or something) and is saying that Eduardo Paes will govern schools like PSOL would.

Honestly, I think I hate Crivella even more than Bolsonaro. At this point they’re practically the same thing with the difference that Bolsonaro association to evangelicals is mostly political lip-service, Crivella existence on the other hand is all based on this Evangelical hateful narrative. Imagine someone who studied the Bible and got into religion just to explore people who lack hope and education, like a business. The way these corrupt lazy fundamentalists act like they’re a higher moral ground just because they use the word of God in vain with self-servicing empty lying rhetoric is one of the most disgusting things to me in Brazilian politics.

It will be the second time in only two years that I will be excited to vote for Eduardo Paes and I don’t even like him! That’s the low level Rio has gotten into with these religious hacks. Crivella in 2016 and Witzel in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

Using the data downloaded from the TSE website, it was possible to calculate the results of the election for mayor (1st round) and vereador in Rio de Janeiro in 2 parts of the city: middle/upper income neighborhoods (Southern Zone, Tijuca, Maracanã, Barra, Recreio) and lower income neighborhoods (Northern Zone excluding Tijuca and Maracanã, Western Zone excluding Barra and Recreio).

Mayor

Middle/upper income (663,108 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40,84%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13,61%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13,60%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 13,31%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,55%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4,16%
Fred Luís (Novo): 3,50%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,15%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1,64%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,30%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,15%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,11%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%

Lower income (1.970.214 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 35,73%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 24,80%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 10,54%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10,49%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,95%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3,36%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2,93%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,59%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,60%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,57%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,12%

Vereador

Middle/upper income (632.925 valid votes)
AVANTE: 2,92%
CIDADANIA: 5,53%
DC: 0,86%
DEM: 11,12%
MDB: 1,00%
NOVO: 7,54%
PATRIOTA: 1,32%
PC do B: 1,27%
PCB: 0,17%
PDT: 1,78%
PL: 3,02%
PMB: 0,44%
PMN: 1,21%
PODE: 2,44%
PP: 2,90%
PROS: 0,42%
PRTB: 0,69%
PSB: 2,14%
PSC: 3,22%
PSD: 3,24%
PSDB: 0,97%
PSL: 2,41%
PSOL: 20,16%
PSTU: 0,07%
PT: 6,78%
PTB: 2,06%
PTC: 1,70%
PV: 0,31%
REDE: 0,89%
REPUBLICANOS: 9,79%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 1,46%
UP: 0,17%

Lower income (1,958,530 valid votes)
AVANTE: 4,99%
CIDADANIA: 3,34%
DC: 2,78%
DEM: 10,38%
MDB: 2,16%
NOVO: 1,36%
PATRIOTA: 3,04%
PC do B: 0,97%
PCB: 0,12%
PDT: 2,61%
PL: 4,65%
PMB: 1,26%
PMN: 3,32%
PODE: 2,27%
PP: 4,81%
PROS: 2,24%
PRTB: 1,67%
PSB: 1,14%
PSC: 4,06%
PSD: 5,22%
PSDB: 0,67%
PSL: 2,64%
PSOL: 8,25%
PSTU: 0,05%
PT: 3,79%
PTB: 3,69%
PTC: 2,52%
PV: 0,23%
REDE: 0,48%
REPUBLICANOS: 11,75%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 3,43%
UP: 0,14%

Thanks, interesting context! So basically:

- Martha and Benedita practically did the same numbers in both regions. Which could be explained by them having different strengths in each place. Benedita had the passion PSOL vote from upper classes while the pragmatist left voter from these same classes probably voted Martha. Meanwhile, Martha had the chief of police status and Benedita her evangelical religion to try to have somewhat of a penetration in these poorer areas, which tend to be more concerned about themes like security and religion.

- PSOL keeps being the #1 party of Rio’s upper class areas. More than 20% of the vote with this big amount of parties is no easy task and show that even when they don’t have a big figure running for the executive, the PSOL voter is a consistently loyal one for legislative seats.

- PSOL having 8,25% of the vote in these poorer regions and being the 3rd most voted party just a little behind the Republicans (#1) and Democrats (#2) is impressive to me as well. I noticed they finally managed to elect someone from West Zone this time, William Siri, who is evangelical. Hopefully this will help giving PSOL this increasing penetration in these areas and more dialogue with evangelical voters (which are different from opportunistic church crook leaderships like Crivella or Edir Macedo!).

- NOVO is kinda like the anti-PSOL, also appealing for people from richer areas too but ones who are right-wing. Managed to be #4 most voted in this south zone region, only behind PSOL (#1 favorite party of Rio elites) and Democrats in #2 and Republicans in #3 (which ran big names like Eduardo Paes and Crivella for the executive and that stuff naturally impacts the legislative vote). NOVO is even more unpopular in low income areas though (only 1,36%, behind the big majority of parties).

- PT’s small-kind of renaissance in upper class areas, being the #5 most voted for city council seats after being basically dead in Rio in recent years. And I don’t attribute it to Benedita mostly, I noticed PT had improved (at least in Rio) its set of candidates with more appealing renovation options.

- PSDB keeps being completely irrelevant in Rio like they always were lmao. I think disliking PSDB is just in the Carioca blood, at least I grew up this way. Rio isn’t a very PT friendly place but it mostly always sided with PT against PSDB in presidential elections because it hates PSDB more. Once the PT adversary changed from PSDB to Bolsonaro, Rio was the place that shifted the hardest to the right in 2018 presidential election.

- Also, MDB used to be big in the city just 10 years ago but I guess local scandals from Sérgio Cabral destroyed their brand in the city. The old MDB strength in Rio has been transferred to the Democrats, which grew a lot with Eduardo Paes moving out from MDB and entering DEM.

- Christian party (PSC) vote having not much of a difference between regions, only slightly higher for west and north zones. Considering people there went hard for Witzel in 2018, this is surprising to me, but a good one. These numbers from low income areas actually give me somewhat of a hope for a post-Bolsonaro future.

[buritobr]

Crivella is nasty. Not because he is religious, but because of the use of his evangelic church in the politics and because his prejudiced views on LGBT people and african religions. He was Lula's ally during some years, and some leftists believed Crivella could be an ally and that he was more moderate than other evangelic leaders, like Silas Malafaia. They were wrong. Crivella's natural ally is Bolsonaro, and not Lula
Here we can see a scene of the campaign of the 2010 presidential election: Marcelo Crivella (running for the senate), Eduardo Paes (mayor of Rio de Janeiro at that time), Lindberg (running for the senate), Sérgio Cabral (governor of Rio de Janeiro at that time), Luís Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff on a truck in Dilma's campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLVr4RHiAI8

Crivella tried to relate Eduardo Paes to PSOL. Since there were 25% of the votes for the left in the first round, this is not an inteligent strategy to have these votes. Maybe, he is trying to change the opinion of people who voted for Paes in the first round. But it is very hard.
Actually, I think that since Crivella is sure he will loose, he is trying just to appeal to very conservative voters in order to run for the Senate or for the House in 2022. In the election for the Senate, there is no runoff.

[buritobr]

Guilherme Boulos had a positive covid diagnosis. So, TV Globo cancelled the debate which would have taken place yesterday. Boulos's campaign proposed an online debate, but Globo did not accept.
The problem related to the debate is about the mediator and the staff. Bruno Covas had already covid and he has immunity.

[buritobr]

Marília Arraes and João Campos are cousins and they are only running a dirty campaign.
Kaiser Wilhelm were cousin of George V and Nicholas II and they did a very bloody war.

[Mike88]

On a related issue:

Portuguese police arrests hacker for attack on the Superior Electoral Court on the 1st round of the elections:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1332718564315435009

World - Portuguese hacker Zambrius arrested by PJ for attacking municipal elections in Brazil

A major operation was articulated between the Portuguese and Brazilian authorities. Searches were carried out in Portugal and in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, in Brazil.

The young Portuguese hacker suspected of a computer attack on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil, during the first round of municipal elections, was arrested this Saturday by the PJ in Portugal, the CM learned.

In a statement, the PJ confirms the hacker's arrest in Operation 'ex ploit', "in an investigation titled and directed by the Central Department and Investigation and Criminal Action (DCIAP) and in line with the Brazilian Federal Police".

In addition to the 19-year-old Portuguese detainee in Portugal, "3 individuals were identified and detained, aged between 19 and 24, who were engaged in the continued practice of crimes of improper access, computer damage and computer sabotage", in Brazil.

The PJ informs that these hackers "were part of different criminal networks, now affected by this police operation, and acted in concert and transnationally, attacking state functions, critical infrastructure and diverse economic interests".

Various computer material was seized in the searches carried out, at the home of the young Portuguese and also in Brazil, in Minas Gerais and São Paulo.

"The Judiciary Police continues investigations to detect and identify others responsible for these Modi Operandi", the statement reads.

[buritobr]

Last Datafolha polls

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 39%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 55%, Marcelo Crivella 26%
Recife: João Campos 42%, Marília Arraes 42%