Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[buritobr]

On October 4th 2020, all the 5560 Brazilian municipalities will elect simultaneously their mayors (prefeitos) and city legislators (vereadores). In municipalities where the number of voters are >200K, the two most voted candidates will be in the runoff in October 25th if no candidate reach >50% of the valid votes in the first round.

São Paulo is the biggest Brazilian municipality. Its population is 11M, similar to Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary and Austria. Since voting is mandatory in Brazil, the São Paulo municipal election has more votes than the national elections of these countries. Losing 2018 presidential candidate Fernando Haddad (PT) was the mayor of São Paulo from 2013 to 2016. He doesn't want to run for mayor in 2020 because he wants to run for president again in 2022. But Lula wants Haddad to run because PT will loose if its nominee is an unknown. Losing 2018 presidential candidate Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) will probably run. Mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB) will run for reelection if he recovers well (he has cancer). The far-right candidate probably will be Datena, a TV show celebrity who talks about crime and blame human rights for high crime in Brazil. Since Bolsonaro's approval rate is not high, even Datena doesn't want to be seen to close to Bolsonaro.

Rio da Janeiro is second biggest Brazilian municipality. Its population is 6.5M, similar to Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland and New Zealand. Mayor Marcelo Crivella, an evangelic pastor who was Lula's ally and now is Bolsonaro's ally, has so low approval rate that I don't know if he will run for reelection. The candidate of the center-right will probably be former mayor Eduardo Paes (2009-2016). The candidate of the left will be Marcelo Freixo (PSOL), who will probably be endorsed by PT.
We can compare PT to SPD and we can compare PSOL to Die Linke. Rio de Janeiro is like east Germany: the far-left party is the biggest left-wing party, and the center-left party is the junior left-wing party.

Haddad's running mate in 2018 Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB, the communist party) will run for mayor of Porto Alegre, the capital of the most southern brazilian state. Probably, all the left-wing parties will endorse her.

[RodPresident]

PDT did a deal to endorse Marcio França in Sao Paulo's mayoral election. França won in SP City against Doria in 2018

[buritobr]

Since the last year I have heard about the possible Marcio França - Tábata Amaral ticket backed by Ciro Gomes. Ciro and Tábata had disagreement concerning the welfare reform, but ... it's politics, they can be together soon.

I think if PT has an unknown candidate instead of Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Suplicy or Marta, PT candidate will not go to the runoff, and the center-left place in the runoff will be occupied by Marcio França.

Today, Datena joined the MDB. He doesn't want to be candidate. He can be the running mate of Bruno Covas or Marcio França.

[buritobr]

Ibope poll for São Paulo, march 22, made by phone, of source, since offline interviews are not possible now

Celso Russomano (Rep): 24%
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 18%
Márcio França (PSB): 9%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 6%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 3%
Arthur do Val (Patriota): 3%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 2%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%

Almost nobody knows Jilmar Tatto and it is still possible that Fernando Haddad can be the PT nominee

[buritobr]

Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) decided he will not run again for the mayor of Rio de Janeiro. He ran in 2012 and 2016. In 2016, he lost in the runoff to the mayor Marcelo Crivella. Marcelo Freixo told that a broad front against Bolsonaro is more important than his election. Crivella is a Bolsonaro's ally and it is very important to defeat him, no matter who. Crivella has low approval rate. Freixo has a high floor, so, if he ran, it is sure that he would be in the runoff. But he has a low ceiling, so, he would probably loose the runoff, and Crivella could be reelected if his opponent in the runoff was Freixo. So, the left-wing parties will look for a more moderate nominee.

Jilmar Tato will be the PT candidate in São Paulo. He won the primary. Guilherme Boulos will be the PSOL candidate.

[buritobr]

Due to the coronavirus, the senate approved an amendment to delay the first round to November 15th and the runoff to November 29th.
Campaign starts 45 days before the election, and so, it is better to avoid aglomerations in rallies when the number of new cases is still high.

[buritobr]

After the Senate, the House also approved the amendment, and so, the first round of the municipal elections will take place on November 15th (instead of October 4th) and the runoff will take place on November 29th (instead of October 25th). The innauguration of the elected mayors was kept for January 1st 2021. The lame duck period was shortened.
According to the brazilian law, the campaign period has 45 days. So, at the original date, the campaign would have started on August 19th. According to the new date, the campaign will start on October 1st. There are many street activies during the campaign and we expect that the pandemic will be at a lower stage on October 1st.

[buritobr]

Idea Big Data Poll

Mayor of São Paulo: the incumbent mayor Bruno Covas is leading

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 30%
Marcio França (PSB): 16%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 11%
Marta (Solidariedade): 9%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Mattarazzo (PSD): 2%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 1%

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll August 29th, mayor of Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 25%
Marcelo Crivella (REP): 16%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 7%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 7%
Cabo Daciolo (PL): 5%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2%

Incumbent mayor, the evangelic pastor and Bolsonaro's ally Marcelo Crivella is running for reelection. Well, 16% is not a good start for someone who is running for reelection.
PSOL candidate in 2016 and congressman Marcelo Freixo decided not to run because there was the risk of helping Crivella. Freixo would go to the runoff, but the probability of loosing the runoff i=was very high.
The left has two weak candidates: Benedita da Silva and Renata Souza. The left would support Eduardo Paes or Martha Rocha in a runoff against Crivella. Eduardo Paes was the mayor between 2009 and 2016. He did a good 1st term, but in the 2nd term his focus was just the Olympics.

Maybe Crivella would not be able to run for reelection. The municipal legislative branch will vote his impeachment. Crivella used hired public servants in order to block the visit of journalists in public hospitals.

[buritobr]

Poll mayor of São Paulo, Atlas September 11

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 16%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 12.4%
Celso Russomano (Rep): 12.3%
Marcio França (PSB): 11.5%
Marta (Sol): 4.2%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2.1%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 2.1%

Bruno Covas is the incumbent mayor running for reelection. Nice to see the far-left candidate Guilherme Boulos having double digit

[buritobr]

It was discovered that mayor Marcelo Crivella used his evangelic church for money laundry of corruption. Today, the legislative branch rejected the impeachment, but of course the scandal will hurt him in his seek for reelection.

[Mike88]

It was discovered that mayor Marcelo Crivella used his evangelic church for money laundry of corruption. Today, the legislative branch rejected the impeachment, but of course the scandal will hurt him in his seek for reelection.

Well, polls show him at a very distance second against Eduardo Paes. But Paes is also very corrupt, right? Isn't he involved in corrupt deals surrounding the 2016 Rio Olympics?

[buritobr]

It was discovered that mayor Marcelo Crivella used his evangelic church for money laundry of corruption. Today, the legislative branch rejected the impeachment, but of course the scandal will hurt him in his seek for reelection.

Well, polls show him at a very distance second against Eduardo Paes. But Paes is also very corrupt, right? Isn't he involved in corrupt deals surrounding the 2016 Rio Olympics?

Yes, there is the possibility that the costs of the arenas were overestimated (we say "superfaturamento"). But Paes did a good first term (2009-2012). I prefer the candidates of the left (Renata Souza, Benedita da Silva, Martha Rocha), but if Paes and Crivella go to the runoff, I will vote for Paes. He is the lesser of the evils.

[Red Velvet]

Crivella will definitely lose even if he manages to go to the runoff since there are 3 left female candidates (PDT, PT and PSOL) splitting the progressive vote between themselves. There’s also Bandeira de Mello, a guy from REDE (a more environmentalist party) who was supposed to be in a coalition with Martha Rocha but now is going to run as well. So it will be actually FOUR different left options splitting the vote.

This divide wouldn’t have happened if Freixo was still the PSOL candidate, everyone would get behind him due to his name recognition. Ironically, him not running helps divide the left more since everyone has an argument to support candidates with lower ID recognition.

Last poll (15/09) was like this:

Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 19,7%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep.) - 11,1% (incumbent)
Benedita da Silva (PT)  - 9,0%
Martha Rocha (PDT) - 6,0%
Cabo Daciolo (PL) - 5,0% *
Renata Souza (PSOL) - 3,8%
Cristiane Brasil (PTB) - 3,2%
Luiz Lima (PSL) - 2,4%
Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 1,6%
Paulo Marinho (PSDB) - 0,7%
Fred Luz (NOVO) - 0,6%

* His party is supporting Eduardo Paes so he won’t run, which is good, since he was the only 2018 Presidential candidate crazier than Bolsonaro.

People who say Crivella is doing a great/good job as mayor is 7,6%, while the ones who say it’s bad/awful is 74,5%. Outside the more fanatical evangelical base, he’s an extremely hated incumbent and risks not even going to the runoff in a very divided field.

If the runoff is anyone vs Crivella, the non-Crivella option will likely win but several stuff could still happen. I think Eduardo Paes will get it in the end but watch out for Benedita stealing some of the evangelical vote (she is one herself, although from a left party) and going to the runoff with support of both progressives and religious people. I don’t like her and would largely prefer Martha Rocha or Renata Souza but she’s probably the biggest threat from the left since her name ID is also bigger than the others who are less known.

Basically, of the top 5 (not counting Daciolo) this would be my preferential ranking:

Martha Rocha (PDT) > Renata Souza (PSOL) > Eduardo Paes (DEM) > Benedita da Silva (PT) > Crivella (Rep.)

Eduardo Paes is comfort well-known food. Not perfect but he was a hard-working person and people know what to expect from him while reminding of his term with nostalgia considering the absolute trash that is the current mayor lol.

[buritobr]

Ibope Poll today, mayor of São Paulo

Celso Russomano (Rep): 24%
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 18%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 8%
Marcio França (PSB): 6%
Arthur do Val (Pat): 2%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%

Celso Russomano is the "paraguayan horse" in the race. He is always the front runner at the beggining of the campaign, but he always looses. Russomano will probably be the candidate endorsed by Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro is not very popular in São Paulo.

[buritobr]

Datafolha Poll São Paulo
Celso Russomano 29%, Bruno Covas 20%, Guilherme Boulos 9%, Marcio França 8%

In Rio de Janeiro, the electoral justice decided that mayor Marcelo Crivella cannot run for reelection. He was sentenced for using the clealiness company of the city for electoral campaign. Crivella will appeal to higher courts, so, he will run.

[Red Velvet]

In Rio de Janeiro, the electoral justice decided that mayor Marcelo Crivella cannot run for reelection. He was sentenced for using the clealiness company of the city for electoral campaign. Crivella will appeal to higher courts, so, he will run.

It depends on how fast the courts will respond to everything. If final say is before 26/10 then Crivella could maybe not run if his electoral register isn’t analyzed. If it’s later but still in 2020, he could run and appear on the voting machine but even if he wins he wouldn’t be allowed to take the office and 2nd place would probably be the mayor?

If the judicial process goes all the way to 2021, then yeah, it doesn’t matter for these elections.

[buritobr]

In Porto Alegre, the 13 candidates will make the debate for a radio station in a parking place inside their cars, in order to keep the safe distance. They will have microphones. They will not make the debate though conference call because Internet is vulnerable, the broadband might fail in the middle of the debate.
https://gauchazh.clicrbs.com.br/politica/eleicoes/noticia/2020/09/debate-em-formato-drive-in-na-radio-gaucha-da-largada-a-cobertura-eleitoral-saiba-como-acompanhar-ckfgqtqeo000y012y4y518zhh.html

[buritobr]

Yesterday, there was the deadline for the candidates to register at the electoral justice.
Campaign officialy starts today.

[Red Velvet]

Newest poll for Rio de Janeiro (Paraná Pesquisas):

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 25,1%
2. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos, incumbent) - 13,6%
3. Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT) - 11,8%
4. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 7,3%
5. Eduardo Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 3,6%
6. Clarissa Garotinho (PL) - 2,2%
7. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 1,9%
8. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 1,6%
9. Cyro Garcia (PSTU) - 1,0%
10. Cristiane Brasil (PTB) - 0,9%
11. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,9%
12. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 0,8%

I kinda expect Crivella to go down considering how hated he is and the evangelical pro-Bolsonaro right could shift to someone no one ever heard of but has ties to corrupt establishment politicians while presenting themselves as anti-establishment (Luiz Lima from PSL lol). I mean they were dumb enough to fall for it in 2018 with Governor Witzel who got impeached this year with their blessings, so I’m sure they could do it again since they’re so proud to show their stupidity diploma.

The left would easily go to 2nd round if they weren’t divided with so many candidates (PDT/PT/PSOL/REDE/PSTU). This will be Eduardo Paes vs whoever has the most excitement to go to the run off vote and I guess that excitement could come from either the left or the right. The left will vote for Eduardo Paes if they don’t get into the runoff and the right could do the same if they lose 2nd spot to the left even if they hate Eduardo Paes and severely damaged his reputation to some level in 2018 when he ran against Witzel for Governor. So I give Paes the advantage since he will be basically perceived as the establishment “moderate” option that both left and right could vote for later in order to stop the other.

Delegada Martha Rocha could maybe have a chance in a runoff against Paes because of her chief of police background, some right wing voters could choose her over Eduardo Paes based on this since security is a major topic for the Brazilian right, even if Martha is from the left. But even then, people tend to polarize everything nowadays so I’m not really sure.

[buritobr]

Exame Poll, Rio de Janeiro

First round
Eduardo Paes 26%, Marcelo Crivella 17%, Martha Rocha 12%, Benedita da Silva 10%, Bandeira de Mello 4%, Clarissa Garotinho 2%, Renata Souza 2%

Runoff simulations
Eduardo Paes 39%, Marcelo Crivella 22%
Eduardo Paes 39%, Martha Rocha 34%
Eduardo Paes 45%, Benedita da Silva 23%
Marcelo Crivella 32%, Martha Rocha 30%

It looks like Eduardo Paes will win easily. If he goes to the runoff against Crivella, he will have the vote of the left. If he goes to the runoff against one of the leftist candidates, he will have the vote of the right.
One of the candidates of the left (Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva, Renata Souza) can go to the runoff if there is the strategic vote (voto útil). The voters of the two other candidates vote for the left-wing candidate who is polling better in the week before the first round.

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls
São Paulo: Celso Russomano 26%, Bruno Covas 21%, Guilherme Boulos 8%, Marcio França 7%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 27%, Marcelo Crivella 12%, Martha Rocha 8%, Benedita da Silva 7%

There were TV debates in the big cities yesterday. I watched the debate in Rio de Janeiro. Crivella tried to appeal to his own base, scaring the evangelic voters about pro-LGBT education supported by PSOL. Crivella also told that Rio de Janeiro was sucessful in dealing with covid because "only" 8 thousand people died and the city has 6.6 million inhabitants. Actually, 11 thousand died. Of course, a low percentage of the inhabitants died because the virus kills a low percentage of people. The death rate in Rio de Janeiro was very high, even if the 8 thousand number was true. More than one killed for every thousand inhabitants. If Rio was an independent country, it would have the world's highest rate. Crivella lied when he told that everybody looking for a place in the emergency room could find it. In April and May, the worst time of the pandemic, there was some shortage of places in emergency rooms in Rio de Janeiro. Besides Rio, only Manaus, Belém and Recife had this problem in Brazil. I think Eduardo Paes and Benedita da Silva performed better in the debate.

[buritobr]

Most recent Ibope polls

Belo Horizonte: Kalil (PHS) 58%, João Xavier (Cid) 4%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 3%

Recife: João Campos (PSB) 23%, Mendonça Filho (DEM) 19%, Marília Arraes (PT) 14%

Goiânia: Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 21%, Maguito Vilela (MDB) 20%, Adriana Accorsi (PT) 11%

Belém: Edmílson Rodrigues (PSOL) 39%, Priante (MDB) 10%, Eguchi (Pat) 5%

Salvador: Bruno Reis (DEM) 42%, Isidório (Av) 10%, Denice (PT) 6%, Olivia Santana (PCdoB) 6%

Porto Alegre: Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB) 24%, José Fortunati (PTB) 14%, Sebastião Melo (MDB) 11%, Nelson Marchesan (PSDB) 9%

Campinas: Rafa Zimbaldi (PL) 23%, Dr. Hélio (PDT) 11%, Teresinha (PTB) 7%, Artur Orsi (PSD) 6%, Dário Saadi (Rep) 6%, Pedro Tourinho (PT) 6%

[xelas81]

Most recent Ibope polls

Belo Horizonte: Kalil (PHS) 58%, João Xavier (Cid) 4%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 3%

Recife: João Campos (PSB) 23%, Mendonça Filho (DEM) 19%, Marília Arraes (PT) 14%

Goiânia: Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 21%, Maguito Vilela (MDB) 20%, Adriana Accorsi (PT) 11%

Belém: Edmílson Rodrigues (PSOL) 39%, Priante (MDB) 10%, Eguchi (Pat) 5%

Salvador: Bruno Reis (DEM) 42%, Isidório (Av) 10%, Denice (PT) 6%, Olivia Santana (PCdoB) 6%

Porto Alegre: Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB) 24%, José Fortunati (PTB) 14%, Sebastião Melo (MDB) 11%, Nelson Marchesan (PSDB) 9%

Campinas: Rafa Zimbaldi (PL) 23%, Dr. Hélio (PDT) 11%, Teresinha (PTB) 7%, Artur Orsi (PSD) 6%, Dário Saadi (Rep) 6%, Pedro Tourinho (PT) 6%

Just to double check, is the answers from wikipedia correct?

Belo Horizonte: Kalil is the incumbent
Recife: PSB is the incumbent party
Goiânia: PMBD is the incumbent party
Belém: PSDB is the incumbent party
Salvador: DEM is the incumbent party
Porto Alegre: Nelson Marchezan is the incumbent
Campinas: PSB is the incumbent party.

[buritobr]

Most recent Ibope polls

Belo Horizonte: Kalil (PHS) 58%, João Xavier (Cid) 4%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 3%

Recife: João Campos (PSB) 23%, Mendonça Filho (DEM) 19%, Marília Arraes (PT) 14%

Goiânia: Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 21%, Maguito Vilela (MDB) 20%, Adriana Accorsi (PT) 11%

Belém: Edmílson Rodrigues (PSOL) 39%, Priante (MDB) 10%, Eguchi (Pat) 5%

Salvador: Bruno Reis (DEM) 42%, Isidório (Av) 10%, Denice (PT) 6%, Olivia Santana (PCdoB) 6%

Porto Alegre: Manuela d'Ávila (PCdoB) 24%, José Fortunati (PTB) 14%, Sebastião Melo (MDB) 11%, Nelson Marchesan (PSDB) 9%

Campinas: Rafa Zimbaldi (PL) 23%, Dr. Hélio (PDT) 11%, Teresinha (PTB) 7%, Artur Orsi (PSD) 6%, Dário Saadi (Rep) 6%, Pedro Tourinho (PT) 6%

Just to double check, is the answers from wikipedia correct?

Belo Horizonte: Kalil is the incumbent
Recife: PSB is the incumbent party
Goiânia: PMBD is the incumbent party
Belém: PSDB is the incumbent party
Salvador: DEM is the incumbent party
Porto Alegre: Nelson Marchezan is the incumbent
Campinas: PSB is the incumbent party.

Sure! In Belo Horizonte, popular incumbent mayor Khalil is seeking reelection. In Porto Alegre, incumbent mayor is very unpopular. In other cities, the mayors have already served two terms and may not run for reelection.
According to Brazilian constitution, mayors (and governors and presidents) can have an unlimited number of terms, but no more than two in a row. Example: Mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes was elected in 2008 and reelected in 2012. He could not run in 2016. But he is running in 2020. If he is elected, he can run for reelection in 2024, but not in 2028.