Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)
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buritobr
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« Reply #150 on: November 17, 2020, 07:36:47 PM »

In the past, DEM used to be on the right of PSDB. Nowadays, this difference is not important anymore, since PSDB has right-wing new leaderships.
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buritobr
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« Reply #151 on: November 17, 2020, 07:46:17 PM »

Endorsements in the 2nd round:

In São Paulo, PT endorses Guilherme Boulos, of course. PT leaders like Lula, Eduardo Suplicy, Fernando Haddad and Jilmar Tatto are willing to have an active role in the campaign. PDT and PSB still haven't decide if they will endorse Boulos. Russomano endorses Covas.

In Porto Alegre, PSOL's candidate Fernanda Melchionna decided to endorse Manuela d'Avila few hours after the polls were closed in the 1st round. This decision showed how the left changed (for better) in the last 2 years. Melchionna belong to the most anti-PT wing of PSOL, like her colleage Luciana Genro, also from the south of Brazil, who ran for president in 2014. Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys belong to the most pro-PT wing of PSOL. But in this new scenario, in which there is a far-right government in Brazil, even the most anti-PT wing of PSOL recognizes that it is important to be allies. PDT still didn't decide if it will endorse Manuela, but PDT candidate Juliana Brizola has already said that she is willing to endorse Manuela. Marina Silva endorses Manuela.

In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorses Eduardo Paes. Freixo also said that he will vote for Eduardo Paes.

In Fortaleza, PT endorses PDT candidate against the far-right police captain.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #152 on: November 17, 2020, 10:46:13 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2020, 10:49:24 PM by Red Velvet »

Endorsements in the 2nd round:

In São Paulo, PT endorses Guilherme Boulos, of course. PT leaders like Lula, Eduardo Suplicy, Fernando Haddad and Jilmar Tatto are willing to have an active role in the campaign. PDT and PSB still haven't decide if they will endorse Boulos. Russomano endorses Covas.

In Porto Alegre, PSOL's candidate Fernanda Melchionna decided to endorse Manuela d'Avila few hours after the polls were closed in the 1st round. This decision showed how the left changed (for better) in the last 2 years. Melchionna belong to the most anti-PT wing of PSOL, like her colleage Luciana Genro, also from the south of Brazil, who ran for president in 2014. Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys belong to the most pro-PT wing of PSOL. But in this new scenario, in which there is a far-right government in Brazil, even the most anti-PT wing of PSOL recognizes that it is important to be allies. PDT still didn't decide if it will endorse Manuela, but PDT candidate Juliana Brizola has already said that she is willing to endorse Manuela. Marina Silva endorses Manuela.

In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorses Eduardo Paes. Freixo also said that he will vote for Eduardo Paes.

In Fortaleza, PT endorses PDT candidate against the far-right police captain.

The PDT president declared the party support of Manuela (PCdoB) in Porto Alegre:


In São Paulo, talks are happening between PDT and PSB. PDT is in a consensus to support Boulos but PSB doesn’t want to because of Márcio França thinking it could politically backfire to him later if a Boulos term isn’t successful. I think they could do a split support, I understand  Márcio França not having anything similar to Boulos but a PDT/PSB alliance doesn’t have to extend to runoff supports, PDT could individually support Boulos.

In Rio de Janeiro, I am firmly against an endorsement of Eduardo Paes. I am voting for him but I don’t want PDT to endorse him for multiple reasons:

1. It isn’t necessary, Crivella is easily losing to him. If it were critical, I would understand supporting someone like Paes but it isn’t the case.

2. Crivella’s judgement by TSE could finalize later this week, potentially making him ineligible. If that happens, Martha Rocha replaces him in the runoff and it would be very counterproductive to run against someone you just endorsed.

3. The campaign Paes played against Martha was dirty and sexist, I prefer neutrality since that way he cannot paint himself in any way as “having the united support of the left”. He will get that in practice already, but he doesn’t get to paint himself as the progressive option. PDT should be (theoretically) opposition to both Paes and Crivella regardless of who enters.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #153 on: November 17, 2020, 11:10:38 PM »

Regarding São Paulo, there will be a big event tomorrow where Boulos will announce the broad left support he has: PT+PDT+PCdoB+REDE+Some wings of PSB (probably Márcio França in the end refused to support Boulos):


Support from leaderships like Lula, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and from other multiple social movements will also be mentioned by Boulos in this event.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #154 on: November 18, 2020, 03:14:23 PM »

Regarding São Paulo, there will be a big event tomorrow where Boulos will announce the broad left support he has: PT+PDT+PCdoB+REDE+Some wings of PSB (probably Márcio França in the end refused to support Boulos):


Support from leaderships like Lula, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and from other multiple social movements will also be mentioned by Boulos in this event.

Do you think this is reflective of a trend of the PT not trying to take up so much oxygen on the left, or is it just them being forced to support the left candidate?
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buritobr
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« Reply #155 on: November 18, 2020, 03:40:28 PM »

PDT confirmed the official endorsement to Guilherme Boulos
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #156 on: November 18, 2020, 03:51:13 PM »

An excellent breakdown of the results and changes from 2016.

Mayors:

DEM +191
PP +186
PSD +111
REP + 103
AVAN +67
PODE +66
PSL +60
PL +44
PATRI +35
SD +32
PSC +28
CIDA +17
PSOL +2
REDE -1
PRTB -3
PMB -3
DC -7
PROS -11
PTC -15
PMN -16
PDT -23
PCdoB -35
PTB -44
PV -54
PT -75
PSB -157
MDB -271
PSDB -287

Councillors:

PP +1589
DEM +1414
PSD +1010
REP +961
PODE +755
AVAN +557
PL +443
PSL +321
PATRI +197
PSOL +31
NOVO +25
PCB -1
PSC -27
REDE -36
CIDA -103
SD -103
PT -157
PMB -170
PRTB -173
PROS -238
MDB -251
DC -298
PCdoB -318
PMNN -330
PDT -337
PTC -354
PTB -600
PSB -630
PV -718
PSDB -996

Old parties with old names were massacred by old parties with new names.

Especially on the right, PSDB was massacred first by PSDB knockoffs, then by the evangelical and pro-Bolsonaro parties, then by anti-systemic right wing parties. On that note, I'm pretty surprised PSL did so well after Bolsonaro left. Apparently the anti-systemic right is less tied to his personality than people thought. Hard to say how well Bolsonaro supporters did among that group though, since parties like Patriota had both some of his biggest fans and detractors too like the MBL.

The only party left of center to win big was Avante, showing that not only is there demand for PSDB with fresh paint but there's also demand for PT/PDT knockoffs too. I guess PSoL came out ahead too particularly in SP but then again I thought Novo ran a pretty sclerotic campaign and they ended up somehow picking up a similar number of new councilors. I was also wrong that Novo didn't make any runoffs; apparently they managed a close second in Joinville.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #157 on: November 18, 2020, 04:47:00 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2020, 04:56:54 PM by Red Velvet »

Regarding São Paulo, there will be a big event tomorrow where Boulos will announce the broad left support he has: PT+PDT+PCdoB+REDE+Some wings of PSB (probably Márcio França in the end refused to support Boulos):


Support from leaderships like Lula, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and from other multiple social movements will also be mentioned by Boulos in this event.

Do you think this is reflective of a trend of the PT not trying to take up so much oxygen on the left, or is it just them being forced to support the left candidate?

Both.

PT base of voters massively voted for PSOL in São Paulo, it would make no sense for party leaderships to go against their base when the candidate they supported is against PSDB. It would be very counterproductive.

At the same time, Boulos is from a more pro-PT wing of PSOL, which is currently divided between factions that are sympathetic to PT and factions that are not. Lula pointed Boulos as a leadership before and I believe many in PT are reminded of Lula when they see him.

More important to see is PDT supporting PSOL and PT supporting PDT in some places. That gives me hope of an union. Because PT vs PDT fight for left protagonism is the biggest problem. Both Lula and Ciro are ambitious and opportunistic figures: Lula doesn’t want anyone to steal the left hegemony from PT and Ciro would do anything to reach the presidency.

And yet these two are my top candidates lol. I guess when you’re so passionate about getting something it makes you a better fit for the job.
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PSOL
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« Reply #158 on: November 18, 2020, 04:48:58 PM »

I’m honestly kind of saddened that the PCB lost a councilor seat. Was it their only one?
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buritobr
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« Reply #159 on: November 18, 2020, 04:58:59 PM »

The total votes for councilor are better thermomether of partisan strengh than the total votes for mayor. In the election for councilor, people vote in the candidates of their favorite parties. In the election for mayor, sometimes it is not possible, because some parties don't have candidates in some cities and because sometimes parties don't have competitive candidates.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #160 on: November 18, 2020, 05:16:48 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2020, 05:28:18 PM by Red Velvet »

First runoff polls (Ibope, valid votes):

São Paulo:

Covas (PSDB) 58% vs 42% Boulos (PSOL)  !!!!!

Recife:

Arraes (PT) 53% vs 47% Campos (PSB)

Great starting numbers for Boulos! I remember in Rio 2016, Freixo (PSOL) started way way behind in the beginning of the runoff (around 68% vs 32% I think) but close the difference as the election approached. It ended up being 40% Freixo vs 60% Crivella. Boulos already has better numbers than Freixo ever did.

Could Boulos really win this with the excitement of his campaign? PSOL governing the most important city in Brazil??? It would be HUGE for them and elevate the party to a new competitive standard.

Recife will be close but it’s a necessary win for PT. I think they can do it, because João Campos has only 27 years of age, Arraes strategy of calling him just a boy can work for people who want someone with more age experience to command the city.

Fun fact about Recife race: Arraes and Campos are 2nd degree cousins so it’s a family race. Arraes grandfather is Campos great-grandfather.

Also, Campos father was the Governor of Pernambuco (state Recife is in) who died a very tragic death in 2014. His son is inheriting his political base.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #161 on: November 18, 2020, 05:26:54 PM »

Rio de Janeiro (Ibope):

Paes (DEM) 69% vs 31% Crivella (Republicanos)
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #162 on: November 19, 2020, 02:40:36 AM »
« Edited: November 19, 2020, 02:44:18 AM by Red Velvet »


It’s the “Democrats” party, a right/center-right one. DEM = Democrats.

Don’t like them at all but they’re better alternative than far-right Bolsonaro candidates or candidates from the “Republicanos” party (like Crivella or Russomanno) who focus way too much on religion and like to appeal to evangelical voters.

In that sense, DEM is replacing these more radical and dumber sectors of the right, which is good. I would rather have DEM canalize the strength of the right like PSDB used to do, since they’re more moderate in comparison to this right that emerged in 2016/2018.

Hell, the Rio left hates Eduardo Paes (DEM), but we’ll definitely support him against Crivella (Rep).

What are the demographic/ideological differences between Democrats and PSDB?

Most Brazilian parties have no ideology tbh. These two you mention are exceptions. Out of all the major parties/leaderships/politicians I would say 9 have somewhat of a defined set of beliefs, regardless of how weak or strong they are.

From the most left to the most right:

PSOL - Lula/PT/PCdoB - Ciro Gomes/PDT/PSB - Marina Silva/REDE - Cidadania - PSDB - DEM - NOVO - Bolsonaro and his movement

Every other non-mentioned major party represents absolutrly nothing in substance and are probably in politics for the money only (some of previous 9 are too but at least they represent something).

DEM is similar to PSDB but there are some differences. I’m not sure how to explain them. But DEM would be a moderate Conservative party, on the economic sense at least. Think of moderate anti-Trump Republicans in the US to have a parameter.

PSDB on the other hand would be a perfect fit for US establishment democrats. They’re center-right but I wouldn’t call most in the party necessarily conservative (although some are nowadays, as the party moved more right and more elitist as time passed!). Hopefully that helps understand even if DEM and PSDB can be kinda similar.

NOVO has a mix of libertarians, economic liberals, ancaps and others along these lines. There’s a lot more stronger emphasis on minimizing the state defense so they’re more to the right of DEM, although these two are usually well-aligned. But DEM is softer than NOVO.

Bolsonaro to the extreme right because his campaign was all about assembling different right-wing groups in order to get elected. So his movement represents a big mix of expanding evangelical Christian values inside politics, reducing the presence of State in the economy, anti-science conspiracies, “Car Wash” anti-corruption, militarism, racism and xenophobia, fascism, etc. Of course, Bolsonaro himself doesn’t necessarily follows ALL these ideologies himself, quite the opposite in some cases, but “Bolsonarismo” as a movement is represented by the combination of these sentiments.
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buritobr
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« Reply #163 on: November 20, 2020, 10:42:23 AM »

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"
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buritobr
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« Reply #164 on: November 20, 2020, 06:59:00 PM »

Number of million votes for vereador each party received in the sum of all Brazilian cities

MDB 8.2
PSD 7.6
Progressistas 7.2
DEM 6.3
PSDB 6.1
Republicanos 5.3
PT 5.2
PL 5.2
PDT 5.1
PSB 4.8
PTB 3.8
Podemos 3.5
PSC 3.2
Cidadania 3.1
PSL 3.0
Solidariedade 2.7
Avante 2.4
Patriota 2.3
PV 1.9
PROS 1.9
PCdoB 1.6
PSOL 1.5
PRTB 1.1
PTC 1.0
https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/votos-em-vereador-do-dem-disparam-em-2020-mas-mdb-ainda-lidera-2/
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #165 on: November 21, 2020, 02:57:25 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2020, 03:18:06 AM by Red Velvet »

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"

Yup. In the long term, it is a terrible decision for NOVO to not have a clear set of standards in regards to social issues. Sends a murky message to their base. They’re basically a mix of a wide spectrum of different people united under the economic message of minimizing the State.

I think they originally were supposed to be this economic right wing but socially liberal party by the people who created it but they also wanted to sail in the Bolsonaro conservative wave in order to grow fast and that meant lots of members openly embracing Bolsonaro social agenda. While leadership ignored it and acted fine with it, which represented a silent support.

It was kinda good for them in 2018 to get Minas governor without a major structure but the NOVO party base is in big cities elites and universities, just like PSOL but on the opposite side of economics. And a lot of that voting potential base leans socially progressive.

I think the silent association with Bolsonaro that they constructed since 2018 will backfire now that cities become more tired of the president and that social issues are currently gaining more protagonism. I know people in university who were really excited about them but the association to Bolsonaro social agenda that lots of NOVO members have (Minas Governor included) turned them away from it recently.

This type of anti-Bolsonaro voter who might’ve been friendly to NOVO is an important base that they’ve just lost for the future in sight. Especially if “Livres” ever gets off the ground and provides this REAL option of a right wing party that is socially progressive, then NOVO will be history.

That said, it’s harder to naturally incorporate socially progressive views when your origin is basically rich white bankers and entrepreneurs who just don’t give a damn about that stuff, only maximizing profits lmao. That is 100% reflected by the party’s ambiguous positions in the social matters.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #166 on: November 21, 2020, 03:43:47 AM »

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"

Yup. In the long term, it is a terrible decision for NOVO to not have a clear set of standards in regards to social issues. Sends a murky message to their base. They’re basically a mix of a wide spectrum of different people united under the economic message of minimizing the State.

I think they originally were supposed to be this economic right wing but socially liberal party by the people who created it but they also wanted to sail in the Bolsonaro conservative wave in order to grow fast and that meant lots of members openly embracing Bolsonaro social agenda. While leadership ignored it and acted fine with it, which represented a silent support.

It was kinda good for them in 2018 to get Minas governor without a major structure but the NOVO party base is in big cities elites and universities, just like PSOL but on the opposite side of economics. And a lot of that voting potential base leans socially progressive.

I think the silent association with Bolsonaro that they constructed since 2018 will backfire now that cities become more tired of the president and that social issues are currently gaining more protagonism. I know people in university who were really excited about them but the association to Bolsonaro social agenda that lots of NOVO members have (Minas Governor included) turned them away from it recently.

This type of anti-Bolsonaro voter who might’ve been friendly to NOVO is an important base that they’ve just lost for the future in sight. Especially if “Livres” ever gets off the ground and provides this REAL option of a right wing party that is socially progressive, then NOVO will be history.

That said, it’s harder to naturally incorporate socially progressive views when your origin is basically rich white bankers and entrepreneurs who just don’t give a damn about that stuff, only maximizing profits lmao. That is 100% reflected by the party’s ambiguous positions in the social matters.

If Novo went the way of Zema and hedged its support of Bolsonaro less it might be in a good position to pick up the secular supporters of Bolsonaro whenever he leaves office. Of course it would sacrifice a lot of those upper crust supporters in the city and it probably wouldn't be competitive in Joinville but at least it would be a party that could compete reasonably well among people that aren't tycoons. Walking the middle path ends up leaving neither side happy (though Zema's approval is high enough that he's got pretty good odds of hanging on next time).

Livres kind of illustrates a repeating principle in Brazilian politics: rather than make a new party, everyone just takes over a preexisting one. First Livres tried to take over PSL, then Bolsonaro took over and caused PSL to leave, then Bolsonaro left when the founder wouldn't hand over the keys to the treasury and through some bizarre dark magic PSL somehow won a ton of new mayors and councilors (maybe some people forgot he'd left)? One wonders whether the reason Novo runs such a bloodless campaign is to avoid offending the half dozen billionaires it takes to pay all the lawyers enough to get a party officially certified.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #167 on: November 21, 2020, 07:35:58 AM »

New Party, eh?

Never been an example of something called that veering off in an unsavoury direction before Wink
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #168 on: November 21, 2020, 08:02:30 AM »

New Party, eh?

Never been an example of something called that veering off in an unsavoury direction before Wink

Lmaooo

Though that one was not exactly founded by CEOs of banks or free-market worshippers... more like the opposite.
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buritobr
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« Reply #169 on: November 21, 2020, 02:51:00 PM »

Comparing the 2016 and 2020 elections for mayor of Rio de Janeiro according to ideology

2016
Left and center-left = Freixo + Jandira + Molon + Garcia = 23.22%
Center-right = Pedro Paulo + Índio + Osório = 33.73%
Far-right = Crivella + Flávio Bolsonaro + Carmen = 43.05%

2020
Left and center-left = Martha + Benedita + Renata + Bandeira + Garcia = 28.40%
Center-right = Paes + Messina + Clarissa = 40.40%
Far-right = Crivella + Luiz Lima + Fred + Glória + Sued = 31.18%

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_municipal_do_Rio_de_Janeiro_em_2016
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_municipal_do_Rio_de_Janeiro_em_2020

We can see that the center-right increased, the far-right declined and the (center-)left had small gains even without a charismatic candidate like Freixo. But we have to recognize that Crivella was not so identified to the far-right in 2016 as he is in 2020. The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020 is that in 2016, almost all the votes from the left were concentrated in Marcelo Freixo, so that he could go to the runoff. The center-right vote was split among Pedro Paulo, Índio da Costa and Carlos Osório. In 2020, the vote for the left was split so that the left could not go to the runoff. The center-right vote was concentrated in Eduardo Paes.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #170 on: November 21, 2020, 10:25:18 PM »

Sorry if I'm out of the loop, but what exactly happened to PT? iirc they did pretty bad in 2016, so I was expecting them to pick up a bit this time. You'd think that with how unpopular Bolsonaro is, and with Lula coming back to the scene, they'd be able to start rebuilding. Is there a reason why that failed?
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #171 on: November 21, 2020, 11:55:04 PM »

Sorry if I'm out of the loop, but what exactly happened to PT? iirc they did pretty bad in 2016, so I was expecting them to pick up a bit this time. You'd think that with how unpopular Bolsonaro is, and with Lula coming back to the scene, they'd be able to start rebuilding. Is there a reason why that failed?

But Bolsonaro lack of popularity was reflected with centrist parties getting more strength and the candidates he supported failing to get elected. Bolsonaro was by far the biggest loser of these elections.

The Brazilian political landscape just isn’t described by a supposed PT vs Bolsonaro polarization. There are left wing sectors that are anti-PT and right wing people who increasingly become more anti-Bolsonaro.

In 2020, PT isn’t losing space to the right like it happened in 2016, it is losing space to other left wing or center sectors. And this time it isn’t out of backlash against the party, but the party failings in renovating itself and presenting a compelling message to Brazilians. They became old and rusty, just that.

I know that Lula is a very respected figure among international left (rightfully so), with increasing recognition within leftist US circles who get impressed with his speeches when it’s a discourse that isn’t common at all in US politics. He was the best president the country had since redemocratization in the 80s. Reason many people like him so much is because they feel no other president in their lifetime really looked directly to their struggles.

But he and PT also governed the country for 13 consecutive years and the party naturally lost its innocence that made people feel hope. PT became “the establishment” to the eyes of many. Brazilian society also changed a lot between 2002 and 2020, which implies that society has new demands. What worked so well 20 years ago doesn’t necessarily has the same effect nowadays.

Not that the economic justice speech isn’t popular, just look at the success of a candidate like Boulos in SP. But how you bring that message has to be different than what people were used to. Don’t focus on the past, but on the future and what it can be. Focus on the new generations, pass the torch.

Speaking for myself, I don’t like the personalism from more recent PT propaganda, focusing mostly on Lula than on Brazilians current issues. I do think he was unjustly thrown to the lions by the corrupt elites but I don’t think that is the message of hope people want to see. PT likes to focus on how things were great during Lula years, the good old days, but I want to hear projects for the future.

It has to be about a project, not one single leader. The left has to be bigger than just one person, otherwise it gets obliterated if the leader goes down. That’s why I am open to new leaderships, be them represented by PSOL or Ciro Gomes. Some in PT fear that people are trying to destroy the left by “attacking” them but what I think people are really doing is desperately screaming for renovation in the camp. Not necessarily of parties, but of leaders, ideas and proposals.

I mean, Dilma was literally handpicked by Lula to succeed him, she didn’t emerge as a natural leadership. I love her strength and admire her history! But I don’t understand why someone who didn’t want to be president had to run and get automatic support just because she was Lula’s candidate. It’s the voters base who should have protagonism in pointing new leaders, they can’t just be fabricated.

The excitement a socialist candidate like Boulos is getting is evidence of this plight for renovation. The elected leftist city councilors in the capitals show this too. You increasingly see younger, blacker, more LGBT representation. The most voted city councilor in Minas Gerais was a trans woman and same thing happened in Aracajú. This might be normal nowadays but this high level of support for these voices would be unimaginable a decade ago. Brasil changed for better in some ways, despite everything.

PT has been doing a decent job in slowly trying to renovate its base with younger and more diverse names though, that has to be said. I think they had some good names for city council in Rio this year, so much that I felt I could maybe support them. I think the upper leadership national messaging is the main issue, not to mention some of the effects from “Car-Wash” still present in the mind of some Brazilians.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #172 on: November 22, 2020, 04:08:13 AM »

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Personally, I feel like leaders of Lula's caliber are so hard to come by that, if one of them showed up in France or Italy, I would be quite wary of abandoning them in favor of the hot new thing. But I guess I understand why other people might feel differently.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #173 on: November 22, 2020, 04:30:48 AM »

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Personally, I feel like leaders of Lula's caliber are so hard to come by that, if one of them showed up in France or Italy, I would be quite wary of abandoning them in favor of the hot new thing. But I guess I understand why other people might feel differently.

If someone of Lula's caliber shows up in Italy... no I can't, it's just beyond my imagination.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #174 on: November 22, 2020, 07:47:40 AM »

There are maybe some very crude* parallels that could be made between Lula and Blair?

(*emphasis on this phrase, I am of course aware of very significant differences)
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