Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1496903893812396039

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Biden is a failure of a president. Maybe the GOP dictatorship is preferable…

No

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I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

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https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1497138888304857090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497149714520850433?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7...

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https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1497035826139738125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

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Maybe China isn't as supportive of Russia as i thought they were going to be.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/china-restrict-financing-russia-ukraina-invasion

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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497389484362461187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

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Is it possible Putin has fallen into the same "yes man" trap many other strong men leaders have?  As in:
1.strongman wins control
b.strongman gets rid of all dissent
III.strongman is surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear
D.strongman believes them, steps into something bad that should have been obvious

I think it's that along with a good helping of the victory disease where after Putin has succeeded to many times in the past and being surrounded by yes men who tell him what he wants to hear he's begun to really believe he's a genius who's playing 4D chess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_disease#:~:text=Victory%20disease%20occurs%20in%20military,leading%20his%20troops%20to%20disaster.

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Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

So much for Kyiv falling within the 72 hours of the start of the war.

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An interesting take on Ukraine and NATO security from a retired British general.

I hope he's wrong about the Baltic states but unfortunately i could see the logic from the Kremlins pov about a quick strike and take it over and then threaten the west with nukes if they dare to try and take it back. I hope though that the current showing from the Russian army in Ukraine will stop such ideas though.

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What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

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https://twitter.com/vansterhook/status/1499497036743430145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

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https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

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https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

 Was  Discussed and rejected For obvious reasons.

That's for the best then. Rather not test though theory that Putin isn't rational anymore.

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So... here's something I've been thinking about for the past 2-3 days, and not wall of text, which apparently some people find an annoying posting trait on my part.

So early on in the financial reporting it was estimated that Russia was spending $10 Billion / Day in Ukrainian military activities.

I am assuming these would be estimated additional costs beyond regular budgeted Russian military expenses.

We know that the Russian Gvt Financial Reserves are somewhere around $650 Billion.

Many of the Russian Financial assets are held in overseas financial institutions which are currently unavailable to the Russian Gvt.

Despite dramatic shift in Russian financial holdings away from the Dollar, Pound, and Euros and increasing shift towards Gold and currency from other countries, it's pretty clear that Putin's "slush fund" is much lower than $650 Billion.

At what point does the cost of war in Ukraine start to dramatically drain Putin's stash to the point where Russia needs to go deficit financing to borrow money from elsewhere?

Do we have anybody here who can break this down in greater detail and is the math totally off?

Afraid i don't know anywhere near enough about the Russian economy and spending to even begin trying to figure out how much they're spending and how long they can keep it going for but Marco Rubio had this tweet recently.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499986178157731850?cxt=HHwWlICz0eregtEpAA...

So it would appear Russia won't be able to sustain their current level of engagement for very long.

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One dog that didn't bark was the martial law that Putin was supposed to bring in yesterday.

What, if anything, can be deduced from this?

Maybe he's worried that declaring martial law would give proof to the claims that the "special operations" is in fact a war and that things aren't going as well as Putin's been saying.

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Perhaps a bit optimistic on the other hand seeing the amount of trouble that northern convoy is having with it's supplies and the state of the Russian economy and i have seen others (like that Marco Rubio tweet) saying similar enough that i can't help but wonder if he won't be right.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

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Indian media is saying that Ukraine media reports that Denis Kireev who was part of the Ukraine delegation for talks with Russia has been killed in Kyiv by SBU due to suspicion of treason.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500078019192496129?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1500100659072356354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%...

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If this is true than it's absolutely disgusting.

https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1500129586117427201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

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Here's an interesting article with a interview with a Russian anti war protester.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084627201/one-russian-anti-war-protester-on-why-shes-risking-arrest-to-speak-out?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

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Here's a supposed leak from a anonymous FSB analyst on what's been happening that was posted on telegra.ph. The article is in Russian so unless you can read Russian you'll need google translate to read it.

https://telegra.ph/Ocenka-perspektiv-Rossii-analitikom-FSB-03-04?ref=tjournal.ru

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Here's a supposed leak from a anonymous FSB analyst on what's been happening that was posted on telegra.ph. The article is in Russian so unless you can read Russian you'll need google translate to read it.

https://telegra.ph/Ocenka-perspektiv-Rossii-analitikom-FSB-03-04?ref=tjournal.ru

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569?cxt=HHwWgoCzseGx4tE...

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Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

If you have google translate on your computer it should translate the page for ya. Also i have a translated version but it's a long article and I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post the entire text on here.

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https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1500370745964351490?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...