Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1500268807025315842

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500167936203534339

What if Russia is planning this all…

[Torie]

1, This guy has a talent of being able to synthesize well with an economy of words as to the invasion "fallout."

https://prospect.org/blogs/tap/its-an-ill-war-that-blows-no-good/

2. Aside from cutting off Russia from the technology it needs for its military, sanctions need to truncate the tyrant's income stream effectively. Effectively means a fraction that has a relatively high numerator of the decline in income stream as compared to the denominator of economic damage to the West.  The rest is indeed larded with virtue signaling.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Accidentally deleted this but...

Leaked footage of new carbon nanotube technology on Russian vehicles. 100% Javelin proof!

[NOVA Green]

So.... the "International Brigade" are finding their way to Ukraine to fight for the freedom of all "Free Peoples" of Europe.

This happens to be an American dude, US Marine two tours of duty in Iraq grabbed some non-military hardware to take on the airplane.

"American veterans volunteer to fight in Ukraine.

Hector, who lives in Tampa Bay, Fla., is a former United States Marine who served two violent tours in Iraq. On Friday, he boarded a plane for one more deployment, this time as a volunteer in Ukraine.

He checked in several bags filled with rifle scopes, helmets and body armor donated by other veterans. “I can help right now,” said Hector, who asked to be identified only his first name for security reasons.

Hector is part of a surge of American veterans who say they are now preparing to join the fight in Ukraine, emboldened by the invitation of the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who earlier this week announced he was creating an “international legion” and asked volunteers from around the world to help defend his nation against Russia.

David Ribardo, a former Army officer who owns a property management business in Allentown, Pa., is acting as a sort of middle man for a group called Volunteers for Ukraine, identifying veterans and other volunteers with useful skills and connecting them with donors who buy gear and airline tickets.

Fund-raising sites such as GoFundMe have rules against collecting money for armed conflict, so Mr. Ribardo said his group connects those he has vetted with people who want to donate, describing his role as being “a Tinder for veterans and donors.”

Veterans said they are driven by past experiences. Some want to try to recapture the intense clarity and purpose they felt in war, which is often missing in suburban life. Others want a chance to make amends for failed missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and see the fight to defend a democracy against a totalitarian invader as the reason they joined the military.

On Thursday, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, told the Russian News Agency that foreign fighters would not be considered soldiers, but mercenaries, and would not be protected under humanitarian rules regarding the treatment of prisoners of war.

“At best, they can expect to be prosecuted as criminals,” Mr. Konashenkov said.

U.S. officials have been trying to steer Americans toward other methods of support. During a news conference this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said people who want to help Ukraine can do so by supporting nongovernmental organizations that are providing humanitarian assistance and “by being advocates for Ukraine and for peaceful resolution to this crisis that was created by Russia.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/05/world/russia-ukraine/american-veterans-volunteer-to-fight-in-ukraine

[ugabug]

Here's a supposed leak from a anonymous FSB analyst on what's been happening that was posted on telegra.ph. The article is in Russian so unless you can read Russian you'll need google translate to read it.

https://telegra.ph/Ocenka-perspektiv-Rossii-analitikom-FSB-03-04?ref=tjournal.ru

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The betrayal regarding the humanitarian corridors is getting to me emotionally in a way the rest of this hasn't as much so far. It's supervillainish.

[NOVA Green]

Per Washington Post ~ 10 minutes ago... (Honestly it looks like a somewhat minor update from some info they have been tracking for a few days, which I have previously posted links to)

"As war loomed, U.S. armed Ukraine to hit aircraft, tanks and prep for urban combat, shipment list shows

By Karoun Demirjian and Alex Horton 8:16 p.m.

The United States drastically enhanced its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality, according to a declassified accounting of transfers and sales reviewed by The Washington Post.

The list indicates that, as early as December, the Pentagon was equipping Ukrainian fighters with arms and equipment useful for fighting in urban areas, including shotguns and specialized suits to safeguard soldiers handling unexploded ordnance. Over the last week, the Biden administration has increased such shipments, sending Stinger antiaircraft missile systems for the first time and further augmenting Kyiv’s supply of antitank Javelin missiles and other ammunition.

Taken together, the variety, volume and potency of firepower being rushed into the war zone illustrate the extent to which the United States sought to prepare the Ukrainian military to wage a hybrid war against Russia, even as President Biden has expressly ruled out inserting American troops into the conflict.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-H34YOICJW5DLBOTPDAECQ55EMY

[ugabug]

Here's a supposed leak from a anonymous FSB analyst on what's been happening that was posted on telegra.ph. The article is in Russian so unless you can read Russian you'll need google translate to read it.

https://telegra.ph/Ocenka-perspektiv-Rossii-analitikom-FSB-03-04?ref=tjournal.ru

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569?cxt=HHwWgoCzseGx4tE...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1499946090644353026?s=21
Maybe, about those jets?

There was this today, which strongly implies the jets haven't been sent in any significant numbers (if at all):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1500174453115953157
A number of Senators have started publicly calling for it to happen, which is good news for the UkrAF if it can hold out long enough for support to build in the right places. Not sure why Zelensky isn't also demanding more long-range SAMs; perhaps the price tag makes that a less achievable goal.

Possibilities:
1. The attempt to send the jets is insincere, and Zelenesky’s words are at face value.
2. The attempt to send the jets is sincere, but takes time, and Zelenesky’s words are at face value because he’s desperate.
3. The attempt to send the jets is sincere, and further along than anyone thinks, and Zelenesky’s words are there to serve as a smokescreen for NATO by making it look like NATO hasn’t done anything and pulling the Russians into a false sense of security.

Take your pick, or come up with your own. International Relations Are Fun™️!

[GoTfan]

If I may just share some of my limited knowledge on why the VDV forces are struggling.

VDV are paratroopers. They're practically deified in Russia. You need to be a certain height so you can be physically intimidating. Think of the grenadiers in various 18th and 19th Century armies.

The problem is that paratroopers are, and always have been, light troops trained for rapid assaults. They have been used in recent years by most armies as conventional light infantry. Fine for counterinsurgencies, but the problem they have in modern conventional war is that they lack the heavy armour needed for prolonged fighting. Sure, their training and equipment might be of a higher standard, but there is a hard limit on how much they can bring with them.

Trying an opposed drop on the first night of the invasion was just insanity. Even moreso when they were confronted by the more heavily armed National Guard. That is why they've been struggling badly: they are light assault troops. Paratroopers, as Market Garden should've taught the Russians, don't last long without traditional ground forces.

Not a military analyst, but seriously, paratroopers are rapid assault troops who have this mythos built around them, particularly in Russia. Bring serious firepower against them, and they can't do much about it, unless they have some serious air support.

[WMS]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

[lfromnj]

The issue is that we have to send jets to Eastern Europe to get them to send their soviet leftovers to Ukraine. Ukraine can't afford to train for American jets rn.

[It’s so Joever]

The betrayal regarding the humanitarian corridors is getting to me emotionally in a way the rest of this hasn't as much so far. It's supervillainish.

Eh it seems standard for the Russian playbook.

[ugabug]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

If you have google translate on your computer it should translate the page for ya. Also i have a translated version but it's a long article and I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post the entire text on here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

An English translation that someone made: https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

[Red Velvet]

Another development of this war: US will be meeting with the Maduro Venezuelan government for first time since crisis started, with the goal of pushing them away from Russia and preventing new Cuban missile crisis.

Basically, Guaidó is now unemployed lol

I wonder how this recognition of Maduro as the real leader of Venezuela will hurt Democrats electorally domestically, especially in places like Florida. Tbh, they should have given up on that devilish state a long ago and invested in more friendly ones where they have better chances of stealing. Even Texas >> Florida.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

You can use Google translate here to convert any Russian website to English with surprisingly great accuracy.

This is the part I found most personally interesting,

Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing. Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our power there will be killed in 10 minutes, as we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist. we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist. we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.

This proves just how isolated the Russian's truly are; even Pro-Russian elements in Ukraine like the Opposition Platform party and Ukrainian Oligarch's are largely opposed to this invasion or completely unable to obtain support from anyone. This invasion was hugely mismanaged, and it even says (claiming to be from an FSB analyst) earlier that some believe internal conspiracy theories within the FSB that some factions are sympathetic to the Ukrainians and leaked plans before the invasion. Unless Putin is willing to go nuclear, which is an increasingly dark but possible option, it's clear that most Russians, including the FSB and military higher-ups, are simply confused about why they are in Ukraine in the first place. Putin jumped the shark.

That's my take any way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

If you have google translate on your computer it should translate the page for ya. Also i have a translated version but it's a long article and I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post the entire text on here.

You can also go the Russian website itself and simply left-click "Translate to English".

[WMS]

Thanks to those who provided ways to translate.

I recognize a fellow pissed-off analyst when I see one.

Edit: So yes, I think this is factual. And it’s a pretty bleak outlook for Russia.

[emailking]

In the tweet thread he said 2 former or current FSB contacts thought the letter is genuine but don't agree with the conclusions. So it's just 1 guy's opinion.

[brucejoel99]

In the tweet thread he said 2 former or current FSB contacts thought the letter is genuine but don't agree with the conclusions. So it's just 1 guy's opinion.

*all of the (but, of course, we're not privy to which conclusions they do & don't agree with)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wall Street can still trade Russian oil.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/treasury-department-assures-wall-street-it-can-still-trade-russian-oil.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President reaching out to Russian-Occupied Ukraine in Donbas, where basically Russia tried to "grab ground" years back... per CNN

DAMN!!!

"Zelensky tells people of Donbas to fight for their rights

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the people of the breakaway regions in Donbas in his Saturday video address posted to Facebook.

He called on the people of Donbas to fight for their rights and freedom and urged them to protect themselves from Russia.

"To everyone who can hear us, whose memory hasn't been erased by propaganda, whose eyes weren't shut by fear, whose soul wasn't disfigured by cynicism — Fight!" he said. "Fight for your rights! For your freedom, for Ukraine! Together with Kherson, together with Berdyansk, together with Kyiv and all the rest of Ukrainian cities that value life and are not afraid of anything."
Zelensky addressed Donbas’ skepticism of Ukraine, saying, “I know that many of you believed that Ukraine allegedly hates you. Will allegedly attack you. Will allegedly destroy you. Liars on Russian TV talk about it every day. Liars. It's their job to lie to you every day. But this should not be your destiny.”

Days prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the leader of the pro-Moscow Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, Denis Pushilin, ordered a general mobilization, claiming Ukraine was planning an offensive against the region.

The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserts the two separatist-controlled regions in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, known as the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), are in effect Russian-occupied, where unmarked Russian forces have been propping up separatist fighters since 2014.

Zelensky pointed to the scale of attacks Russian forces have carried out on Ukrainian cities.

“You were told that we are destroying cities. Look at Kharkiv. At Chernihiv …They were killing us. They were killing children,” Zelensky said.
“It did it right in front of your eyes. Protect yourself! Otherwise, it will take your life, too. Your houses.”
He said Ukraine does not shoot its people or attack residential buildings, adding Donbas “has always been and will be our people. Our citizens.”

"