Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

US Conducts B-52 Bombing Training Exercises with Germany and Romania per CNN today:

"The US flew B-52 bombers over NATO's eastern flank on Friday

From CNN's From Oren Liebermann

The United States flew B-52 Stratofortress bombers over NATO’s eastern flank on Friday, exercising with the German and Romanian militaries in a sign of unity as the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second weekend.

The largest strategic bombers in the US Air Force took off from RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force station in England, and conducted close air support and integration mission training, according to a statement from US Air Forces in Europe.

The B-52s then flew to Romania, where they conducted more close air support training as part of the bomber task force (BTF) missions.

The flight over Romanian airspace put the bombers right on the edge of NATO countries, adjacent to Ukrainian air space, where the Russian air force is trying to establish air supremacy.

“BTF rotations give us a critical opportunity to integrate and train with our allies and partners, especially during this difficult time,” said Gen. Jeff Harrigian, commander of United States Air Forces in Europe, Air Forces Africa, and NATO’s Allied Air Command.

“Training together ensures the defensive power of NATO remains unmatched,” he said.

"


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/index.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brazil: Boris Johnson called Bolsonaro to discuss Russian Invasion of Ukraine per CNN:

"British PM Boris Johnson called Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro over war in Ukraine

From CNN's Camilo Rocha in São Paulo and Jaide Garcia

"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Thursday to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to CNN affiliate CNN Brasil.

The British leader reminded Bolsonaro that Brazil was a “vital” ally during the second World War, and that Bolsonaro’s voice was “crucial” in this moment of crisis, CNN Brasil reported.

A spokesperson for Johnson said both leaders agreed on "demanding an urgent ceasefire" and agreed that "peace must prevail."

According to a statement from Johnson's spokesperson, the prime minister added that "innocent civilians are being killed and cities destroyed, and the world cannot allow President Putin’s aggression to be successful.”

CNN reached out to Brazil's government for comment and has not received a response.

Some context: Bolsonaro has so far avoided condemning or sanctioning Russia, saying Brazil was taking a "neutral" stance.

He argued sanctions would impact the Brazilian economy as well, pointing out that the country's agriculture depended on Russian fertilizers.

During a weekly livestream on social media Thursday, Bolsonaro said, “Brazil remains in a balanced position and we don’t have the capacity to solve this issue."

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/index.html

Brazilian neutrality really shows here. It took a very generalized statement covering neutral concepts for BoJo's spokesman to be able to say they fully agreed.

[NOVA Green]

Russian Crude taking a hit as Hawaii receives other fuels to provide Gas from American Refineries:





"Par Pacific Holdings suspends all purchases of Russian crude oil for Hawaii refinery

From CNN’s Paradise Afshar

Par Pacific Holdings, headquartered in Houston, Texas, announced Thursday that they’ve suspended all purchases of Russian crude oil for their Hawaii refinery.

“We intentionally diversify our crude oil sources from locations around the globe to enable us to meet the state's ongoing demand for fuels,” Par Pacific Holdings said in a statement. “However, in light of recent geopolitical events, we have decided to suspend purchases of Russian crude oil for our Hawaii refinery.”
To meet its fuel production needs Par Pacific Holdings is planning to use “other grades of crude, principally from North and South America.”

“As the geopolitical situation evolves, we will work closely with our customers and partners in state government to make prudent decisions in support of energy assurance for Hawaii,” the statement said.

Par Pacific Holdings is the parent company of Par Hawaii and Par Hawaii Refining, which operates Hawaii’s only petroleum refinery in Kapolei, according to its website.

“For approximately 20-25% of our crude needs, we have historically purchased a Russian grade called Sokol which is produced relatively close to Hawaii, around the Sakhalin Island, north of Japan,” Eric Wright, the president of Par Hawaii, said in a statement.

Wright said the decision to suspend Russian crude purchases is not expected to have “significant impacts” on operations in the Kapolei.

“Fuel prices are driven primarily by global oil markets,” Wright said. “We do not expect our decision to have a meaningful impact on the prices paid by Hawaii consumers.”

The average price of regular gas in Hawaii is $4.66, according to AAA, and the national average is $3.83.   "



https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/h_6cd4d2d0b899c4eb5cb9a9e3552c5087

[AndyHogan14]

God I hope this is true: I am seeing some people claiming that the Zaporizhia plant is back in Ukrainian hands (per the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs).

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1499975986452082689?s=20&t=BpOOjuqhbr...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

[AndyHogan14]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

I'm thinking more for the well being of everyone around the plant (and the wider world) that nuclear facilities should be in the hands of the Ukrainians as opposed to the inept and malicious Russian troops.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

I'm thinking more for the well being of everyone around the plant (and the wider world) that nuclear facilities should be in the hands of the Ukrainians as opposed to the inept and malicious Russian troops.

Oh, that's (likely) true.
It might be the best of all possible scenarios anyway, for both Ukraine and Russia as well as everyone else. Ukraine not wanting to use the power means the Russians have no real military reason to target the plant, and the Russians don't have to try to take it. And the wider world doesn't have to worry about bad things happening there. Of course it also sucks for Ukraine that a significant chunk of their power network is unavailable.
The Russians already got everything they needed in regards to Zaporizhzia anyway. Increase fears of nuclear accidents, and reduce Ukrainian power supply. Both big ticket items.
Fortunately for Ukraine, the rest of the war isn't going quite as good for Russia as this is.

[dead0man]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

I have enjoyed your work in here for whatever that's worth.

[OSR stands with Israel]

With how terrible the Soviet/Russian Army has performed in combat operations (Afghanistan, Chechnya 1994, Georgia 2008, and the current situation). I wonder if the Soviet threat of overrunning Western Europe from East Germany during the cold war was overblown.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499887787352502273?s=20&t=lNrSXpx...

The USSR was far bigger than Russia and had far far more client states as well so Russia today really isnt comparable in strength to the former USSR. A huge reason for that assement is due to the fact the Soviets moved much faster against Germany from June 1944 then the Western Allies did even though they basically launched Overload/Bagration at the same time.


Also keep in mind that throughout the cold war the Warsaw pact always had far bigger numbers than NATO did and the technological gap between NATO/Warsaw pact wasnt that big in favor of NATO Until the 1980s which is when Id say the advantage in a conventional war moved in favor of NATO. What happened in the 1980s was the US basically rebuilt our military with cutting edge technology especially in regarding our air force.

All the new tactics, technology, and equipment the US used during the Gulf War was basically the military the US had revamped during the 1980s to beat the USSR in a conventional war and its why we won that war so quickly. I doubt we win the Gulf War anywhere near as quickly as we did if we were using 1960s tactics/technology and that I say was the real game changer in swinging the advantage to us.


 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tonight's episode of the game show "Jeopardy!" featured this clue in the category "Bordering Russia":

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1499902789798952962

The caption with the recording date appeared on the screen along with the clue.  The show, which is taped well in advance, has been oddly prescient lately; an episode earlier this week featured the category "Modern War".

[NOVA Green]

So now for a bit of slight levity during dark times....

Why are Ukrainians swearing so much these days?  Courtesy of the lifestyle section of the Washington Post:

"Ukraine is fighting back, one swear word at a time

Ukrainians are fighting back against invading Russian forces with everything they have: Guns, homemade molotov cocktails, technological know-how — and words.

“Russian warship, go f--- yourself," Ukrainian border guards reportedly told a Russian vessel approaching a Ukrainian island off the country’s southern coast last week. In a video clip viewed millions of times, a Ukrainian member of Parliament answered a question about Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with “F--- you, Lavrov." There have also been reports of Ukrainians telling Russian soldiers, “I will tear you apart with my teeth” and that they’ll become impotent if their tanks roll any farther.

This war of words isn’t all crude. It’s clever, too. Ukrainian officials encouraged residents to remove or change road signs to confuse and taunt Russian troops.

The first thing Ukrainians and historians of the Slavic world point out about this battle of Babel is that most of the fiery insults being heaved — and captured on social media for the world to see — are in Russian.

The anti-Russian profanity has made its way to the United States. Milwaukee’s Lakefront Brewery is selling 32-ounce crowlers with a label featuring a drawing of the Russian president with a label calling Putin a male body part.

When CNN’s Anderson Cooper asked a Ukrainian man in a makeshift factory assembling camouflage materials and homemade weapons whether he had a message for Russia’s president, a voice-over from Cooper interpreted the man’s response as “I would tell him: He can go f--- himself.”

But some of the nuance of what Ukrainians are saying isn’t being fully captured by the foreign media. For example, Emily Channell-Justice, director of a Ukrainian research institute at Harvard University, says a more accurate translation of the retort hurled at the Russian vessel by Ukrainian soldiers would be: “Russian warship, go sit on a d---.”

....

It’s not that Ukrainians are a particularly foul-mouthed people. They’re just incredibly outraged at the Russian invasion of their country.

...

In other words: If your nation were suddenly attacked, unprovoked, you would be swearing, too.

Pozen says she was struck by a YouTube video showing the bombed-out center of Izyum, a city about two hours’ drive south of Kharkiv. The man opened the recording by declaring: “Here is the f---ing Russian peace,” according to Pozen, who used to work on language technologies at Apple. Showing the detritus of a school and a park, the man punctuates his description with profane interjections. This week, Pozen’s hometown of Zhytomyr was bombed.

Ironically, a Russian phrase pops into Pozen’s head to describe the chaos of this moment. “Nyet slov, odni emotsii,” which she translates as “no words, only emotions.”

....

Although there is a law aiming to cement Ukrainian as the country’s dominant tongue, Garner says that the reality is more linguistically fluid, with people commonly switching between Russian and Ukrainian similar to how Canadians might toggle between English and French in Montreal.

....

Strong language has always been a feature of wartime, Musgrave says. We just haven’t always had the technology to capture and disseminate the drama so quickly and widely. Sharing these atrocities on social media is “part of how Ukraine is fighting this war for the hearts and soul of the world,” Musgrave says. And sometimes the profanity is slipping through.

After this conflict, Musgrave predicts Ukrainians will add a new swear word to their vocabulary: “Putin.”

"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/03/04/ukraine-russian-warship-swear/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

I have enjoyed your work in here for whatever that's worth.

Same here.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499829944418975745?s=20&t=bcO-raBa...

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/carlaacarlson/status/1499891575719137285

[emailking]

There's a ceasefire in Mariupol.

[Adam Griffin]

So... here's something I've been thinking about for the past 2-3 days, and not wall of text, which apparently some people find an annoying posting trait on my part.

So early on in the financial reporting it was estimated that Russia was spending $10 Billion / Day in Ukrainian military activities.

I am assuming these would be estimated additional costs beyond regular budgeted Russian military expenses.

We know that the Russian Gvt Financial Reserves are somewhere around $650 Billion.

Many of the Russian Financial assets are held in overseas financial institutions which are currently unavailable to the Russian Gvt.

Despite dramatic shift in Russian financial holdings away from the Dollar, Pound, and Euros and increasing shift towards Gold and currency from other countries, it's pretty clear that Putin's "slush fund" is much lower than $650 Billion.

At what point does the cost of war in Ukraine start to dramatically drain Putin's stash to the point where Russia needs to go deficit financing to borrow money from elsewhere?

Do we have anybody here who can break this down in greater detail and is the math totally off?

I saw a tweet somewhere to this effect (though the number was 20 billion), but from a bit of deducing, I determined those figures were initially quoted in RUB (which based on the aforementioned figure, broke down to ~$250m per day).

As an example, at the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars (which had comparable deployed manpower), the US was "only" spending a combined $15 billion - per month. That worked out to $500m per day for us when fighting two major conflicts simultaneously, so it's in line with the $200-300m/day estimate for Russia. I can't see any fathomable way Russia is actually spending billions per day on their military operations. Maybe if you factor in the real effects of sanctions you could come close to such a number, but not on the "special operation" itself.

[ugabug]

So... here's something I've been thinking about for the past 2-3 days, and not wall of text, which apparently some people find an annoying posting trait on my part.

So early on in the financial reporting it was estimated that Russia was spending $10 Billion / Day in Ukrainian military activities.

I am assuming these would be estimated additional costs beyond regular budgeted Russian military expenses.

We know that the Russian Gvt Financial Reserves are somewhere around $650 Billion.

Many of the Russian Financial assets are held in overseas financial institutions which are currently unavailable to the Russian Gvt.

Despite dramatic shift in Russian financial holdings away from the Dollar, Pound, and Euros and increasing shift towards Gold and currency from other countries, it's pretty clear that Putin's "slush fund" is much lower than $650 Billion.

At what point does the cost of war in Ukraine start to dramatically drain Putin's stash to the point where Russia needs to go deficit financing to borrow money from elsewhere?

Do we have anybody here who can break this down in greater detail and is the math totally off?

Afraid i don't know anywhere near enough about the Russian economy and spending to even begin trying to figure out how much they're spending and how long they can keep it going for but Marco Rubio had this tweet recently.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499986178157731850?cxt=HHwWlICz0eregtEpAA...

So it would appear Russia won't be able to sustain their current level of engagement for very long.

[CumbrianLefty]

One dog that didn't bark was the martial law that Putin was supposed to bring in yesterday.

What, if anything, can be deduced from this?

[Middle-aged Europe]

One dog that didn't bark was the martial law that Putin was supposed to bring in yesterday.

What, if anything, can be deduced from this?

Well, there's also the cease-fire in Mariupol and Volnovakha now, with the Russian offensive continuing to be stalled. I'd say there could be disagreements within the Kremlin, or let's rather say Russian policy is dictated by whatever people in his inner circle can make Putin concede at this point. Which wouldn't be too surprising all things considered. But Kremlinology is a very difficult science.

[ugabug]

One dog that didn't bark was the martial law that Putin was supposed to bring in yesterday.

What, if anything, can be deduced from this?

Maybe he's worried that declaring martial law would give proof to the claims that the "special operations" is in fact a war and that things aren't going as well as Putin's been saying.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500000875095408640

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The German Strela “surface-to-air missiles” are just Strela-2 MANPADS, though the journalism was sloppy enough that this wasn’t clear without a fair bit of digging. Ukraine also operates Strela-3 MANPADS and Strela-1/Strea-10 short-range SAM vehicles, all of which have a bit more range.

Journalists should probably stop referring to MANPADS as SAMs with no clarification that they are MANPADS, or at least specify that they are short-range that won’t hit most jets.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia have passed legislation that includes jail terms of up to 15 year jail sentences for people who spread misinformation on the internet.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-war-russian-president-vladimir-putin-signs-law-introducing-15-year-jail-term-for-fake-news-on-army-2804654

Imagine if that was implemented on this forum.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia have passed legislation that includes jail terms of up to 15 year jail sentences for people who spread "misinformation" on the internet.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-war-russian-president-vladimir-putin-signs-law-introducing-15-year-jail-term-for-fake-news-on-army-2804654

Imagine if that was implemented on this forum.

Corrected that a bit.

[ugabug]

Perhaps a bit optimistic on the other hand seeing the amount of trouble that northern convoy is having with it's supplies and the state of the Russian economy and i have seen others (like that Marco Rubio tweet) saying similar enough that i can't help but wonder if he won't be right.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...