2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[lfromnj]

So the most recent Arizona map seems like a pretty solid 7-2.

I'm shocked, I tell you.

It has 4 Biden seats and the 5th one should be a Biden seat as well once they adjust the deviation.

538 of course is being idiotic.

This is a 7-2 Republican map in 2022.  Dems likely are not winning an Biden + 6 district (Stanton’s AZ-04) in 2022.

By no means is it solid. The Dem was the one who proposed unpacking Stantons seat by adding in West Mesa and removing Phoenix. Most of the skirmishing seems to be in outstate.

[lfromnj]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1469436378660458502

538 makes it look like a super GOP gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1469436378660458502

538 makes it look like a super GOP gerrymander.

Is there a DRA link for this? Just as they always do, Democrats are just whining about how everything is supposedly so unfair and rigged against them. But I bet at least four, maybe even five, districts voted to the left of the state.

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1469432460333117446

4 Biden with a Trump +0 district.

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1469440105764909056

Adjusting the population will make it a Biden district.

[lfromnj]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1469436378660458502

538 makes it look like a super GOP gerrymander.

Yeah 538 PVIs for Arizona are misleading because Biden outperformed many by 5-10% in 2020 meaning even a seat 538 calls “lean R” could have been a narrow Biden seat.

Map 8.1 seems 5-4 Trump  with 1 being marginal for Biden and 6 narrowly going for Trump.

In 8.2 is also 5-4 Trump with Biden winning 8 and 4 relatively easily but Trump holding 6 and 1

8.3 seems 5-4 Biden with Biden winning 4, 6, and 1, and all 3 including 1 voting to the left of the state in 2020. Even AZ-8 was prolly reasonably close and Kelly may have come very close to winning it.

8.4 is simillar to 8.3 except 1 seems like it was extremely close, 8 is shored up, but 10 gets closer.

Important to remember that again 2020 Pres is not represented well by 538 PVI, and also the current map is kinda a slight Dem Gerry. I do appreciate though how they largely kept 8 and 5 in the Phoenix. metro and didn’t stretch them into exurbs or rurals.

Overall these maps are fairer than people give them credit for.

The current map is sorta a dem gerry, but not by the end. AZ01 is really gerrymandered to be almost as D friendly as possible but AZ09 was similar in 2012 to be quite D friendly but by now it is almost a D pack compared to AZ06  and AZ08. AZ02 was drawn relatively D friendly but it still probably would have been at least a Biden district by 2020.

[lfromnj]

2010 Commission handshake emoji 2020 Commission

Inadvertently creating maps that are essentially partisan gerrymanders.

This map is legitimately basically two Dem packs. It looks very similar to actual gerrymanders for Republicans that I've drawn in DRA.

Ducey definitely tried to push it but Neuberg seems to be trying for consensus. Maricopa is pretty fine, Rs did seem like they are getting a small win in Tucson but the North district was definetely gerrymandered previously.

An actual R gerrymander would just further pack Stanton into a Safe seat.  Instead they unpacked him. IIRC the dem original plan was to unpack him to around Biden +10 but Rs managed to get a few points more by trading with Biggs who is still pretty safe.

However the 2010 map was quite clearly an intentional in its goals.






Proof of intent is here in the legislative map population deviation when created in 2010. Pretty clearly overpopulates R districts and underpopulates Dem districts.


Basically the infighting between the Dems and the Rs is pretty damn clear political but Neuberg has attempted to side with both sides depending on the district.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?




Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

538 PVI seems to assume AZ is an R + 8 state or so rather than a true tossup. 6R - 3D on average in an R + 8 state seems p fair. I think the bigger argument would be that in 2016 Pres when AZ was close it was 7R - 2D which definately isn’t fair.

Do you have info on how 538 calculates the PVI? I assumed it was an average of 2016 and 2020, but that would be around R+5. Maybe they include local races (which is pretty dumb if so since there's no way to normalize that to a national baseline, but whatever). Either way, it's pretty transparent that this is a gerrymander.

Iirc 25% comes from state legislative

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1469419622457913351

[lfromnj]

That new AZ-01/02 is hideous--why does that district have to go into Pinal?

Tiebreaker voted with the Dems to prevent Mohave from being with the northern district as part of a compromise.

[lfromnj]

Why do they keep switching every other day between the D and R map.

[lfromnj]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

[lfromnj]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

Well they are using a composite so that's why it would be more D as the one in 12.1 is like R+4 according to the composite.

[lfromnj]

Yup the vote spread includes  2018 governor.

[lfromnj]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

[lfromnj]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.

IIRC they went for 50.1% CVAP, so the last option would just be more Yuma/Phoenix which wouldn't help AZ02. One could also sue this as a racial gerrymander but that would likely just hurt Democrats mostly while maybe helping them a bit in Maricopa with AZ08 IMO. If Elias wins his lawsuit, it would be just like the NC 2016 lawsuit