2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[lfromnj]

Why do they keep switching every other day between the D and R map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro that map sucks. If 6 is gonna become swingy then making a swingy 8th is only fair

[lfromnj]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

[ProgressiveModerate]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

[lfromnj]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

Well they are using a composite so that's why it would be more D as the one in 12.1 is like R+4 according to the composite.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

Well they are using a composite so that's why it would be more D as the one in 12.1 is like R+4 according to the composite.

Yeah having it go to Biden only seems fair, especially since AZ-01 is already narrow as is. Ngl, I was kinda hoping 8 would become more competitive, but at that point one could argue the AZ map favors Dems

[lfromnj]

Yup the vote spread includes  2018 governor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems on the commission are really salty about the map today

[Gass3268]

They switched back again.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473515899139366915?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

They switched back again.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473515899139366915?s=20

Are they actually going to finish the maps or just switch between two starting point drafts every day until the end of time?

[Roll Roons]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

[BoiseBoy]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

What's the map look like?

[Roll Roons]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

What's the map look like?

My guess is it'll be very similar to the Dem starting point. Though maybe AZ-06's arm into Pinal is cleaned up a bit.

[swf541]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

This sounds pretty fair to me

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

This sounds pretty fair to me

IMO there should be a lean R seat, but otherwise it’s a decent map

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473702345548742656?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473702347889164301?s=20

[Nyvin]

DRA of 13.9 -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7f22ee2b-7a0e-47bb-a293-427ea033a719

[BoiseBoy]

Is that ugly split of Cochise because of the Hispanic population there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 6th is cleaner than it was previously.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Since Yee is polling so poorly in Gov. race, I wonder if she drops down to AZ-01 and tries to primary scandal-ridden Schweikert

[Frodo]

Republicans poised to gain congressional seats in Arizona after redistricting panel approves new map

Arizona's representation in the U.S. House of Representatives is likely to shift to a Republican majority after the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission unanimously approved a transformative, GOP-leaning congressional map Wednesday morning.

Arizona's current congressional delegation is made up of five Democrats and four Republicans. The new map, should it withstand legal challenges, favors Republicans in five — and possibly six — of the state's nine districts.

Yet the five-member commission approved the map with a 5-0 vote, which Republican commissioner Douglas York attributed to the effort of independent chair Erika Neuberg, who called the map a "sweet spot for all sides to be well-positioned."

She acknowledged that "each side is deeply disappointed by aspects of this map."

[Tekken_Guy]

Since Yee is polling so poorly in Gov. race, I wonder if she drops down to AZ-01 and tries to primary scandal-ridden Schweikert

There’s already a credible candidate in that race with Elijah Norton. Yee I think might run against Sinema in 2024.

[BoiseBoy]

Arizona has also passed their legislative map 16.1:



It has 15 Biden seats and 15 Trump seats.

[Nyvin]

They don't have Leg. map 16.1, but here's 16.0 on DRA -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c598e73-8767-4395-86a7-42586f3aa34e

It looks like there's more long term upside for Dems here than GOP.   There's only 8 R seats outside of the Phoenix and Tucson metros, and seems like the R's have to depend on winning more of the marginal seats than D's do.  

Both chambers have two year terms so the next good year for Democrats should see them winning a majority in either or both chambers.

Was there any major changes between 16.0 and 16.1?

[xavier110]

I think these are fair maps. And they obviously have more upside for the Dems looking at them outside of 2022 blinders.