Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Mexican Wolf]

Minas Gerais just flipped from a narrow Bolsonaro lead to an equally narrow Lula lead on The Guardian.

[jaichind]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

Brazil decided to copy New York and Alaska with slow reporting lol

I think it is because of high turnout and lines in the voting stations when the polls closed

[jaichind]

Gomes is underperforming pre-election polls.  This could be a last-minute Gomes->Lula tactical voting or as more Left-friendly areas come in his vote share will rise.

[Duke of York]

Gomes is underperforming pre-election polls.  This could be a last-minute Gomes->Lula tactical voting or as more Left-friendly areas come in his vote share will rise.

I hope so and Lula wins outright.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576684928368271360

"fwiw, I think TSE (Brazil's electoral body) made an huge mistake by uniformizing the voting time. Bolsonaro will be ahead by around 2-3 hours and then Lula will flip with votes coming in from the Northeast. Gives too much legitimacy to Bolsonaro's fraud bullsh**t"

[BigSerg]

Bolsonaro was supposed to lose the first round by double digits and currently he's up by just over 4 percent. Sure that won't hold but I am 99% sure there will be a runoff.

[Logical]

Another interesting thing, the rate of invalid/blank votes has gone down significantly.
2018 : 8.79%
2022 : 4.04%
Clear evidence of polarization in the electorate.

[Mike88]

Just 20.7% reporting from the Nordeste.

[Adam Griffin]

33.18% reporting
47.45% - 17,799,016 - Bolsonaro (+3.70)
43.75% - 16,410,488 - Lula

Definitely speeding up: an estimated 7% of the precincts/vote have come in over the past 9 minutes.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 47.35% with 35% vote counted.  At this rate, he will not fall to 44% by 50% of the vote counted which is needed by my estimate for Lula to get to 50%

[SnowLabrador]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

[Pivaru]

Bolsonaro's former minister of women, family and human rights, Damares Alves has won the senate election in Distrito Federal, defeating Flavia Arruda (who was also a bolsonarista, jsut for the record). His former minister of agriculture, Tereza Cristina has also won a senate seat, in Mato Grosso do Sul, defeating Bolsonaro's former health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who broke with Bolsonaro during the pandemic.

These are Bolsonaro's first victories in the night.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

35.51% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 19,045,006 (47.34%)
LULA- 17,644,043 (43.86%)

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

Is there any f@cking election where you won't doom?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

You are utterly insufferable.

[Socani]

Using Election Twitter's terms, I would categorize this election as: Leans Run-off.

[Duke of York]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

Why must you always doom?

[jaichind]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

As much as I want Bolsonaro to win he will not.

[Duke of York]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

As much as I want Bolsonaro to win he will not.

what makes you say that?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

You are utterly insufferable.

There are three certainties in life- death, taxes and SnowLabrador being an insufferable doomer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

States with over 60% of votes counted:

Distrito Federal (92%): Lula +6.79 from Haddad 2R
Espirito Santo (89%): Lula +3.27
Mato Grosso do Sul (84%): Lula +3.09
Tocantins (76%): Lula -1.79
Paraná (65%): Lula +3.56

So if these results hold we are looking for Lula around 48% or so nationwide.

[win win]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

[HidingCommentary]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

No?

[Duke of York]

States with over 60% of votes counted:

Distrito Federal (92%): Lula +6.79 from Haddad 2R
Espirito Santo (89%): Lula +3.27
Mato Grosso do Sul (84%): Lula +3.09
Tocantins (76%): Lula -1.79
Paraná (65%): Lula +3.56

So if these results hold we are looking for Lula around 48% or so nationwide.

so a runoff is likely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh great. Who told SL about this thread?

[Adam Griffin]

Since my last update (33.18% reporting), 3.48% of the then-remaining precincts have came in - while Bolsonaro's winning margin declined by 5.95% of its previous total.

If even this trend continues - ignoring more favorable Lula areas remaining outstanding - Lula will be in the lead by 2-3 points minimum in the end. Bolsonaro may overperform polling expectations, but it's not difficult to see Lula getting 47-48%+ in the end.