Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

3 new polls tonight:

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 31% (138)
PP 21% (88)
Cs 15% (48)
UP 12% (29)
Vox 10% (17)

ERC 13
PNV 6
JxCat 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
CC 1
Compromis 1

Right wing bloc: 46% (155 including N+)
Left wing bloc: 43% (167)
PSOE+Cs: 46% (186)

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 30% (130)
PP 21% (86)
Cs 15% (49)
UP 12% (31)
Vox 11% (22)

ERC 14
JxCat 5
(other nationalists unespecified)

Right wing bloc: 46% (157)
Left wing bloc: 42% (161)
PSOE+Cs: 44% (179)

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE 27% (110)
PP 24% (100)
Cs 16% (56)
UP 12% (30)
Vox 9% (21)

ERC 12
PNV 6
JxCat 5
Compromís 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
En Marea 2
CC 1

Right wing bloc: 50% (178 including NS+)
Left wing bloc: 39% (140)
PSOE+Cs: 43% (166)

NC Report is the only one still giving the right a majority, though still all give the right very healthy leads in the popular vote. Of course because of vote splitting and the fact that no nationalist parties will make deals with PP-Cs-Vox, they don't just need to win, they need to win a landslide to get an overall majority, which seems hard.

2 of the 3 polls give a hypothetical PSOE+Cs government a majority. While ruled out by Cs, I think it's a very likely possibility. Even if they fall short by a handful of seats, I wouldn't completely rule out a PNV abstention or support by CC or N+

Finally, a PSOE+UP+nationalist government is possible in 2 polls as well, but I wouldn't trust that government to happen unless Sánchez gives Catalonia a referendum (not happening) or they win big enough that PNV support would be enough on its own. Maaaybe ERC could abstain, but I wouldn't trust that at all.

If the right doesn't get a majority, and neither Cs nor the Catalans give up, then we will see repeat elections.

[Former President tack50]

Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?

No. EH Bildu voted the no confidence motion against Rajoy, but later rejected any type of cooperation with the PSOE government. The Bildu folks are at the very least as radically pro-independence as the Puigdemont supporters. Anyway the correlation of forces makes EH Bildu much less relevant than the PNV and the Catalan nationalists.

Actually, I do believe EH Bildu would be more likely to support a Sánchez government than the Catalans (especially than JxCat, who seems very radicalized and almost as gone as CUP. You know things are bad when ERC, the tradicinally hardcore independence party are now the moderates).

While Bildu is just as radically-pro independence as the Catalans, their rethoric is a lot more concilliatory. In a way, they remind me of ERC circa 2004; which did support Zapatero's first government. They clearly want to be decisive in Sánchez's government judging from some of Otegui's remarks.

The main issue in my opinion with Bildu is not the fact that they are pro-independence, but instead their very clear ties to ETA.

The image of PSOE being propped up by the same guys who 10 years ago cheered whenever a Socialist councillor was murdered by ETA would be a very hard one to swallow, even more so than doing deals with the Catalans.

Why is the right losing support?

I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

A good example of how this election might turn out could be a "reverse 1996". In 1996 the left (PSOE+IU) very clearly beat the right (PP) 48-39. However because of vote splitting, PSOE+IU didn't have a majority and Aznar was able to get in government propped up by nationalists.

[Former President tack50]

Why is the right losing support?

I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

How does vote splitting affect the result? Is it because there are three competitive parties on the right and only two on the left?

Yes, pretty much. Plus the fact that PSOE is ahead and the fact that UP seems to be holding around 13% so it gets penalized less than Vox (but more than Cs). Of course there's also a chance that polls are wrong and Vox gets less penalized than we expect.

It seems that for the most part it will be small provinces with a handful of seats that will decide the results. And in those provinces very small even swings can have dramatic effects. Here's an article explaining it, with a diagram:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/02/actualidad/1551556252_287887.html



This is an estimate of how many seats in small provinces (between 1 and 5 seats; which count up to 99 seats in total) each party would get depending on their national vote.

As you can see, small increases or decreases in the popular vote nationally mean very large swings.

[Former President tack50]

Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?

Honestly, if we have to take the CIS poll at large with a bit of caution, the province/regional crosstabs should be taken with a ton of caution. Valencia is not the worst offender, IMO Barcelona would be (no way Vox is that high in Barcelona, even with an abysmal PP candidate)

If we are trying to analyze Vox's impact in Valencia, I would instead look at polls for the regional election which takes place the same day. Last poll (from late March) seems to point out this:

PSOE: 29%
PP: 22%
Cs: 15%
Compromís: 14%
Vox: 7%
UP: 6%

Granted, this is not a particularly great indicator as there will be quite a bit of split ticket voting; particularly for Compromís, but I could also see it happening with Vox.

I actually think Vox will slightly underperform or perform roughly on par with their national results in Valencia.

They might get plenty of seats though, since both Valencia and Alicante have quite a bit of seats (15 and 12 respectively). I could easily see Vox getting 2 in each province.

[Former President tack50]

  So in some of the 3 and 4 seat districts it would make sense for Vox and UP voters to vote tactically for either the PP or PSOE, if they want to help the bigger party closer to them on the ideology scale and when their party has a low chance to win one of the seats. Has tactical voting like this occured in recent Spanish elections?

Oh, absolutely. Before 2015 tactical voting was extremely common among IU voters, often voting PSOE as the lesser evil. 2008 being the greatest example

[Former President tack50]

Actually, Cs' number seems alright.

However, the poll taken at large is complete junk. Their general election poll was surprisingly reasonable, but there's no way the left wins a landslide this big in Valencia.

Valencia is still, at best, a community roughly around the national average; and all election polls are predicting a right wing victory in the popular vote; and vote splitting won't hurt the right all that much in the regional election compared to the national election (Remember even Castellón gives out 24 seats in the regional election; compared to 5 in the national one)

Yes, there will be split ticket voting, especially regarding Compromís, and that split ticket voting will help the left, but the Valencian election is no better than a tossup for the left, and I'm even tempted to give PP a small advantage.

Anyways, my ratings for the 28th of April elections since the campaign will start tonight at midnight:

General election (largest party): Likely PSOE
General election (largest bloc, popular vote): Likely right wing bloc
General election (largest bloc, seats): Lean right wing bloc

General election (most likely government): Lean new election (if we get a government, it's lean PSOE-Cs)

Valencian election (largest party): Likely PSOE
Valencian election (likeliest government): Tossup

[Former President tack50]

Also, we have now confirmed that there will be a single main debate during the campaign. All 5 main party leaders (Sánchez, Casado, Rivera, Iglesias and Abascal) will be invited and have confirmed they will go.

The debate will be hosted by private broadcaster Atresmedia, the ones in charge of the main 4-way 2015 debate as well.

There was also an offer to do a 4 way debate (without Vox) on the public broadcaster TVE, but Sánchez allegedly refused. The thing about TVE is that they have to be (even more) impartial than private broadcasters, so they were only allowed to invite parties with seats in Congress.

Of course, there will be more debates, generally with smaller parties and surrogates for the main ones. For example in 2016 we got a "women's debate" (Andrea Levy vs Margarita Robles  vs Carolina Bescansa vs Inés Arrimadas) and an "economic debate" (Luis de Guindos, Jordi Sevilla, Alberto Garzón and Luis Garicano). Both also done by Atresmedia.

[Former President tack50]

Not that unrealistic at all. The theshold for getting an overall majority as a single party seems to start at around 40% of the vote but depends also on how divided the opposition is.

Felipe González got exactly 175/350 seats in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote. On an even more surprising fact, UCD came only 7 seats away from a majority with only 34.8% of the popular vote. The party that has benefited the most from the election system historically is still UCD, Spain's election system was designed on purpose so UCD would get a majority with roughly 35% of the popular vote while PSOE would need closer to 40%.

However, trends have definitely made this less clear and more about just benefiting large parties though there's still a very small right wing bias when all things are equal (which only mattered during the 2 party system era)

The math for blocs is certainly a lot more complicated though. But it's not that weird for PSOE+Cs to be with a majority with only around 43% of the vote.

[Former President tack50]

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

[Former President tack50]

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

[Former President tack50]

I gather the leader of Vox was not in the debate?

IIRC Spanish debates are limited to parties that got a certain percentage of the vote in the previous election.

Indeed. Sánchez wanted to invite Vox, but election authorities ruled that it was not legal to invite them.

I think the criteria used by the election authorities was that only parties above 5% at a recient national election would get the right to take part in the debate.

In 2015 they could get around this for Podemos and Cs with a loophole, as Podemos got 8% in the 2014 European election and Cs got 6.5% nationwide in the local elections.

No such luck this time for Vox though, as their only election was the Andalucia regional one, but that was a regional, not national election.

[Former President tack50]

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

Not really. Many people think that it's better for Vox being outside in order to take the role of victim.  Additionally Vox leader Santiago Abascal lacks experience in debates,  as well as an dialectical tools or an elaborate discourse. While the four leaders debate again tonight Vox will organize a big campaing act in Las Rozas, an affluent PP stronghold near Madrid. They have their own agenda and are running a parallel campaign strongly focused on social networks. Abascal is making very few public appearances. Bolsonaro style.

To be fair Bolsonaro did have a very big reason not to do public appearances.

As for Vox, they don't seem to me likme they are doing any less rallies than the other parties. Plus their ralies have huge attendance numbers apparently.

I believe if there's one party polls are underpolling, it has to be Vox. I certainly don't believe the polls giving them around 8%; they are clearly in double digits.

[Former President tack50]

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?

Yes they are. Not quite the old "Andorra fruit market", but better than nothing. One of the more absurd things about Spanish election law.

And as Velasco said, the Electopanel is not a proper poll, but more like an online panel.

It's better than nothing, and they did perform remarkably well in the Andalusian election, but it's not a proper poll. In other words, we have absolutely no clues about what is going to happen.

As for Vox coming in first for the right, it's very unlikely. An scenario like 2015 but on the right is more likely though (Vox coming third and remarkably close to PP; like 1-2 points behind just like UP in 2015 came within 1.5% of PSOE)

There certainly can be a polling error that puts Vox way up ahead, but not sure if even that would be enough to put them in first.

[Former President tack50]

Also, just realized I haven't posted any campaign posters/Slogans. So since today is the last campaign day, here you go!

PSOE: Make it happen / The Spain you want



PP: Safe value



Cs: Let's go Ciudadanos



UP: History is written by you



Vox: For Spain



PACMA: Join the Re-evolution



Regional parties. Posting only links in order not to make this too large.

ERC: It's about freedom
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768210_ba719594.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

JxCat: You are our voice, you are our strength
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768211_71765438.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

PNV: The Basque Country moves us, zurea gurea (no idea what that means)
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/img/ho19/eaj-facebook-orokorrak19.jpg

Bildu: To advance
(Can't find an actual campaign poster, so here's a random rally)
https://static.deia.eus/images/2019/04/18/acto-electoral-de-eh-18931073_31851_11.jpg

CC: Fighting for the Canaries
http://ccfuerteventura.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/pegada-carteles-4.jpg

Compromís: Unstoppable
https://www.elperiodic.com/archivos/imagenes/noticias/2019/03/27/baldo-imparables-28a.jpeg

BNG: Galicia now
https://www.adiantegalicia.es/upload/images/carteles-bng.jpg

NCa: To defend the Canaries / Canaries with a future
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Qa_I0_4zipc/XK_O7pfMO9I/AAAAAAABFAs/amjHtcIfNqksQwQ-KJSL9VCVaEI9-z1lQCLcBGAs/s1600/Nueva%2BCanarias%2Barranc%25C3%25B3%2Bsu%2Bcampa%25C3%25B1a%2Belectoral%2B%2Bdel%2B28-A%2Ben%2Bla%2Bmedianoche%2Bdel%2Bjueves%2Bcon%2Bla%2Btradicional%2Bpegada%2Bde%2Bcarteles%2B2.jpg

PRC: Cantabria wins
https://www.publico.es/tremending/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/revilla-1132x670.jpg

(yes, that's a meme, couldn't find a proper pic but the poster itself is unaltered)

FR: We are a wall: Republic / Vote a breakdown, vote republic
https://www.rac1.cat/r/GODO/R1/p0/WebSite/Imagenes/2019/04/12/img_20190412-143245_muntat_front_repub-kPQH--1084x766@RAC1-Web.jpg

These are all the regional parties with a chance at a seat.

[Former President tack50]

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

Most likely 167. Combined with an expected 6 for PNV and 3 for Compromis that would add up to 176.

[Former President tack50]

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

 
Fernando Paz, who leads the VOX list in Albacete, who questioned the Holocaust and called the Nuremberg Trials a Farce, will be getting your special prayers undoubtably?

https://www.larazon.es/espana/los-judios-preocupados-por-las-declaraciones-del-candidato-de-vox-por-albacete-IE22510495

In Vox's defense (never thought I'd say that), they did eventually have to take him out of the list

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190321/461160389167/fernando-paz-vox-albacete-renuncia-caceria-mediatica.html

They do have plenty of other "colourful" candidates, including 2 pro-Francoist former generals

[Former President tack50]

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

[Former President tack50]

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

Yeah, somewhat, particularly for PSOE; but my prediction isn't that pessimistic and could be worse (like say a PP-Cs-Vox majority)

In fact if you believe ERC would support Sánchez this result would actually give him a decent working majority of PSOE-UP-ERC-PNV, with no need for PDECat.

Plus the option of a "coalition of chaos" that excludes the Catalans (PSOE-UP-PNV-Bildu-Compromís-PACMA) would be at 173, only 2 seats short of a majority. Though that is still 2 seats short.

[Former President tack50]

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option. I am very pessimistic about ERC's chances of supporting Sánchez, and those are at least 11 seats that he desperately needs and won't get. Without the Catalans, Sánchez's chances of forming government drop drastically.

On the other hand, the right also seems unlikely to get a majority and unlike the left, they can't rely on any regional parties whatsoever (not even CC would support a Vox-backed government)

Of the 3 combinations, I think PSOE-Cs would be the most likely, but after Cs has rejected it so harshly, I doubt it's happening. Plus it's unclear if it would add up in the first place. This one can rely a bit more on regional allies, but not much more. CC would certainly support this, and so would PRC (if they get in), but that's 2 seats at most (and most likely just one). I thought PNV could support this, but after Cs' hardline campaign and extremely harsh critizism of the Basque economic arrangement, it isn't happening.

So overall, probably chaos, but it all depends on what ERC does.

[Former President tack50]

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option.

How long will it take before we get new elections then?

It's a fixed date from the day the confidence vote happens. My rough estimate would be a 2nd election some time after the summer, probably in autumn. Last time that happened the election was in December and the repeat election in June. So expect approximately 6 months between elections.

[Former President tack50]

The right is going to win the election.

Well, you need to define "win".

Win the popular vote? Yeah, that is almost a certainty. Almost all polls seem to give the right an advantage of somewhere around 5 points. There is only one poll or 2 predicting a left wing victory in the popular vote and even those give narrow victories of 1 point

Win more seats than the left? That one is iffy. Because of the way Spanish elections work, with a somewhat but not fully proportional system; this one is doable but far from a certainty. I'd give it a 50% chance of happening

Being able to actually make government?. This one, while possible, is actually unlikely, I'd give it a 20-25% chance of happening. The right is a heavy underdog for this because while PSOE-UP could theoretically get into government with as little as 155 seats (if you assume getting ERC is doable), the right needs at least 176 as they can't rely in any regional parties whatsoever, not even the Canarians.

The right can easily win, but for a PP-Cs-Vox government, winning is not enough, they need to win big.

[Former President tack50]

Assuming PSOE-UP does not get the numbers to form a government, under what circumstances will C join up with PSOE?  I assume if the PP-C gap is small then C will prefer to stay in opposition so it can overtake PP as the main party of the Right while a large PP-C gap would see C join up with PSOE?  If so I guess there is a contradiction since a weaker C performance also means that a PSOE-C alliance might not be able to form a stable government.     

If Cs is to be believed, maybe, maybe they would support a PSOE-Cs government led by someone else instead of Sánchez; presumably led by a moderate like Susana Díaz (though after the Andalusian election, probably not her especifically)

But even that seems unlikely as they have shifted extremely hard to the right. Plus Cs' efforts to remove Rajoy as PP leader in 2016 failed and I can't see them succeeding this time.

If Vox overtakes Cs (meaning a weak PP government or a 3 way coalition) or even worse, PP (meaning PM Abascal) then things with PSOE-Cs would get more interesting. But if the order is PP-Cs-Vox, I can't see any way for PSOE-Cs to happen.

[Former President tack50]

Anyway, the myth that Spain is immune to far-right populist parties will crash and burn tomorrow.

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.

Next stop for crashing and burning the myth of immunity to far right populism: Portugal?

15-20% is way, way too high though. As DavidB has said, 12-14% seems more realistic for a "Vox surge" scenario. I'd cap Vox at 15%

And that's of course if you assume a surge in the first place. It's also possible that polls actually got them right (which would mean 11%) or that they overestimated them (very unlikely though)

[Former President tack50]

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think you don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

While Tender's take was indeed bad, he did express it in a respectful way. Inaccuracies and bad takes are not disrespectful. And I won't say anything else on the matter, unless we want to have the mods have to clean up this mess.

Or let's not and stay focused on the election. Will we get one last emojipanel today?

No, the people behind it said they weren't publishing any more panels. They have said they will keep taking answers to their panel though, and publish an "Exit panel" as a sort of exit poll.

We will also get 2 proper polls made during the campaign though, like we had in the Catalan and Andalusian elections. One will be done by GAD3 for TVE (the national public TV). Another will be done by IMOP for Cadena COPE (a large private radio station which leans conservative). They will both be released at 20:00 Spanish time when polls close in the mainland.

No proper exit polls though. (or Andorra fruit polls for that matter).

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of Vox surges, El País and Kiko Llaneras have published what they believe are the 6 most likely ways for the polls to fail. They recognize that while polls are generally accurate, there is always a polling mistake somewhere. So here it is



https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/27/actualidad/1556358041_818858.html

And here are the scenarios they believe are most likely if polls miss:

1: Vox surge (like other examples across Europe)
2: More general right wing surge (kind of like Andalucia)
3: Podemos makes a comeback (kind of like 2015)
4: The trends during the first half of the campaign keep going
5: PP resilience (kind of like 2016)
6: 100% accurate polls

Yes, 100% accurate polls would also qualify as a mistake historically speaking. Also, I believe scenario 4 is not happening, as the debates pretty much stopped any PSOE momentum and benefited Cs.

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?

Yeah, they will probably ask for that plus a pardon for the Catalan politicians in jail. PSOE is almost definitely not accepting it (I can see them pardoning the Catalan politicians or commuting their sentences under some circumstances; but a referendum is not happening, ever, under PSOE).

Whether they will accept empty words about dialogue and comprehension or adopt a harsh line of "referendum now", I do not know. I personally believe they won't.

As for the Basques, I don't really get the question. PNV is not actively pushing for independence. Bildu is indeed actively for independence, but they've adopted a very moderate approach on that and do openly say they will support Sánchez. Very surprising for a party where a large part of the membership supported the murders of local PSOE officials by ETA as reciently as 11 years ago!

PNV is 100% reliable for Sánchez IMO, while Bildu is more or less where ERC is. However, because of ETA, PSOE can't exactly ask for Bildu support openly, it gives absolutely horrible optics.