2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 620725 times)
emailking
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« Reply #100 on: November 07, 2020, 04:59:09 PM »
Guess that removes any lingering doubt he might concede and go quietly.
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emailking
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« Reply #101 on: November 07, 2020, 06:22:11 PM »
Quote from: LVScreenssuck on November 07, 2020, 04:33:52 AM
99.5% confidence is an absurd standard that they haven’t used before and for that matter weren’t using when they made their earlier calls.
And PA and Georgia have likely both passed it by this point.

99.5% is the standard that has been used by decision desks for many elections now. They were using it when they made the earlier calls.
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emailking
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« Reply #102 on: November 07, 2020, 09:45:00 PM »

That interview is so delusional omg.
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emailking
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« Reply #103 on: November 07, 2020, 10:34:15 PM »
The 306 map is amazing. Really hope it holds.

Trump maybe has a whiff and a prayer of getting AZ/GA, but not PA.
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emailking
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« Reply #104 on: November 08, 2020, 11:40:41 AM »
Not sure we can just assume Biden would have lost those states if the Green party was on the ballot. A lot of those hypothetical voters may have just stayed home. But yes we absolutely should have ranked choice voting like Maine so they can be on the ballot and receive votes and it doesn't matter.
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emailking
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« Reply #105 on: November 08, 2020, 06:03:39 PM »


I don't think he's appearing though.
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emailking
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« Reply #106 on: November 08, 2020, 06:12:48 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 08, 2020, 06:04:56 PM
What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Trump loves him and promotes his show a lot but kind of a nobody yeah. Guess we'll have to see what Tucker does tomorrow.
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emailking
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« Reply #107 on: November 09, 2020, 02:58:38 PM »

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emailking
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« Reply #108 on: November 09, 2020, 03:30:13 PM »
Speaking of Georgia...
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emailking
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« Reply #109 on: November 09, 2020, 07:27:43 PM »
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emailking
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« Reply #110 on: November 09, 2020, 07:31:31 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 09, 2020, 07:13:45 PM
Quote from: FalterinArc on November 09, 2020, 07:07:24 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 09, 2020, 06:55:01 PM

I would be more worried about this if Barr had "found" something with Durham.

They don't have to find anything, they're going to use this to challenge the electoral votes in the Senate, which McConnell seems all in on doing

Then he needs Murkowski, Collins, and Romney to back him in this scheme which seems dubious.
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emailking
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« Reply #111 on: November 09, 2020, 07:43:18 PM »
In the next tweet he says he won Wisconsin too.
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emailking
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« Reply #112 on: November 09, 2020, 07:44:42 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 09, 2020, 07:42:04 PM
Given how many states Trump's challenging, it's time to ask what I asked months ago and never got an answer to--while the courts are clearly not giving Trump victories he wants, what happens if he continues to keep the states tied up in the appeals process, and thus prevents MI/AZ/PA/GA (states that have R legislatures) from certifying their results before the December 8 deadline?

The cases will get expedited through the courts or dismissed outright.
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emailking
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« Reply #113 on: November 10, 2020, 12:41:58 AM »
The path he lays out is trump winning AZ and GA and then either WI or PA flips due to an audit or a recount. He admits each of these steps is a slim chance. So that's slim x slim x slim. But it's not over there's a chance! 🙄
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emailking
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« Reply #114 on: November 10, 2020, 11:21:41 AM »


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emailking
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« Reply #115 on: November 10, 2020, 04:19:46 PM »
That's an odd tweet. I don't think the breakdown of early vote vs. election day explains why it was a hard lift or even means it was.
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emailking
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« Reply #116 on: November 10, 2020, 09:20:33 PM »

Doesn't seem like he's joking to me.


Guy denies he recanted.
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emailking
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« Reply #117 on: November 10, 2020, 09:55:58 PM »
Yeah I'm only posting a fraction of his stuff but he's in some deep denial. Unless this was just the plan all along.
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emailking
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« Reply #118 on: November 11, 2020, 02:47:48 PM »
Trump retweeted that statistical case tweet. Also he still thinks he's going to win Wisconsin.



Also, bad polls are illegal apparently. ^
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emailking
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« Reply #119 on: November 11, 2020, 07:43:14 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 11, 2020, 07:37:34 PM
Yep... this should not get lost in all of this. Trump brought out insane GOP turnout and he... still lost to Biden by 5-7 million votes. The GOP can't rely on that record turnout again, since (unfortunately) it seems all Trump.

Dems can't necessarily rely on their turnout either. It was stoked by Trump.
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emailking
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« Reply #120 on: November 12, 2020, 12:16:54 AM »
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emailking
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« Reply #121 on: November 12, 2020, 12:21:04 AM »
Quote from: South Dakota Democrat on November 11, 2020, 10:44:32 PM

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

Just because it was close doesn't mean it was premature

Quote from: South Dakota Democrat on November 11, 2020, 11:58:06 PM
Yeah, no, that's just utter B.S.  Them calling it definitely indicated they thought it would be a larger margin than will end up being the case. You simply don't call a race when you think it'll be in the 10-20k vote range.  No, you're wrong.

They call it when they're 99.5% sure of the result, not when they're 99.5% sure it won't be close, more than 10-20k vote difference, or anything else. Yes they probably thought it wouldn't be close because the confidence interval probably spread several percent. But the moment they call it, a razor thin margin might still possible.
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emailking
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« Reply #122 on: November 12, 2020, 12:27:04 AM »
You don't know that though. They apparently determined the batches couldn't be friendly enough for that to happen, or at least the chance was statistically insignificant based on the data they had.
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emailking
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« Reply #123 on: November 12, 2020, 12:35:01 PM »
They deleted his victory apparently.
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emailking
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« Reply #124 on: November 12, 2020, 11:41:05 PM »
Doubling down on this.
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