Canadian Election 2019

[mileslunn]

I think at this point it is too early to say the exact fallout.  I expect much like the India trip the Liberals will see a drop in the polls, but with 8 months to go there is still plenty of time to recover.  If the Tories remain in the lead Scheer will come under increased scrutiny so the question will become are people comfortable with him as PM or not and is not implausible people might decide Trudeau is the lesser of two evils.  I think Trudeau's bigger danger is winning another majority will be harder although not impossible.  Also each negative action damages the brand and over time it adds up so even if he wins in 2019, another scandal in his second term might prove fatal in 2023 whereas without this it might have not, otherwise accumulation of baggage.  I think Trudeau handled it quite poorly, mind you Scheer's call for Trudeau's resignation was a bit over the top while Singh's of a public inquiry was probably most reasonable.

We do however live in a more polarized electorate and the 30% or so who are part of the Conservative base, this will just further re-enforce their views while for the progressives whose primary goal is to prevent another Tory government, they might not be as enthusiastic about voting Liberal as in 2015, but unless the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals they likely still will.  For the shrinking swing vote, it will come down to are they comfortable with Scheer or does he come across as too extreme for them.

[mileslunn]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.

[mileslunn]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

[mileslunn]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.

[mileslunn]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.

They never took a substantial lead but they did poll into a statistical tie and even David Herle is on the record saying in 2004 their own internal tracking showed Harper would have won had the election been held two weeks earlier.  The reason is the Tory vote was more efficient as they only got 9% in Quebec so few wasted votes there while Liberals still got 22% in Alberta so even where the Liberals lost they still got lots of votes while the Tories were irrelevant then in large swaths of the country.  Ironically in 2006 it was the opposite, the Liberal vote was more efficient due to their implosion in Alberta and the strong jump in Tory support to 25% in Quebec.  In fact I believe up until the final weekend there was a real possibility of Liberals winning the popular vote but Tories win more seats.  But after the Randy White tape and stupid remark Paul Martin supported child pornography there was a last minute swing over the final weekend to the Liberals.  If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.

[mileslunn]

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

This doesn't look good for the Liberals as all three went solidly Tory in 2011 and the areas did in the most recent provincial elections while all three were pretty narrow Liberal wins in 2015 suggesting while some may be personal, also suggests a lot of close ridings may very well flip back to the Tories unless they screw up badly.  If it were more random might mean less but when all in close ridings says a lot about what they think their chances are.  I think if long term MPs like Scott Brison, it could be just wanting to spend more time with family, but when first term different story.  I don't believe either NDP or Tories have any first term although NDP has a fair number who were first elected in 2011 while for Tories most are from the 2004 and 2006 class of those not running again.

[mileslunn]

For Nathan Cullen a huge blow, but I am guessing he might run provincially in 2021.  North Coast and Stikine are both NDP held so if either retires possibility there.  May also run in Skeena which could be interesting as both him and current MLA Ellis Ross are high profile although I would put my money on Ellis Ross holding if Nathan Cullen doesn't run, but on Nathan Cullen if he does.

I still think the NDP will hold the riding, but I suspect the Tories will do better than they have in recent elections and will start to look more like it does provincially.  NDP blowouts on coast and Indian Reserves.  Tories win inland towns like Smithers and Terrace, Kitimat could go either way as while traditionally NDP, BC Liberals did win it in 2017 (my guess is LNG as this is supposed to be where one of the major LNG projects are was a big reason), Prince Rupert stays NDP but not a blowout.  Usually Nathan Cullen would win Prince Rupert by 30+ margins whereas provincially usually NDP margins over BC Liberals only around 5 points.  So NDP holds areas where they win provincially, but Tories win the polls the BC Liberals do provincially which is enough to make it closer, but not enough to win it outright.

[mileslunn]

Bold prediction: Trudeau remains PM due to the Liberals taking advantage of an NDP collapse in Quebec.

Nothing bold about that in fact most likely outcome.  Even if Liberals are reduecd to a minority he remains PM.  Heck much like BC, if the Tories only win a plurality of seats the NDP will likely prop up the Liberals much like the Greens are in BC so unless BQ rebounds in Quebex (they won't work with them) or Tories get a majority he remains PM and both those while plausible are not likely.

[mileslunn]

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

[mileslunn]

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)

I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...

It depends, a lot were nominated back in the spring when Liberals were still tied or slightly ahead in the polls.  It was after Alberta election NDP saw a big bump that hurt Liberals as well as Tory attack ads were beginning to take their toll.  Its true in August, I know a number of Liberal party members who more or less wrote him off but many of those back in April still thought he had a good chance and did again in September.  There were probably some but I don't think it was like NDP surge federally in 2011 in Quebec or NDP win in Alberta in 2015 where you had a whole wack of members elected who never thought they would.  Even in Ontario, while I suspect vast majority of NDP MPPs thought they had a shot, probably some were not expecting it.  I don't think Toronto-St. Paul's or St. Catherines were on their target list in March 2018 and likewise I don't think Ottawa West-Nepean was either which they nearly pulled off an upset. 

[mileslunn]

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)

True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.

[mileslunn]

Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.

[mileslunn]

Abacus is out to today and very bad numbers for the Liberals, not just topline but government now has an approval rating of only 34% while 48% disapprove and positive impression of Trudeau is down to 33%, negative at 46%.  At year's end approval rating and impression of Trudeau was slightly positive.  Looks like it was a tie from Christmas to mid February and then Tories pulled ahead.  https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-controversy-impacted-public-opinion/

Conservative 36%
Liberal 30%
NDP 17%
Green 9%
BQ 5%
Others 3%

So I think notwithstanding Innovative research numbers this is taking a toll on the Liberals.  Will it be fatal, not necessarily as a lot can change.  There is a chance Tories are peaking too early since as long as they are behind no one pays attention to them, but once it looks like they might win focus shifts.  At the same time the Liberals absolutely cannot afford to slide further since if when they go on summer recess if they still have numbers like this, they can probably rule out of a majority and while need to rely on Scheer stumbling to even get a minority.  But this could be a flash in the pan and as this fades off front page news numbers could recover.  I remember in 2005 when the Jean Brault testimony at the Sponsorship scandal let to the Tories opening up a 13 point lead which was in April 2005, but by July of 2005 Liberals were back in front with a 10 point lead.  Now true Harper ultimately did win but he stayed behind until January 2006.

[mileslunn]

Big question is whether Trudeau survives the scandal ?

With no obvious successor I think he will.  As for winning in October, agreed a majority is going to be an uphill battle but not impossible especially if both Scheer and Singh underperform.  Likewise if he has some big bold promise that is popular with the public like lets see universal pharmacare that might help too.  Still I think there is a better than even chance he remains PM since as long as Liberals + NDP + Greens get at least 170 seats he stays on even if Tories win a plurality.  Now I don't think he will rely on the BQ so if Tories + BQ is greater than 170 seats Scheer becomes PM, but since BQ is more left wing than right wing probably doesn't pass a lot and has to run a fairly centrist govt risk losing on a non-confidence.  Now if Tories + PPC get over 170 seats then expect a very right wing government, but asides Bernier's own riding, I don't see PPC winning anywhere else and even there I think it will be a tough fight. 

As for Tories getting a majority, unlike six months ago it is now at least plausible but still an uphill battle.  Liberals still ahead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec even if things have tightened a bit while still competitive in Ontario and British Columbia.  Tories need a solid lead in the last two mentioned to win a majority, winning half the seats in both won't be enough.  Prairies should largely go Tory and outside Winnipeg will probably be able to count the non-Tory seats on one hand.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)

I suspect if such happened we would be back to the polls in under a year.  BQ and CPC have little in common but BQ and Liberals for obvious reasons won't work together either.  LPC might abstain but current LPC is more left wing in both party membership and caucus than it was back then.  A lot would probably more than anything depend on public opinion polls and what the public wanted as knowing an election could happen anytime soon parties would not want to do anything to hurt their chances.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.

Actually since 2004, Nanos has been within a point of the actual result in their final polls so they have one of the best records.  They use CATI which while expensive is the most accurate and usually what parties use for internal polls.

[mileslunn]

Leger out for Quebec only, would be interested to see regionals but seems CPC has gained some from BQ and PPC.  For BQ, they seem more your rural nationalists as opposed to progressive types like they were under Duceppe.

PLC 35%
CPC 26%
BQ 17%
Vert 9%
NPD 7%
PPC 4%

[mileslunn]

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

[mileslunn]

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

It will depend on polls as most environmentalists know Scheer will be even less supportive of their demands than Trudeau.  If Liberals have a solid lead or its clear the Tories are going to win, then they will probably vote for what they want, but if close, I think a lot will vote strategically.  Also what riding they live in will matter.  If in a safe Tory riding like Rural Alberta or no hope Tory one like Downtown Toronto and Island of Montreal, a lot will go elsewhere as no risk of splitting the vote, but if competitive ones like 905 belt many will probably vote Liberal strategically as the Tories have a strong base but not majority so every NDP and Green vote gained increases the chances of the Tories winning here.

[mileslunn]

In terms of crossing floor and winning.  Markham-Stouffville is a very marginal riding and would probably go Conservative if an election were called today so Philpott could potentially win if she crossed the floor to the Conservatives, but she always struck me as being on the left of the party so don't think she would be a good fit.  NDP is very weak there so would have no chance.  JWR represents an urban riding and I find in urban areas candidate matters less than in rural areas.  If she runs as an independent I suspect she will draw votes from all parties but not enough to win.  Vancouver-Granville is a pretty solid Liberal and only goes Tory or NDP if either is heading for a majority nationally.  North side is a Liberal/NDP battleground while south side is a Tory/Liberal so Liberals win by being strong throughout it.

[mileslunn]

In completely different BC news, PPC is imploding due to far-right infiltration and accusations of racism and xenophobia from founding members.

No surprise, but good news for the Tories.  Fewer splits also PPC helps take all the nut cases, still party needs to be careful since if they don't vet their candidates carefully could sink them.  UCP is making the race in Alberta more competitive than expected for that reason.

[mileslunn]

And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.

[mileslunn]

Pretty sure Cuzner's riding will stay Liberal, very safe one although ironically it did go mostly PC in the last provincial election but I doubt that will spill over federally.  Bill Casey's is most likely to flip, Fraser's possible but considering how heavily the area went Liberal I think they will hold it by a narrower margins.  Brison's is a traditional Tory seat, but a Red Tory one so I think Liberals have better chance here.  If federal Tories had a Red Tory leader they could probably win it, but ever since the merger there is no way the base would let that happen.  Looking at Nova Scotia in terms of potential Tory pickups.

I would say Cumberland-Colchester is only likely one at the moment.  Central Nova, West Nova, South Shore-St. Margaret's and Kings-Hants possible but not likely.  Central Nova would flip if Peter MacKay returned but I think with him out it will probably stay liberal but by a much narrower margin.  In South Shore-St. Margaret's, Gerald Keddy's wins were always very narrow and he benefited from a strong split on the left so if NDP does better than I think Tories could win it, but if they remain in the ditch Liberals should hold it even if Tories rebound to high 30s (that is their ceiling there).