Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189157 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #175 on: March 01, 2019, 12:09:00 PM »



Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.
That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.

The last poll in BC, had the Greens at 13% up from 9% in 2015, and i'm certain that's concentrated in the Lower mainland and the Island. I will give that while the NDP saw a decrease the greens have probably been one of the biggest benefactors along with the Liberals. If that continues, say the NDP still only comes out after the election at 14-15% and they can not nominate a strong/star candidate Victoria is likely lost to the Greens. I still think it is premature to say the seat is Green especially since they lost it by 10% last time when the NDP tanked.
Even with the Green success in the Provincial election, they supplanted the BCL as the opposition to the NDP in the two Victoria seats, but topped off at 30%.

It all depends on if Jagmeet and the NDP can regain support, and BC will be one of those places they are going to focus on where they can gain.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #176 on: March 01, 2019, 02:04:20 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.

They never took a substantial lead but they did poll into a statistical tie and even David Herle is on the record saying in 2004 their own internal tracking showed Harper would have won had the election been held two weeks earlier.  The reason is the Tory vote was more efficient as they only got 9% in Quebec so few wasted votes there while Liberals still got 22% in Alberta so even where the Liberals lost they still got lots of votes while the Tories were irrelevant then in large swaths of the country.  Ironically in 2006 it was the opposite, the Liberal vote was more efficient due to their implosion in Alberta and the strong jump in Tory support to 25% in Quebec.  In fact I believe up until the final weekend there was a real possibility of Liberals winning the popular vote but Tories win more seats.  But after the Randy White tape and stupid remark Paul Martin supported child pornography there was a last minute swing over the final weekend to the Liberals.  If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #177 on: March 01, 2019, 04:10:52 PM »

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lilTommy
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« Reply #178 on: March 01, 2019, 04:29:12 PM »



Ya, that stings... interesting here: some talk he could be eyeing a seat in Victoria? There are already two former NDP MPs in the BC government, Malcolmson (Nanaimo) and Jinny Simms (Surrey-Panorama). where would he run? Stikine is already an NDP riding but Skeena was lost in 2017, would be my bet.
Anyway, big loss for the NDP. But also, it's been on the walls he had already said "he had not made up his mind" if he was running again, likely following Murray's logic that neither one wanted to announce retirement while the Burnaby South by-election was ongoing.

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1101590069998243842?fbclid=IwAR2Uf7ReEDG4d9CdIHqf6ZDKpPSdPjQXCYaKH8U0nEc6htgO_TvwCCQaofw
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adma
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« Reply #179 on: March 01, 2019, 06:46:49 PM »

In regards to the Greens I guess the question is if this is finally that "Green Surge" or not, I'd guess it depends on how May and Singh perform.

Also, would it be wrong to see this GE as essentially 2 elections?  Tories vs Liberals and NDP vs Greens?

Remember that when it comes to "scientific" election projection sites, they go by polls; and the Greens have a habit of overpolling btw/elections.  So at this point, I *might* take any done-deal Green prediction for Victoria with a grain of salt.

And at this point, too, I might view the other end of the country instead as goes Green-surge potential.
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adma
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« Reply #180 on: March 01, 2019, 06:48:47 PM »

If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.

The "now to be fair" is the important point here.  For that reason, I'd be guarded about using the polls in advance as a barometer.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #181 on: March 02, 2019, 06:52:00 AM »

Another Layton-Mulcair frontbencher, Nathan Cullen announced he isn't running in 2019.
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Poirot
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« Reply #182 on: March 02, 2019, 10:27:01 PM »

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby
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adma
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« Reply #183 on: March 03, 2019, 10:28:06 AM »


Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #184 on: March 03, 2019, 04:46:34 PM »

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

This doesn't look good for the Liberals as all three went solidly Tory in 2011 and the areas did in the most recent provincial elections while all three were pretty narrow Liberal wins in 2015 suggesting while some may be personal, also suggests a lot of close ridings may very well flip back to the Tories unless they screw up badly.  If it were more random might mean less but when all in close ridings says a lot about what they think their chances are.  I think if long term MPs like Scott Brison, it could be just wanting to spend more time with family, but when first term different story.  I don't believe either NDP or Tories have any first term although NDP has a fair number who were first elected in 2011 while for Tories most are from the 2004 and 2006 class of those not running again.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #185 on: March 03, 2019, 04:50:02 PM »

For Nathan Cullen a huge blow, but I am guessing he might run provincially in 2021.  North Coast and Stikine are both NDP held so if either retires possibility there.  May also run in Skeena which could be interesting as both him and current MLA Ellis Ross are high profile although I would put my money on Ellis Ross holding if Nathan Cullen doesn't run, but on Nathan Cullen if he does.

I still think the NDP will hold the riding, but I suspect the Tories will do better than they have in recent elections and will start to look more like it does provincially.  NDP blowouts on coast and Indian Reserves.  Tories win inland towns like Smithers and Terrace, Kitimat could go either way as while traditionally NDP, BC Liberals did win it in 2017 (my guess is LNG as this is supposed to be where one of the major LNG projects are was a big reason), Prince Rupert stays NDP but not a blowout.  Usually Nathan Cullen would win Prince Rupert by 30+ margins whereas provincially usually NDP margins over BC Liberals only around 5 points.  So NDP holds areas where they win provincially, but Tories win the polls the BC Liberals do provincially which is enough to make it closer, but not enough to win it outright.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #186 on: March 03, 2019, 08:05:45 PM »

Bold prediction: Trudeau remains PM due to the Liberals taking advantage of an NDP collapse in Quebec.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #187 on: March 03, 2019, 10:30:22 PM »

Bold prediction: Trudeau remains PM due to the Liberals taking advantage of an NDP collapse in Quebec.

Nothing bold about that in fact most likely outcome.  Even if Liberals are reduecd to a minority he remains PM.  Heck much like BC, if the Tories only win a plurality of seats the NDP will likely prop up the Liberals much like the Greens are in BC so unless BQ rebounds in Quebex (they won't work with them) or Tories get a majority he remains PM and both those while plausible are not likely.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #188 on: March 03, 2019, 10:40:30 PM »

I also think the Ford premiership in Ontario might harm the federal Tories in the province. That's just a hunch, though.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #189 on: March 04, 2019, 08:22:18 AM »


Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #190 on: March 04, 2019, 04:02:58 PM »




Was already posted in the General Discussion thread, but seemed relevant to election analysis.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #191 on: March 04, 2019, 04:05:43 PM »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.
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adma
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« Reply #192 on: March 04, 2019, 06:34:21 PM »

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #193 on: March 04, 2019, 06:47:29 PM »

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...

It depends, a lot were nominated back in the spring when Liberals were still tied or slightly ahead in the polls.  It was after Alberta election NDP saw a big bump that hurt Liberals as well as Tory attack ads were beginning to take their toll.  Its true in August, I know a number of Liberal party members who more or less wrote him off but many of those back in April still thought he had a good chance and did again in September.  There were probably some but I don't think it was like NDP surge federally in 2011 in Quebec or NDP win in Alberta in 2015 where you had a whole wack of members elected who never thought they would.  Even in Ontario, while I suspect vast majority of NDP MPPs thought they had a shot, probably some were not expecting it.  I don't think Toronto-St. Paul's or St. Catherines were on their target list in March 2018 and likewise I don't think Ottawa West-Nepean was either which they nearly pulled off an upset. 
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adma
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« Reply #194 on: March 04, 2019, 06:57:16 PM »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)

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mileslunn
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« Reply #195 on: March 04, 2019, 07:13:56 PM »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #196 on: March 04, 2019, 07:16:44 PM »

CBC reports all ministers have stated their support for JT. Some more appropriately than others.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #197 on: March 05, 2019, 05:34:31 AM »

New poll from Ipsos

40-31-20
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lilTommy
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« Reply #198 on: March 05, 2019, 08:35:25 AM »


Compared to the last Ipsos, 2/18

LPC - 34% - -3
CPC - 35% - +5
NDP - 17% - +3
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Mike88
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« Reply #199 on: March 05, 2019, 06:40:15 PM »

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)
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