Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189085 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #225 on: March 14, 2019, 08:00:48 AM »

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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #226 on: March 14, 2019, 08:29:08 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2019, 11:12:10 AM by Walmart_shopper »

I actually think, all things considered, that Trudeau and the Liberals are doing a remarkable job keeping their heads above water. A scandal like this, so close to an election, for an only marginally popular ruling party, would often be pretty much lethal.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #227 on: March 14, 2019, 11:38:25 AM »

7% for the Dippers in Quebec. 7.

Will any of their Quebec MPs survive?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #228 on: March 14, 2019, 11:44:31 AM »

If the Quebec vote was split as it is in the poll at Lib 35, Con26,BQ 17, does that imply a huge Liberal sweep if those numbers held up, or is their vote not efficiently distributed?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #229 on: March 14, 2019, 01:18:23 PM »

Campaign Research has the QC breakdown:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y83dKTltgfgbSu_LIdcvvupVAqkYWuNP/view

LPC - 29%
CPC - 23%
NPD - 16%
BQ - 16%
Green - 12%
PPC - 3%

I think you can get a sense from the Provincial election when the CAQ won a majority on 38% and only 3 seats in Montreal-Laval.
Last federal the LPC did well and won all over the province, except the Beauce-Quebec City area. But their vote is inefficient normally as its heavily concentrated in MTl-Outaouais area. BUT If the CPC and BQ fight each other out in the Lanaudière-Laurentides (North Shore suburbs) and in the South Shore suburbs of the Montérégie--Centre-du-Quebec regions where the BQ currently holds seats and the CAQ's conservative agenda won over, I could see a) the LPC sneak in and pick up BQ seats even some NDP ones and/or b) some of the NDP MPs in these areas, 6 current MPs win with 30s%. and hang on. The BQ/CPC split could also help the Liberals in Quebec City.

But wild card is both the Green vote, does it stay this high? and where is that 12% coming from? and will the NPD be able to rally back in Quebec to around/above 20% now that they are in a better position with an elected leader and Boulerice as Deputy leader?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #230 on: March 14, 2019, 04:32:51 PM »

Leger out for Quebec only, would be interested to see regionals but seems CPC has gained some from BQ and PPC.  For BQ, they seem more your rural nationalists as opposed to progressive types like they were under Duceppe.

PLC 35%
CPC 26%
BQ 17%
Vert 9%
NPD 7%
PPC 4%
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UWS
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« Reply #231 on: March 14, 2019, 06:20:03 PM »

7% for the Dippers in Quebec. 7.

Will any of their Quebec MPs survive?

I guess that one of the reasons why the NDP is doing so badly is because their progressive base knows that they won’t win the next election and so they decided to throw their support to Trudeau in order to stop Scheer because they would rather have Trudeau as Prime Minister than Scheder and they know that the LPC has the best chance of stopping the CPC from taking power.
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adma
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« Reply #232 on: March 14, 2019, 06:55:13 PM »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..
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mileslunn
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« Reply #233 on: March 14, 2019, 07:26:17 PM »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #234 on: March 15, 2019, 07:09:34 AM »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.
But I can't disagree with your synopsis of the NDP vote. I think the NDP has good chances of gaining in BC; probably some room for gains in ON as well but very concentrated in Toronto and possibly their old bases (Hamilton, N.ON and Windsor) even in 2011 I think the NDP was only at 25% or so, high mark was provincially at 34%, but that is unrealistic here... 15-20% is about right. But with the CONs up, mostly coming from the LPC, the party does have a shot if they target key ridings where they were second to the LPC.
The prairies their is a base but it's weak now due to multiple reason, some internal, but I don't see any of the MPs in danger of losing their seats... Regina-Lewvan could be a gain or a less (depends on what Weir does... the cause of most of the NDPs problems here)
Atlantic Canada, ugh I think the party has a shot a Halifax... and maybe St. John's East, other then that this is still a LPC/CONs playground.
Quebec has some strong individual MPs, survivors of 2015, the party is really just trying to save them and I think they probably can save about 10-12 based on local personal popularity, and local vote, see the QS ridings and you can see a correlation to some degree (Sherbrooke, Abitibi, MTL)

You can see the focus on addressing the above numbers by the shuffle in the caucus leadership. Deputy Leaders are from SASK (Benson) and QC (Boulerice), House leader BC (Julian) Deputy House Leader from QC (Trudel). The high profile Justice is moved to ON (Ramsey) while Deputy Justice BC (Murray) is "demoted" somewhat.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #235 on: March 15, 2019, 08:43:22 AM »

Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.
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adma
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« Reply #236 on: March 15, 2019, 05:26:22 PM »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.

Yeah.  How the NDP and the Bloc could be tied at 16% *nationally* would be beyond me...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #237 on: March 15, 2019, 05:27:01 PM »

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #238 on: March 16, 2019, 09:27:16 AM »

Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.

To add to what MaxQue said, the NDP have a better chance than one would normally expect given their poor polling in Quebec, especially now that the Liberals have come back down to their 2015 result. Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Laurier-Sainte Marie are especially good candidates for NDP holds.

Both seats have a good sized NDP margin, and no other party in the area is an obvious candidate to take lots of votes from the NDP. The Liberals are too federalist, the Tories too conservative, and the Bloc's more rightish anti-immigration approach is a bad fit for the area.

Heck, the Tories managed to hold a seat in Quebec on like 5% of the vote in 2000 Tongue I won't count the NDP totally out yet.
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Poirot
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« Reply #239 on: March 17, 2019, 09:30:10 PM »

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.
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DL
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« Reply #240 on: March 17, 2019, 11:44:25 PM »

Anyone running for the federal Liberals in Laurier-Sté. Marie will quickly be tarred as “Monsieur Pipeline” and if it’s Guilbeault he’ll be seen as a sell out
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lilTommy
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« Reply #241 on: March 18, 2019, 07:39:51 AM »

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #242 on: March 18, 2019, 02:11:05 PM »

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

It will depend on polls as most environmentalists know Scheer will be even less supportive of their demands than Trudeau.  If Liberals have a solid lead or its clear the Tories are going to win, then they will probably vote for what they want, but if close, I think a lot will vote strategically.  Also what riding they live in will matter.  If in a safe Tory riding like Rural Alberta or no hope Tory one like Downtown Toronto and Island of Montreal, a lot will go elsewhere as no risk of splitting the vote, but if competitive ones like 905 belt many will probably vote Liberal strategically as the Tories have a strong base but not majority so every NDP and Green vote gained increases the chances of the Tories winning here.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #243 on: March 18, 2019, 02:51:57 PM »

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

It will depend on polls as most environmentalists know Scheer will be even less supportive of their demands than Trudeau.  If Liberals have a solid lead or its clear the Tories are going to win, then they will probably vote for what they want, but if close, I think a lot will vote strategically.  Also what riding they live in will matter.  If in a safe Tory riding like Rural Alberta or no hope Tory one like Downtown Toronto and Island of Montreal, a lot will go elsewhere as no risk of splitting the vote, but if competitive ones like 905 belt many will probably vote Liberal strategically as the Tories have a strong base but not majority so every NDP and Green vote gained increases the chances of the Tories winning here.

Certainly some voters will vote strategically...but I just have to pop in and say to look at the 905 and Outer Toronto in Ontario 2018. Tons of ridings where the Tories ran down the middle between the NDP and the Libs. Maybe things will be different when there  is two parties rather then three in contention, but don't trust the voters. As the saying goes "A individual voter is smart, voters as a group are stupid."
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #244 on: March 19, 2019, 06:22:42 AM »

Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #245 on: March 19, 2019, 07:25:17 AM »

Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.

Agreed, this is likely to a 3 way race, 4 way if the Green vote actually holds (I am still skeptical that the greens will poll that high, as they did in Outremont by-election but hey, stranger things)
NPD-BQ-LPC fight here. Both the LPC and NPD look to have strong candidates in place, so we will need to see who the BQ nominates; but this area is very left wing so I give the advantage to the NPD here.

I think Hochelaga might be the one to watch; NPD MP is not running again as well, in 2015 the race was much closer then Laurier--Sainte-Marie, 3 way again with the LPC-NPD-BQ only 3% or so separated all three of them! I don't think any of the nominated candidates are personal "star" candidates that would add a few point to personal popularity. Desperately one the NPD needs to hold.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #246 on: March 19, 2019, 08:48:09 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2019, 06:53:51 AM by lilTommy »

Nanos Weekly Tracking numbers: Breakdowns by region, age, sex

https://goo.gl/wdGdui


3/15
LPC - 32.6%
CPC - 35.5%
NDP - 19.8%
Green - 7.7%

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #247 on: March 21, 2019, 07:50:16 AM »

Philpott gives Wells an exclusive where she says there's a lot more about SNCL that needs to be publicly told and denies interest in federal or provincial leadership.
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adma
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« Reply #248 on: March 21, 2019, 05:41:13 PM »


That url needs to be compacted.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #249 on: March 26, 2019, 01:58:21 PM »

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.
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