Canadian Election 2019
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Poirot
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« Reply #150 on: February 21, 2019, 05:22:18 PM »

Ipsos has a new poll

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

Detailed data on Ipsos website:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberal-Re-Election-Chances-in-Jeopardy

Poll was done Feb13-18 so before Butts' resignation..
Tories lead 38% to 32 in Ontario. Liberals still lead in BC with 37%, in Quebec with 38% and Atlantic with 50%.

42% approval of the performance of the government, drop of 9% since December. . 38% government deserve re-election.
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Poirot
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« Reply #151 on: February 21, 2019, 06:35:10 PM »

Leger did a poll February 15-19. The difference from the November poll, Liberals -5, Conservatives +3
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL.pdf

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 34%
NDP 12%
Greens 8%
Bloc 5%
PPC 4%

In line with Ipsos besides NDP numbers but regional differences from Ipsos, could be due to smaller regional sample. Leger has in Atlantic the Liberals only leading 42% to 36, in Ontario a tie with Liberals 38% to 37, in BC the Liberals only at 22% to Cons 36%% Cons, Manitobas/Sask a tie at 40% (?).

36% are satisfied with the government, a drop of 9% since November, Trudeau drops 7% in the best Prime Minister category but still leads at 26%, Scheer 21%, May 8%, Singh 6%, Bernier 4%.

67% of people are aware of the SNC case.
41% believe the PM did something wrong, 12% no wrong, 41% not sure.

57% want a change in government, 27% government be reelected, 15% don't know.

Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)

The second part of the survey is about most important issues, which leader does best on issues and level of immigration.
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL-day-2.pdf
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #152 on: February 23, 2019, 01:16:34 PM »

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.
This, Mulcair was a real leader.
Angus would've done much better too.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #153 on: February 25, 2019, 04:53:18 PM »



Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)



Not surprised Harper came in first, but bet on worst prime-minister would be up there too.  Quite polarizing as for those on the right, he is the only real right wing prime-minister we've ever had (Mulroney and Clark were fairly centrist so more popular amongst swing voters, but probably less so with base) so I would expect pretty much almost everyone who is firmly on the right side of the political spectrum to put him as best.  I suspect pretty much anyone on the left side even if only slightly left of centre would put him as the worst.  Mulroney, and Chretien were close to the centre so Chretien less hated by the right than either Trudeau but less liked by left whereas Mulroney less hated by left than Harper, but less liked by the right than Harper.  Paul Martin, John Turner, Kim Campbell, and Joe Clark were in office for such short periods it is unlikely anyone would have that strong an opinion on them either way.  Whatever one thought at the time, none as PM at least (as cabinet minister different story) left any lasting impacts.
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Poirot
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« Reply #154 on: February 25, 2019, 05:41:42 PM »

There was another poll showing the Liberal party losing a few points. It was a Mainstreet poll done in Quebec for Cogeco on February 17.

LPC 40%
CPC 21%
Bloc 17%
NDP 9%
Green 6.5%
PPC 4.6%

76% have heard of the SNC-Lavalin story.
In its decision about SNC's request should government consider economic impact of possible guilty verdict of the company at trial: Yes 52% No 23%

Should government intervene to avoid a trial for SNC and give them a big fine with a remediation agreement or let the judicial process continue its course: 41% intervene, 49% let the judicial process run

Do you believe Prime Minister Trudeau version of the event? Yes 25% No 55%

Are you satisfied with Trudeau's job on this file?
Very satisfied 14.5%
Satisfied 21.7%
Unsatisfied 36%
Very unsatisfied 14%
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beesley
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« Reply #155 on: February 26, 2019, 07:11:27 AM »

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.
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136or142
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« Reply #156 on: February 26, 2019, 04:31:45 PM »

Latest polling from Nanos (tracking) (February 22 release) and Angus Reid (February 24 release.) The interesting thing about the polls is that they are in rough agreement regionally save for Quebec.  (Nanos regional breakdown can be found by looking up 'Nanos on the numbers.'

Overall
Nanos
Liberal: 36
Conservative: 34
NDP: 15
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 31
Conservative: 38
NDP: 14
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
Others: 5

Atlantic
Nanos
Liberal: 45
Conservative: 31
NDP: 12
Green:8
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 8
Green: 10

Ontario
Nanos
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 16
Green: 10

Angus Reid
Liberal: 37
Conservative: 40
NDP: 14
Green: 7

Prairies
Nanos
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 57
NDP: 13
Green: 4
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 50
NDP: 10
Green: 3

Alberta
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 60
NDP: 9
Green: 5

British Columbia
Nanos
Liberal: 33
Conservative: 30
NDP: 20
Green: 16

Angus Reid:
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 33
NDP: 21
Green: 13

Quebec
Nanos
Liberal: 43
Conservative: 15
NDP: 13
Green: 5
B.Q: 16
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 24
Conservative: 24
NDP: 14
Green: 10
B.Q: 22



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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #157 on: February 26, 2019, 04:35:22 PM »

It could be a meaningless statistical blip for the NDP, but these recent polls suggest the NDP decline has stopped and there is a slight uptick (13 to 14 to 15% with Nanos in the last couple weeks.  Of course within the margin of error.)  

However, to the degree that these polls suggest a possible change in fortune for the NDP, Jagmeet Singh happened to get elected at the right time, as a sustained increase in support would likely be credited to his getting elected to Parliament and his performance in Parliament even though it might be a coincidence.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #158 on: February 28, 2019, 09:25:36 AM »

Jody Wilson-Raybould appeared before committee yesterday and testified that she faced 'veiled threats' about SNC-Lavalin and, that the group pressuring her included the Prime Minister.

Trudeau's camp has moved from denial to talking about saving jobs in Quebec. Scheer called for the PM to resign, and Singh is calling for an independent inquiry. I think Singh's coming off the best here. Scheer's call for resignation was over the top, and not the best for the opposition electorally either. Trudeau is coming off as cynical talking jobs after the denial, and direct testimony from JWR. I think it's safe to say sunny ways are over.

Will be interested the see the polls in the next week or so.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #159 on: February 28, 2019, 12:37:51 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #160 on: February 28, 2019, 12:48:28 PM »

I think at this point it is too early to say the exact fallout.  I expect much like the India trip the Liberals will see a drop in the polls, but with 8 months to go there is still plenty of time to recover.  If the Tories remain in the lead Scheer will come under increased scrutiny so the question will become are people comfortable with him as PM or not and is not implausible people might decide Trudeau is the lesser of two evils.  I think Trudeau's bigger danger is winning another majority will be harder although not impossible.  Also each negative action damages the brand and over time it adds up so even if he wins in 2019, another scandal in his second term might prove fatal in 2023 whereas without this it might have not, otherwise accumulation of baggage.  I think Trudeau handled it quite poorly, mind you Scheer's call for Trudeau's resignation was a bit over the top while Singh's of a public inquiry was probably most reasonable.

We do however live in a more polarized electorate and the 30% or so who are part of the Conservative base, this will just further re-enforce their views while for the progressives whose primary goal is to prevent another Tory government, they might not be as enthusiastic about voting Liberal as in 2015, but unless the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals they likely still will.  For the shrinking swing vote, it will come down to are they comfortable with Scheer or does he come across as too extreme for them.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #161 on: February 28, 2019, 12:53:47 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #162 on: February 28, 2019, 04:33:34 PM »

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vileplume
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« Reply #163 on: February 28, 2019, 04:41:31 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.

That is true to an extent though it's not really cut and dried. In 2017 first time voters and people who didn't vote in 2015 (mostly young, ethnically diverse, economically insecure, remain supporters) broke extremely heavily in Labour's direction and will alone have cost the Tories their majority. However on the other hand people who don't regularly vote turning out for the EU referendum (middle aged to retired people living in small town and post industrial areas) were the main reason why Leave won. If turnout falls amongst these types of people going forward it will help Labour and hurt the Tories. The Lib Dems are the party that benefits most from low turnout though as most low information/irregular voters tend to opt for the party that they want to form the government in general elections i.e. Tory or Labour.
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UWS
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« Reply #164 on: February 28, 2019, 04:59:53 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election
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mileslunn
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« Reply #165 on: February 28, 2019, 05:24:29 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #166 on: February 28, 2019, 05:36:37 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

True, but we should note a few key differences from Adscam/2004: Paul Martin wasn't implicated directly in the scandal like Trudeau is. The Tories had only existed for 6 months on E day 2004 and their predecessors were in chaos. Lastly, the Martin-Liberals were polling much, much higher than the Trudeau-Liberals pre scandal breaking. People were speculating about a 200 seat majority in 2003.

Trudeau could definitely still survive, but I think the comparison to the Sponsorship Scandal only goes so far.
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adma
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« Reply #167 on: February 28, 2019, 07:13:36 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #168 on: February 28, 2019, 08:51:43 PM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.
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Harlow
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« Reply #169 on: February 28, 2019, 10:20:51 PM »



Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.
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adma
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« Reply #170 on: March 01, 2019, 07:35:43 AM »

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.

I'm not thinking of Kenney in terms of Alberta, so much as nationwide impressions--much as was the case with Bob Rae in 1993.

And with Wynne in 2015, she and her government still had a soft-focus "good stewards of power" net-plus reputation--by and large, I'd claim she was still more of a Justin-deal-sealing "Premier Mom" net plus than minus at that time.  And as for the Con vote holding up: it's not just a matter of Ontario vs other provinces, it's also about *where* (and among whom) in Ontario and said other provinces.  Like in Manitoba, it was really more of a "Winnipeg" matter--outside of Winnipeg, the patterns were consistent w/the rest of the rural Prairies--and in the Maritimes and BC, it was a matter of vestigial Red Tories and "promiscuous populists", if you will.  And likewise, where the Cons "held up" best in Ontario were more foretellings of patterns that became clear under Ford (eg the more-marginal-than-expected losses in York Region ethnoburbia)
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lilTommy
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« Reply #171 on: March 01, 2019, 08:28:59 AM »



Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #172 on: March 01, 2019, 09:34:47 AM »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.
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Harlow
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« Reply #173 on: March 01, 2019, 10:22:41 AM »



Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.
That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #174 on: March 01, 2019, 11:40:21 AM »

In regards to the Greens I guess the question is if this is finally that "Green Surge" or not, I'd guess it depends on how May and Singh perform.

Also, would it be wrong to see this GE as essentially 2 elections?  Tories vs Liberals and NDP vs Greens?
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