Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hell I didn’t cover Russia’s biggest issue of the fact their troop morale is low and they don’t seem to have the will or desire for this fight

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

I mean we are on day 11 and Kyiv is not only standing but Russia isn’t even attacking it on the ground anymore. The convoy is not even moving anymore and they don’t control any of the important cities. Yeah they have made advances but still

[Hindsight was 2020]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

Hell I don’t even know how that could result any type of ending for Russia that can be considered a “win” as they either put the puppet in and just leave but by the time the last Russian troopers leave the country that puppet president would be hanging upside down in center of Kyiv Mussolini style or as GoTfan mentioned they’ll have to keep anywhere from 400-500k soldiers in to prop the puppet up and result in a Iraq occupation style quagmire

[Hindsight was 2020]

That’s huge. Russia needs control of Mykolaiv to realistically launch an attack on Odessa

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1501999152728846339
👀

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https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1502523065581854723

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How many generals did we lose in the Iraq invasion again?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Honestly the peace talks have me conflicted as much as I want the killing to end any talks that don’t result in a complete Russian withdrawal of all of Ukraine, Russia paying war reparations, and the removal of Putin is quite frankly unacceptable 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1504663688665604096

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https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504900084844179463

[Hindsight was 2020]

Interesting thread. Whenever this ends, unless Russia repents in the same way that Germany eventually did after the Second World War, the Ukrainian hate towards Russia will last generations.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1505265888563453959?s=20&t=u_0KwyStN12...

I came into the thread to post the same tweet lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505889409408905216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

Holy cr*p the Russians are going to get encircled looking at that map 👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

[Hindsight was 2020]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

Tbf Mariupol is a major urban fight with a lot of men on both sides fighting for a city of 500,000

Oh shoot I forgot there is actual fight on Mariupol, but the greater point stands

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506028136139575302

[Hindsight was 2020]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

[Hindsight was 2020]

There are more and more rumblings on social media that the Russians have been encircled at the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle 👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506594877999656963

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1506753922224074756
🤩

[Hindsight was 2020]

In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

Pretty sure Ukraine has enough Javelins alone to easily blow the entire Belarusian military to shreds in like five minutes.

There is a reason Lukashenko has been dragging his feet on actually committing forces. He knows the moment he does it will be an absolute disaster, and in his precarious position in which he came extremely close to being ousted until Putin bailed him out, that could very easily lead to his swift downfall well before Putin meets the same fate.

Hell I’m gonna launch a flaming 🔥 take and say Belarus joining very likely would become a net positive for Ukraine as not only do they have more than enough resources at this point to stop a Belarusian attack but it’s more likely than not that Lukanhesko will be facing a full blown revolt/mutiny on his hands if he does attack and Putin would be forced to send men and resources he can’t afford to spare into Belarus to either prop Lukanhesko up or to make sure whoever replaces him doesn’t kick Russian troops out of the country

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507194081671274499

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507291138759303171

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1507416421881585672

Oh my gosh, I take back what I said. Are…are they retreating?!

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1507422608970629124
They are! 🇺🇦

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1507168351696605187