Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Footage of Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol being abducted by armed masked gunmen early today.

Looks like "Russian Justice" reinforces some of the reports from even shortly before the Russian Invasion & Occupation of Ukraine about the "hit lists".

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1502329659471585282?s=20&t=2k_c8Ni0jkWh3...

CNN report:

The mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, was seen on video being led away by armed men from a government building in the city on Friday, and the prosecutor's office for the separatist Russia-backed Luhansk region now says they are weighing terrorism charges against him.

Fedorov's detention by the armed men is the first known instance of a Ukrainian political official being detained and investigated by Russian or Russian-backed forces since the invasion began.

According to a message on the Luhansk prosecutor's website, Fedorov is being accused of assisting and financing terrorist activities and being part of a criminal community.

The Luhansk prosecutor's office claimed that Fedorov was a member of the "Right Sector." CNN has previously reported that the group is a Ukrainian nationalist paramilitary and political group that operates in Ukraine. It has an anti-Russian stance, but independent observers say it’s not the fascist threat that Russian President Vladimir Putin claims it to be.

The prosecutor's office claims "Right Sector" has conducted terroristic acts against civilians in the Donbas region without providing any details.

Local media, citing conversations with the Melitopol City Council, confirmed that the man being led away in the video was Fedorov.

CNN has geolocated and verified the authenticity of the video.

CNN has not been able to identify an attorney for Fedorov on the charges.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-11-22/h_722529676279d7b0f3933d94b6cbbca4

[Meclazine for Israel]

Putin loses Taikwondo Black Belt and Judo belt accreditation from international martial arts associations.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563951/World-Taekwondo-revokes-Putins-honorary-black-belt.html

Now that is harsh.

[emailking]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

Words can’t describe how poorly Brandon screwed up. He would sell his grandchild to Putin if asked to.

That's horrible dude.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like this coming Sunday might be potentially some of the largest Anti-War Demos Russia has seen yet....

No wonder that Putin is banning various social media accounts as leaks from the War are starting to hit the home front.

Aleksei A. Navalny, the most prominent domestic critic of President Vladimir V. Putin, called on Russians to take to the streets on Sunday to protest the war in Ukraine. “You need to go to anti-war rallies every weekend, even if it seems that everyone has either left or got scared,” said Navalny, who is serving a sentence in a prison near Moscow. “Even if you are alone — you are the one who can be joined by someone,” he said in a post on Instagram.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

Update from OVD which has been tracking and supporting Anti-War protests from within Russia. (Was worried they had been shut down under the new authoritarian press rules in Russia, but found some other stuff they had posted just yesterday which I needed to translate into English.

Repression Update from the Russian Underground

As of Friday evening, the most discussed issue in Russia in connection with anti-war protests was an initiative launched from the Prosecutor General's Office to declare Meta an extremist organization. This is due to the fact that Meta has lifted restrictions on hate posts against Russian occupiers of Ukraine.



When and if Meta is recognized as an extremist organization, the very existence of an account on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp will become a criminal offense. Facebook is already blocked in Russia, but many people use it via VPN. Instagram is probably the most popular social network in Russia and is a major tool for small businesses who sell their products through it. WhatsApp is the most popular messenger in Russia. Therefore, it is possible that Meta's activities will not be deemed extremist and that the Russian authorities will not see this policy through.



Anti-war protests have been less in number and intensity over the past two days, due to the fact that they are working days. But a steady stream of news about detentions and trials for holding solitary anti-war pickets, distributing leaflets or writing related messages on walls hasn't stopped.  People have been fined tens of thousands of rubles or have been sentenced to 5-15 days in a detainment center. They are accused of violating laws concerning holding mass events, disobeying the police or new articles on discrediting the actions of the armed forces.



The latter article is also used to prosecute people for publishing articles on social media. The other day, we learned of a Moscow-based employee of the Rostec State Corporation who was forced to quit her job because of her anti-war Instagram stories. A priest in Kostroma was fined 35,000 rubles for preaching against the war.



There are also individual cases of acquittals in Russian courts: a doctor in Ufa, who mounted a solitary picket against the war, and a Turkish citizen accidentally detained in Moscow whom the police mistook for a participant in an anti-war rally.



Some of the detainees face serious issues: in Ulan-Ude, an activist was hospitalized. He was given 15 days in jail for broadcasting an anti-war rally on 24 February. Since March 3, he has been on a hunger strike.

https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/02/russian-protests-against-war-ukraine-chronicle-events

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1501999152728846339
👀

[Storr]

...how?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502507662709305353?s=20&t=UHW3l5llV0T...

[CumbrianLefty]

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

Did they, though?

It is fairly well known that Stalin originally intended a full scale invasion, and even had a Finnish "puppet government" ready to install (as in the Baltic states around the same time)

And the war united a Finnish populace who had previously been bitterly divided as a consequence of the civil war that followed their independence - the Soviets did not expect this and it shocked them.

People can easily draw parallels to the present situation.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FlauschAudio/status/1502630380301598722

[Meclazine for Israel]

Polish man charged with raping 19 y.o. Ukrainian women trying to flee her home country.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10605567/Man-49-arrested-Poland-rape-19-year-old-refugee-promised-help-shelter.html

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Polish sexual predators and Romanian human traffickers casting their eyes over a refugee population that is predominantly young women and children.

Dirty ol' European men at the border in Romania are being warned off by the Police after offering women free rides.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-12/human-trafficking-fears-as-refugees-flee-war-in-ukraine/100905686

"Advice to women was being given at the border by police, he said, including making sure they kept their phone batteries charged and that they write down the number plates of cars they get into."

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Silent Hunter]

I don't know about the actual war, but Ukraine is comprehensively winning the battle for public perception. One of my sayings is "Perception is nine-tenths of a war" - if Russian soldiers think they're losing, they'll be more reluctant to fight.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Repeat after me. Complete. Waste. Of. Sperm.

[ugabug]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[Person Man]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Makes it that much easier to get a NFZ going.

[Torie]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone know the state of play here?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

[Torie]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

Yeah, it seems like nothing or if the attacks are on NATO soil, it is WWIII.

[dead0man]

Yeah, I'm not sure the point of that statement either.  If they attack a train depot at border town in Poland, it's on like Donkey Kong.  I can't see them doing that.  Especially with how poorly it's going for them.

[Storr]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

Yeah, it seems like nothing or if the attacks are on NATO soil, it is WWIII.

U mad Russia?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502640144309964805?s=20&t=BHnGEFVy2lg...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

Which, incidentally, seems like it would be the real hiccup in the fighter deal. How do you get planes from Ramstein Airbase to Ukraine without flying them into Ukraine?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

Which, incidentally, seems like it would be the real hiccup in the fighter deal. How do you get planes from Ramstein Airbase to Ukraine without flying them into Ukraine?

You take the wings off and truck them in (maybe you could tow them in intact?) or let Ukrainian pilots fly them from Ramstein without munitions.

[Silent Hunter]

Yeah, I'm not sure the point of that statement either.  If they attack a train depot at border town in Poland, it's on like Donkey Kong.  I can't see them doing that.  Especially with how poorly it's going for them.

Przemyśl has multiple depots and stations. It also has 60,000+ inhabitants before you add all the refugees coming through. So, they'd gave NATO a casus belli without actually doing that much - destroying railways is hard in any event.

[Inmate Trump]

I haven’t been following this thread very closely so forgive me…

Is there any legitimate concern this could end up being WWIII?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1502523065581854723

[Middle-aged Europe]

I haven’t been following this thread very closely so forgive me…

Is there any legitimate concern this could end up being WWIII?

Define "legitimate concern".

Is it at this point possible? I guess so.

It it at this point likely? I guess not.