2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Good morning, everybody!

The day(s) ahead will most certainly be filled with thrills, spills, and everything in between.  It is a great honor to be able to spend it with you guys.  Whether you're a MAGAfan, a Biden Backer, or something else altogether, I've learned so much from so many of you during this cycle and I've made so many new Atlas-friends.  And thank you all for putting up with my terrible attempts at humor and my sh**t-eating grin plastered under every one of my posts.  

If you're voting in-person today or you're just going to be out and about, PLEASE PLEASE be safe -- in both a civil and a health sense. COVID-19 aside, remember that we're also in cold and flu season.  

Everybody please take care of yourselves in a mental sense, too.  This is a contentious, stressful, and nerve-wracking time for ALL of us. It goes without saying, but it's okay to take a break.  It's okay to close Atlas, turn off the TV, get away from Instagram or Facebook or Twitter.  There will be time for chattering, arguing, and number-crunching later.  

Okay y'all! Let's do this thing! Oh, and as for my final prediction: Biden wins, 290-248.

Lezzgo! Election Day is here!

------

P.S.  To get your election day started with some *epic* music, here's a track called "Mutiny on the Sea".  Some of you may recognize it as the bumper music that CNN used during its coverage of the Brexit referendum in 2016.  

Mark Petrie - Mutiny on the Sea:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBEN4Ao4sXM

CNN Brexit Intro:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp4ldgl2C44

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just talked with my apartment neighbor who got back from voting.  

He said that there was a woman that had to fill out a provisional because her mail-in ballot was never sent.  Apparently, the poll worker asked one of the others "hey, (name), where do we put provisional ballots once they're filled out?"

Ah, way to be prepared, PA.  

According to him, turnout was high and the line -- though long -- was moving quickly.  It was also the first time he'd ever filled out a paper ballot instead of using a machine.  He was asked to either keep the pen with which he filled out his ballot or drop it in a disposal box near the door.  Hope y'all invested in BIC. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Happy election day everyone. Unfortunately my plan to work through today to make the time go by fell through, as I am home sick. Hopefully it's just a cold, which is what my gut is telling me. I'm awaiting results of a COVID test. I'm glad I voted early this year!

Wishing you the best of health, Horsemask!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

The Wizard's election map is...something else:

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323109933357957121

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Does anybody have any insight into when AZ is expected to report its in-person numbers?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A nifty tool, this

Might be the most British-thing that will be said today

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

Not kidding: it would substantially increase the value of the house. Documents with actual presidential signatures on them are auctioned for thousands upon thousands of dollars.

"Yo, you think you're hard with your Antiques Roadshow-ass FDR-signed letter? I've got a whole signed house." 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

They said Pittsburgh area, which is more than just Allegheny. I have no doubt that Biden will improve over Hillary in Allegheny.

I'm very curious what the margin in Westmoreland ends up looking like. Obviously no way Biden wins there, but I do think he could get over 40% of the vote on a good night.

I feel that's the key for him in SW PA...just reduce the margins by a decent amount. Don't lose counties by about 40 points like Clinton did.

Yup.  It's a bit like in the solid states: you don't even need to get close -- any movement in your favor is beneficial.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Day has been flying by.  Some five hours before the polls close in KY.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

Oh, this is just getting started! Wait until the first batch of exit polls - some probably fake - are circulated on Twitter around 4-5PM EST. Then people will start misconstruing those to fit their preconceived narratives too!  

"Damn, Biden's losing the Victoria's Secret employee vote.  Not trying to be pessimistic but this is bad."  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

Huh.  That's strangely...cogent for Trump.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So....who the numbers look good for so far?

Depends on who you ask.  

No, seriously.  It literally depends on who you ask.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think one of the only things that we can say for sure is that "low-turnout models" need not apply.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

You think this makes it easier for Biden to win?

Oh I just relay the fun-facts, Ferg.  You want the next door on your left for actual analysis.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For the poster asking about Sarasota (I'm sorry, I totally forget who it was): the county hasn't been shy about giving a good chunk of its votes to a Democrat.  

Even though no Democrat has won it since 1944, Obama lost the county by around 8% (2012) and 0.10% (2008).  Clinton lost it by 4% (1996) and 8% (1992).  

It's a hard-GOP county, but not necessarily by staggeringly large margins.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Purple County, this might be a bellweather to who wins Florida
https://twitter.com/DavidGoodhue/status/1323691508126633985

Fun Fact: Monroe was the only FL county that split between DeSantis and Nelson in 2018.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

R gains in FL seem to be stalling, and if M-D ED vote is going Dem, an overperformance among NPA voters seems to be the only viable path left for Trump there.

Which is DEFINITELY not where he wants to be -- having to rely on a group where you're unsure if they'll swing your way. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/peteralexander/status/1323702137772277761?s=21

This is IRL supervillain henchmen-language:

"There were some....complications..."

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We don't know how independents will split or how many crossover R/D voters there will be, so I'm trying not to read anything into these numbers.

No, but we can make some educated guesses based on polling.

The official slogan of Atlas!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

After 27 pages or so, what’s the gist of how Election Day voting is looking for Biden?  Any reason for me to doom, or is it looking good for us?

I'll give you the standard answer:  it depends on who you ask and what sources you're viewing. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

With the latest AZ update (bad news for Trump), AZ flipped from Trump to Biden on PredictIt

What update was that, Panda?