2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[UncleSam]

Trump flipped Mahoning county.

Honestly I am not convinced that Biden is going to win PA or WI. I do think he will win MI, and I definitely think he could win the other two. But Trump is winning massively in places he didn't even win in 2016.

Biden's whole thing was that he was going to re-flip these areas, and he is at best doing slightly better there. Where he's doing way better is in the West, Colorado and Arizona in particular.

[UncleSam]

Do you not realize there are 375K ballots outstanding in metro Atlanta and Trump is up 87K votes? I feel like you are just ignoring the data and willing Trump to win lol.

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

There’s like 150k ballots left total in the state, where are you getting 375k from?

[UncleSam]

I really hope James wins just so the GA runoffs don't have any impact on who controls the Senate.

Looks like Peters will win narrowly? I think there's a counting error in Antrim that will help James but pretty sure there's just enough vote left in Detroit to swing things to Peters anyway (plus possibly some Grand Rapids city vote to boot).

[UncleSam]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

Do we know how many outstanding votes there are in Wayne and Grand Rapids?

Antrim is obviously a counting error that will favor Rs by around 7k net votes when it's corrected.

[UncleSam]

Can someone point me to the MI-SEN result showing Peters ahead? I'm still seeing James ahead by like ~7k (with Antrim still to fix its' error).

[UncleSam]

It is concerning that no one seems able to determine how many votes are left to count.

If they don't know how many votes are left to count despite polls being closed for more than a day, how can they possibly know whether the vote has been fair.

Yaaaa they should be required to release vote totals on election night everywhere then, if they allow late-arriving mail ballots, release how many came in to each precinct on each day. It’s crazy that this isn’t standardized.

[UncleSam]

While there's obviously not been any serious fraud, it is really, really bad that it is taking these urban centers so long to count votes. Plenty of places in the country count all their votes on election day, including many millions of votes. It does undermine faith in the system when one candidate is leading and votes exclusively for the other candidate come out of a big urban center gradually in a trickle over several days.

I think this is something that should be bipartisan in fixing - doesn't everyone want the votes to be counted in a more orderly fashion? There's no reason Biden should've had to wait days and days to declare victory, and it does nothing but sow dissent and allow Trump to promulgate falsehoods to have places like Detroit, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Las Vegas hold off on counting their votes for days upon days before declaring 'oh btw all the votes were for Biden lul'.

I do understand that Michigan and Pennsylvania had no VBM counting previously and that the coronavirus made things uniquely difficult in this election, but that's really no excuse and doesn't even apply to Arizona or Nevada or Georgia. California is also a really awful culprit of just being completely incompetent at counting votes and is basically the main reason why I don't personally support a NPV - if places could count votes in a reasonable time and with some accountability to a federal agency (or with some kind of SSN national registry of voting) then I'd be much more receptive to the idea. I'm sure I'm not alone on that either - the reality is that there will be millions and millions of Americans who have very little faith in our system as a result of how long these places are taking. There's just no excuse for it.

[UncleSam]

Are the military ballots likely to be upwards of 60% Dem?

No, military ballots skew R. They're basically all that's keeping Trump alive in GA once Clayton drops the rest of its' vote.

[UncleSam]

Are the military ballots likely to be upwards of 60% Dem?

No, military ballots skew R. They're basically all that's keeping Trump alive in GA once Clayton drops the rest of its' vote.

But it’s not all military ballots, also other abroad voters which skew Democratic, plus military has trended away from Trump this year.

Does being a massive D hack and thus always wrong in one direction ever get tiring lol

Yes there are some overseas D-leaning votes but in general the overseas votes will skew R, as they always do. They might not skew R massively and I wouldn't expect Trump to get more than 1-2k out of them, if even that. If Biden is only ahead by a few hundred when Clayton drops tonight, however, they could very well flip it back.

Not like it really matters since PA is obviously Safe Biden at this point, so GA / AZ / NV literally don't matter at all. Biden is the President-elect.

[UncleSam]

Didn't see this coming:

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1325285860393295873

Kushner / Ivanka were always the most reasonable of the Trumps.

[UncleSam]

Didn't see this coming:

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1325285860393295873

Kushner / Ivanka were always the most reasonable of the Trumps.

Not even 12 hours out & the revisionist history of this era already begins to emerge.

Literally what are you talking about. This has been a standard take for the last four years lmao

[UncleSam]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).