2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

With MI and WI called, a summary of what's left of interest:

AZ - Biden leads, has been called by Fox and AP but nobody else, considerable number of votes left to count.  Next update: 9pm EST tonight.

NV - Biden leads, remaining ballots look favorable to him.  Next update: 1pm EST tomorrow.

PA - Biden trails, but will likely lead after all absentees are counted.

GA - Biden trails, but is making up ground and is possibly on track for a narrow win.  Next update: 6pm EST tonight.

NC - Biden trails, but has an outside shot of overcoming Trump's lead with remaining votes.

So if Biden wins PA or any two of the others, he wins the election.

[Alben Barkley]

Michigan is a sigh of relief.

But PA is still an unknown, as is Nevada and Arizona (neither are a guarantee just yet).

Maybe so but the odds of Biden losing ALL of them plus GA are not great to say the least.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

[TopShelfGoal]

https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

And Twitter hasn't marked it as misinformation, even after thousands of Rts.

Guess it's ok if it helps the Libs tho

How does this help the Liberals? The only thing it does is cause panic among the Ds which is definitely not helping.

[Bootes Void]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

There might be 2 runoffs in Ga

[Agafin]

So this is a bit random but Alaska had a huge batch of votes dropped and Trump seems to maintain a 30% lead there. Things can still change obviously as there's 44% of the vote left to count but that seems like a massive swing to Trump from 2016. Seems like his minority overperformance extends to inuits/alaska natives.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

There might be 2 runoffs in Ga

I think this is more likely than not at this point.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324098639749406720

[Ljube]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

There might be 2 runoffs in Ga

I think this is more likely than not at this point.

It would be a disaster.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

And Twitter hasn't marked it as misinformation, even after thousands of Rts.

Guess it's ok if it helps the Libs tho

 do you want some cheese with that whine?

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

And Twitter hasn't marked it as misinformation, even after thousands of Rts.

Guess it's ok if it helps the Libs tho

I guess so. Stay mad.

[Red Velvet]

Even if it’s not a good election for democrats at all, it must be quite a humiliating defeat for Trump. He’s losing to a guy with no message other than being “Not Trump”. Trumpism is popular and it’s here to stay but the force of Anti-Trumpism is even stronger.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What if Biden gets the Sabato map?

[Podgy the Bear]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

Assuming both Senate races in GA make the runoff (and I think they will), the one difference this year is Raphael Warnock.   The black vote in January will be off the charts.  I doubt voters are going to split their tickets.   And I don't see Collins voters getting out in full force to get out and vote for Loeffler.  

This is quite doable.

[ultraviolet]

In the last 1% reported in PA, Biden made up 0.4 points. Trump now leads by 5.3 with 84% in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

There might be 2 runoffs in Ga

I think this is more likely than not at this point.

Imagine if we somehow manage to win both the runoffs.  I know we probably won’t, but it’d be pretty epic.  Not impossible - especially if Biden flips GA - but obviously unlikely.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

Notably, Kern and El Dorado have flipped back to being Republican. I think that CA’s usual pattern might not be accurate this time because CA can now start to process mail-in/drop-off ballots before Election Day, so a lot of those super-Dem numbers we saw at the tail end of counting may have already been accounted for.

[Astatine]

Does NC have any chance of going Democratic, even narrowly? 95 % of the votes reported, Trump is leading by 78k and it seems like the remaining votes come from areas favorable towards Biden (Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Orange, Forsyth)?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol

Assuming both Senate races in GA make the runoff (and I think they will), the one difference this year is Raphael Warnock.   The black vote in January will be off the charts.  I doubt voters are going to split their tickets.   And I don't see Collins voters getting out in full force to get out and vote for Loeffler.  

This is quite doable.

Again; keeping my expectations low but if Democrats do end up with a trifecta after all this it would be so funny

[Alben Barkley]

Even if it’s not a good election for democrats at all, it must be quite a humiliating defeat for Trump. He’s losing to a guy with no message other than being “Not Trump”. Trumpism is popular and it’s here to stay but the force of Anti-Trumpism is even stronger.

That’s just not true.

I do think Hillary Clinton is owed an apology though. Biden corrected basically all the mistakes of her campaign that people criticized her for and still might just barely win. Clearly, beating Trump is not the cakewalk people thought it should be.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(NYT) - Trump down to +5.3 in PA (3,118,163 - 2,798,232 : 52.0 - 46.7) with 84% of the vote reported.  

[ObamaMichael]

Yes, but very small chances. The real prize could be GA.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does NC have any chance of going Democratic, even narrowly? 95 % of the votes reported, Trump is leading by 78k and it seems like the remaining votes come from areas favorable towards Biden (Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Orange, Forsyth)?

Yes, but it's a longshot. The remaining ballots are expected to skew heavily D, but we don't know how many ballots will arrive late

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.