WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

If she gets an opponent like Sean Duffy or Sheriff Clarke then she should be OK. Only against someone like Mike Gallagher would she be in trouble.

[Tekken_Guy]

FEC refilings mean nothing, just a method to continue raising money.

This. Also I expect Steil to make a similar filing soon.

[Tekken_Guy]

A candidate like Gallagher and Steil would probably make it a real race by turning back the clock in WOW and doing well in their respective districts. Someone more Trumpy would probably be easy pickings for Baldwin.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593657087887671296
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594801765802614784
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594800509293953024
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594761670257086464
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593257874423050240
Bryan Steil is it then?

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1596630057258143744

Those don't really confirm or deconfirm anything.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1356707873171009536

I nean, here's Ted Budd filing for re-election in February 2021. Keep in mind that it had been known for years that Burr was retiring in 2022. Surely this means he's not going to run for Senate, right?

Right?

[Tekken_Guy]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are old news at this point and are likely never running for elected office ever again.

My guess is that he's trying to pull a Cory Gardner and waiting for spring 2024 to scope out what the environment's going to be like. (Furthermore, my guess is that there's a lot of possible Republican recruits who are going to wait and see who the presidential nominee is before making a decision; a majority of the congressional filing deadlines are after the presidential Super Tuesday.)

This makes sense. If Trump's the nominee again that increases the likelihood Steil loses the primary.

With Gallagher having taken himself out of the running to challenge Baldwin in 2024 the most likely Republican Nominee will be Brian Steil and he would be a darn good Candidate, an A+++ Candidate if Daines can convince him to run.

There is no chance that Gallagher runs now given the newly established China Select Cmte.

I think Steil was initially expecting Gallagher to go for it with him planning on waiting for Johnson's seat to open up. Looks like the reverse is going to happen.

Hey, things change all the time in senate races. Reschenthaler got pushed out of the '22 PA race by Parnell and then again by Oz. Stephanie Bice was clearly planning on Inhofe serving out his full final term.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are old news at this point and are likely never running for elected office ever again.

I don't know about Walker, actually; he still endorses in random Wisconsin primaries and campaigns for people all the time, including state legislative guys, and I don't think that behavior makes sense unless he wants to come back himself at some point. (OTOH, Walker is someone who believes really deeply in the ideology of the Republican Party and per everyone who knows him he has since, like, early childhood, so maybe for him it's out of a sense of duty, but if a normal politician behaved the way Walker is we'd all suspect he's keeping the door open to a comeback).

It seems like he's just settling in as the ultimate kingmaker of Wisconsin Republican politics rather than an actual candidate himself. If he did really want a comeback then why didn't he go for a rematch with Evers this year?

I could very well see him getting into a DeSantis cabinet though.

[Tekken_Guy]

@Tekken_Guy,
I don't think you can wait until after Super Tuesday in Wisconsin to decide whether to run for Senate. Filling Deadline to get on the Primary Ballot is much earlier I think.

Republicans have 3 credible Candidates: Gallagher (likely out), Steil and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

Vos is not going to give up his extremely powerful speakership just to run for Senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Clarke is basically the WI Arpaio. He has no goodwill left in WOW that he had when Obama was president, and he’s not really that known in the driftless area.

[Tekken_Guy]

GOP nominee Sheriff David Clarke it is, then!

Umm, Tom Tiffany?

[Tekken_Guy]

Clarke should be easier to beat in the primary than Kari Lake in Arizona. He’s not as popular with GOP primary voters as he used to be and will probably depend on a more rural coalition to win the state. Dan Kelly won with that coalition but it was a close one,

[Tekken_Guy]

2022 was a major scare for a lot of potential Republican nominees — Barnes was quietly written off, and if even he can come within a point of beating one of the best-run GOP campaigns of the cycle in a D trifecta midterm, it’s not hard to see why many are pessimistic when it comes to unseating Baldwin. You add to this the unexpected Evers sweep, the SC race, big legislative wins, the power of the Trump endorsement (potentially career-ending even for skilled candidates) and one of the most robust D organizations of any D state party in the country, and it’s clear why many on the GOP side are opting against a run here.

If there’s any Biden state Ds should be worried about, it’s Nevada. I also agree with Vosem (and it’s long been one of my "bold" takes) that PA isn’t really notably less competitive than WI for PRES or SEN.

Nevada shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Sure Sisolak lost, but after the Senate race slipped from their fingers I wouldn’t bet on Republicans winning here.

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

He’s not in until he officially announces.

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

Yes thats why we have Senator McCormick of Pennsylvania

The NRCC didn’t really intervene in the 2022 primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

[Tekken_Guy]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Mike Gallagher or Scott Walker

Gallagher could potentially beat Baldwin, but Walker absolutely would lose.

Gallagher will likely run when Johnson retires but I doubt Walker will ever run for public office for the rest of his life.