2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1318623610148429827

Iowa
Presidential: Tied
Senate: Greenfield+3 (no change)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1318619731142770690

Biden+7

[Ferguson97]

If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?

Yes. Obama was a black, you see, and therefore 40-45% of the country hated him.

No. Biden is an old, angry, white, cis-male, you see. Therefore 40-45% of the Democratic Party already hates him.

This is a delusional statement

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1320470460975534080

Biden+1
Warnock+5
Ossoff/Purdue TIED

[Ferguson97]

The NYT TX poll will be released tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern.

Tied

[Ferguson97]

Georgia: Biden+1
Texas: Tied
Wisconsin: Biden+7

[Ferguson97]

PA: Biden+6
WI: Biden+7

[Ferguson97]

GA: Biden+2
FL: Biden+3

[Ferguson97]

Marquette: Biden+8
Monmouth: Georgia - Biden+1

[Ferguson97]

The last Monmouth poll of Georgia was conducted Sep 17-21.

They use that weird high turnout/low turnout model: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ga_092320.pdf/

Among registered voters they had Trump+1, and when they applied "high turnout" it was Trump+2 and with "low turnout" it was Trump+5

[Ferguson97]

We haven't had a good Ohio poll in forever. Nothing post covid or first debate...

[Ferguson97]

We haven't had a good Ohio poll in forever. Nothing post covid or first debate...

fox news poll not good?

Oh they did, nvm. 538 had an old poll at the top and I just assumed it was the most recent.

[Ferguson97]

NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +2

Monmouth (FL): Tied

Qpac (FL): Biden +2
Qpac (PA): Biden +8
Qpac (OH): Trump +1
Qpac (IA): Biden+1

[Ferguson97]

IA-Selzer: Trump+1, Greenfield+1

PA-NYT/Siena: Biden+7
FL-NYT/Siena: Biden+3
WI-NYT/Siena: Biden+9
AZ-NYT/Siena: Biden+4, Kelly+8

PA-Monmouth: Biden+6

[Ferguson97]

That Selzer result was soul crushing

[Ferguson97]

That Selzer result was soul crushing

um, why lol

Ernst ahead by 4

[Ferguson97]

Geez, seriously, why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

They're gold standard

[Ferguson97]

My god... sounds like the Siena polls are going to be ugly too.

I read it exactly the opposite -- Cohn is saying Biden is doing well in the upper Midwest.

Yeah, I think the Iowa poll is ugly but I don't know how you read "bad news" from Cohn's tweet

[Ferguson97]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

[Ferguson97]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

I wish you weren’t being sarcastic.

I am not being sarcastic.

Ok then spill.

I will not spill the full results publicly because the person who leaked them to me asked me not to do so and I respect those requests. All I will say is that the movement in PA/FL is within the margin of error.

I'll take this to mean they're underwhelming for Joe

[Ferguson97]

Emerson prediction

NC: Biden+2
GA: Biden+1
FL: Trump+1
TX: Tied

[Ferguson97]

Trump is now in command IMO. I told you that as Election Day approaches, the polls would shift towards Trump. I’d be very concerned if I were a Biden supporter.

I hate that you are right.

LOL