Canadian Election 2019

[mileslunn]

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

[mileslunn]

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

[mileslunn]

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years

Depends on what type of minority:

1.  Liberal Minority 2-3 years.  NDP will be broke and depending on how they do may even involve a leadership convention so won't want to bring down the government too quickly.  May pledge to support them for a full four years with certain conditions, but Trudeau has the upper hand so could ignore them.  Tories won't support them, but may abstain if their poll numbers aren't great and if Scheer resigns (unlikely since if he gains seats probably gets a second chance) will wait until new leader is in.

2.  Conservatives win plurality of seats, but Liberals form government with support from NDP and maybe Greens - at least 2 years maybe full four.  In this case will probably want an iron clad guarantee from opposition to support for certain time period and in turn the NDP and maybe Greens will probably have certain conditions in exchange for support.  I am thinking for NDP, promise to implement universal Pharmacare will be one.  They want won't to pull the plug until fully implemented as risk Tories would cancel it if they win, but once fully implemented too risky to undo.  Tories will stomp their feet and complain how it is an illegitimate government, but won't be able to bring it down.

3.  Conservative minority - 1-2 years - This will happen if Liberals + NDP + Greens fall short of 170 seats and need to rely on BQ or Trudeau decides to resign and let Scheer govern (latter seems unlikely, but I put it in just to cover all bases).  In this case Liberals and NDP won't bring down the government until they have a full war chest and in case of Liberals until they have a new leader in place, so will abstain on confidence matters, but once those are in order will bring them down.  Also like Harper, opposition parties make take turns abstaining since if it requires all them to bring them government down, so Scheer just has to hope one of them has lousy poll numbers as parties rarely bring down a government if their polls tell them they will lose seats.

[mileslunn]

Actually if Tories win plurality we are in unchartered waters so while I think it would probably mean Liberals staying on its tough to say for sure.

In the past usually there haven't been as stark an ideological divides so Liberals or NDP were able to let Tories govern without angering their bases too much, but with today's polarization not sure that could work.  At the same time everytime a second place party formed government, it was to remove a government that had been in power for a very long time, i.e. Ontario 1985, BC 2017, not for a party to stay on especially one with an approval rating down in the 30s. 

Either way I suspect Trudeau will be asked by the media if his party doesn't win the most seats will they try to form government so if he says yes or maybe one can argue he will have a mandate, if he explicitly rules it out but then does it, it will look really bad.  I think not only will his answer give us many clues, but also could influence how people vote and likewise I suspect his will be tactical.  If internal polls show there is a strong desire to get rid of the Liberals, but some unease about the Tories, he will probably say no as saying yes will just increase chances of Tory majority, but if polls still show it tight either way he may leave the door open.  On the other hand ruling out is probably the best strategy simply to motivate his supporters to show up.  If you frame it that Liberals must beat Tories in seats, more likely supporters will show up and more likely NDP and Greens will vote strategically, whereas if you frame it as we just need to stop a Tory majority, progressives are probably less likely to vote strategically so more vote splits which helps the Tories.

[mileslunn]

I can guarantee you that if the last Ontario election had yielded 60 PCs under Doug Ford and say 38 Liberals under Wynne and 30 NDP under Horwath - as much as the NDP would rather have preferred to eat crushed glass than prop up such a discredited Kathleen Wynne - there is no way that Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath would have allowed Doug Ford to take power knowing how much damage he would do.

That is probably true, although think if Brown, Elliott, or Mulroney were leader they would have.  Scheer is more polarizing and disliked more by the left than those two but not hated as much as Doug Ford who pretty much everyone outside the base hates.  I also think had that scenario emerged NDP would have demanded Wynne's resignation and Liberals choose a new leader as a price which they just might do with Trudeau so involves changing PM, but not Tories winning.

[mileslunn]

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

[mileslunn]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

[mileslunn]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.

[mileslunn]

Has there been any TV debates scheduled between the candidates for Canadian PM ?

There will be but most likely in September, our campaigns are usually only five weeks.

[mileslunn]

Usually you keep running until you lose, decide to jump before being thrown, have serious health issues or worse. King is the only elected PM who left voluntarily and popular. Pearson left sorta voluntarily while unpopular. Since Freeland, the only contender who currently has mass appeal, is roughly Trudeau's age and extremely loyal, why not stay as long as he can?

That assumes polls recover.  With how low they are now pretty sure they will be worse in 2023 thus I think Trudeau would have good reason to make next term his last.

[mileslunn]

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?

If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

[mileslunn]

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?

If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.

I think he will, up until his run for Tory leadership race never said much on supply management, but his opposition to supply management will probably hurt him in the riding as his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in the country.  He could win, also could split the vote to allow Liberals to come up the middle, but most likely is Tories regain it.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I agree Erin O'Toole would have been a better compromise candidate and if Scheer doesn't stay on, I think he has a good chance, although Lisa Raitt being deputy leader and getting a lot of attention will probably do a lot better.  Her biggest challenge is her riding is rapidly growing so no guarantee she will hold her seat.  Looked safe a few months ago, but now is vulnerable.

As for Scheer staying on, I think if the party gains both votes and seats, he should be fine, especially if a minority government as the party will want to be ready if government falls.  If the party loses ground then he is probably toast.  What direction they go in will be interesting.  If Bernier's PPC gets over 5% and costs them a whole wack of ridings, expect the party to swing rightward to scoop up those votes, while if PPC flops and they lose due to inability to appeal to centrist voters, expect them to move closer to the centre.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 

Depends on results.  If the Tories gain both votes and seats but fall short, than I think Scheer is safe, but if the party loses seats I think there will be a lot of pressure on him to resign.  I also think if Tories gain everywhere but Ontario, you could see things get interesting.  Not enough to push Ford out right away, but probably will see some organizing there and MPPs more emboldened to go against him.

[mileslunn]

I always take riding polls with a grain of salt.  I think using a whole bunch of them to get overall average perhaps and sometimes they tell you something, after all Mainstreet showed a three way race in Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 provincial election with NDP narrowly ahead and although NDP came up support, they almost won that riding and that is not a riding they generally perform well in.  On the other hand, they've had some pretty big misses such as Nanaimo by-election or last BC election, showed BC Liberals narrowly ahead in when they came in third and BC Liberals 20 points ahead in Surrey-Fleetwood which they lost by 18 points.  Another big miss was Forum showed Liberals winning Brandon-Souris by-election by 30 points and Tories narrowly held on. 

Every election you get a few shockers, but generally best way to figure out target seats is look at past federal and provincial results.  If a party has never even been competitive in a certain riding or they won it many years ago but haven't been competitive in recent elections (i.e. Tories in Toronto-St. Paul's or NDP in Yorkton-Melville are examples of this) they probably aren't going to win it unless a party is polling at record heights (see NDP in Alberta in 2015) in which you will see them win some of these. 

So in sum any riding where the Liberals didn't win or have a strong second in 2015 are probably not winneable.  For Tories any riding that hasn't voted Tory in last decade either provincially or federally or they haven't had a close second is also off the table and even there, there are some ridings in 2011 they won and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall.  For NDP, unless a major surge, I think you can apply same rule but ignore those that went NDP in Quebec in 2011 (those they won elsewhere are doable in most cases), Alberta in 2015 provincially, and Ontario ones 2018 where NDP never came within 10 points in any other election save that since 1990.

[mileslunn]

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

[mileslunn]

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.

Also with all the cuts and much of the Ford Nation tending to be lower middle income, there is the question whether that group still supports him or no longer does.  Either way I suspect Tories to do better in Etobicoke North than 2015 even if they drop province wide, but the gap was almost 40 points and don't see them closing that completely.

[mileslunn]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Yeah and approval in low 20s is pretty disastrous.  Only reason second least popular is McNeil's are in the teens but Ford's approval ratings are low enough basically Scheer needs to hope Ford doesn't feature too prominently in the election or he is toast while Trudeau needs to hope Ford does play a promote role as that is his ticket to a second term.

[mileslunn]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.

His brother had more personal problems than he does, but had a certain level of likeability Doug Ford lacks and also his brother was good at responding to constituency concerns whereas Doug mostly just rides of his coattails.  Also the kind of austerity Ford is introducing provincially would be tough to do municipally as you don't have political parties municipally so cannot whip votes thus much tougher to adopt policies as unpopular.  Nonetheless I think its a combination of cuts and his personality causing low approval ratings.  Even without cuts his approval rating would likely be in only the 30s and likewise if it were someone more likeable doing the cuts, their approval rating would be negative for sure, but not quite as bad.

[mileslunn]

Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12

Looking at Mainstreet's two polls which are Niagara Centre and Whitby, my thoughts are as follows off course considering their history of riding polling is not great.

Liberals: Good numbers and if they can hold those will likely be re-elected, question is just do they win another majority or only minority.

Tories: Not ideal for forming government, but not terrible either as a 5 point jump would be enough to a minimum give a strong minority or even majority.  After all Doug Ford last year got 5 and 7% better in those ridings respectively.

NDP: Disastrous numbers although Niagara Centre is only one they've ever won, Whitby unlike Oshawa is not one I would expect them to win, even in a good election.  Still Liberals will hope the NDP stays where they are whereas Tories probably hope they rebound a bit.

Just for comparisons of past elections:

For Niagara Centre, Liberals haven't gotten as high as 43% since 2000 and haven't provincially for at least 40 years.  In Whitby, 39% is below what they got last time, 2004, and only 1% above what they got in 2006 when they lost, mind you that was at the height of the sponsorship scandal so even if English Canada votes same way as in 2006, Liberals will win due to much better showing in Quebec.  It's also well above what they got in 2008, 2011 and recent provincial elections

For Tories, 30% for Niagara Centre is actually not that bad.  Well below the 39% they got in 2011 and below Ford's 37%, but only 2% below what they got in 2008 which was a strong minority, and 1% above what they got in both 2015 and 2006.  In Whitby, 41% is slightly below 2015 at 42%, but also only 2% below what they got in 2006, but 9% below 2008 and 18% below 2011.  Provincially also only 5% less than they got last year thus if they stay there don't form government, but jump 5%, they win big in Ontario and likely form government thus why a 5% swing in Ontario makes a huge difference in seats whereas in Alberta wouldn't matter much.  I also think when Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott were running, you have to consider personal appeal as I suspect both got some personal votes and with a generic Tory candidate probably would have not done quite as well.

[mileslunn]

Ekos has some interesting #'s out.  Quite a shift, especially in Ontario for one week, but could be statistical noise.  It is summer and I've found in summer polls tend to be a little over the map, probably due to lower response rate as many are on vacation.

Nationally

Decided Federal vote intention

Weighted Total:992
Total:995
Liberal Party30.6%

Conservative Party36.0%

New Democratic Party9.9%

Green Party12.9%

People's Party3.8%

Bloc Quebecois4.6%

Another party not listed here2.2%

Ontario

390
402
33.8% LPC
+
35.8%CPC

9.5% NDP

13.2% GP 

4.5% PPC
----
3.2% Other
+

4.89

Quebec

232
156
36.7%LPC
++
24.3%CPC
----
6.9%NDP

10.2%GP

2.1%PPC

19.7% BQ
++++
0.0%
--

7.85 MOE

[mileslunn]

Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.

Exactly although Robinson running probably improves chances of Tories winning it due to stronger splits on the progressive side, but still would give Liberals edge.  He is from Burnaby and when he was MP his riding was only on the Burnaby side, didn't include North Shore which outside Lonsdale area is hostile territory for NDP and always goes Liberal or Conservative.  For starters if this riding existed provincially, the BC Liberals would have won it in 2017 and I cannot see NDP winning anything in BC that would have gone BC Liberals provincially.

[mileslunn]

Forum is out with a July poll and while last year's numbers were suspect, these seem more in line with others.

CPC 34%
Lib 31%
GPC 12%
NDP 12%
PPC5%
BQ 5%

On regionals, Tories have big lead in Alberta, Liberals ahead in Quebec by 11 points, Liberals lead by 5 in Ontario, by four in Atlantic Canada, while Tories ahead in BC thanks to strong splits on left.  Interesting tidbit is leadership approval ratings.

Trudeau is 34% approve vs. 55% disapprove so normally leaders with these numbers lose.  But Scheer's are no better at 27% approve and 48% disapprove thus its really about who do you dislike less not who do you like more.  Elizabeth May once again only one with positive approval ratings.

Nanos has an interactive map like Forum based on a sample of 73,000 since April

https://www.nanos.co/nanostimemap/

It shows seat wise, Tories have 103 seats they are ahead by over 7 points, Liberals 109 seats, NDP 11 seats, BQ 5 seats, Greens 3 seats, while 28 seats are within 2 points and 79 seats within 2-7 points.  One interesting thing is they show Liberals leading in Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies which considering history of the riding and general trends I find that hard to believe.  Sure Bob Zimmer is a bit nutty, he is the guy who wants to make the weapon most often used in mass shootings, AR15 non-restricted, but I doubt many pay too much attention to that.  Atlantic Canada interesting as New Brunswick largely painted blue, while Nova Scotia solidly red even rural areas.

EDIT: the Map is from April so a bit dated but at least a good starting point.  If you are willing to pay over a $1,000 you can get a detailed one, but I just subscribed to the weekly numbers.  Note you can still get party power, best PM, approval, and vote consider for free and those are often good indicators in themselves.

[mileslunn]

Luc Fortin revealed some Tory internals on local radio today. Grits lead in 3 Dipper QC ridings unsurprisingly, but specifically, REB is at 9% in Berthier-Maskinongé, Grits lead a 4-way race in Jonquière and bigly in Longueil-Saint Hubert, with Nantel at 5%.

What were Tory and BQ numbers like in those ridings?  Yes surprising how low  REB is mind you this area went solidly CAQ provincially so not exactly favourable NDP terrain.  Their best hopes are in areas QS did well.

[mileslunn]

New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.

Not a total surprise.  While Tories tend to do well in Quebec City region, this riding has always been a struggle for centre-right parties, even provincially it went QS, not CAQ so a Tory pickup here was always a longshot.  Has lots of civil servants, people in tourism industry, and students, all groups that tend to generally lean left.  The other Quebec City ridings are more suburban thus more favourable for parties on the right.