Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

In the inner city ridings, looks like Liberal/NDP switchers represent about 20% of the electorate. 

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/RobynUrback/status/1125922786826964993

[xelas81]

This is an absolute masterpiece in banality:

It sounds like it is suppose to attack Trudeau for being too moderate. It doesn't make much sense for Tories to attack Trudeau in this way, unless they realized that they pretty much maxed out their support, and only path to win a majority is to split the non-tory vote. But I don't think that is the case here though.

[StateBoiler]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

[beesley]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

Not surprised to hear it. Windsor used to be a lot better for the Liberals, but it's turned against them hard recently.

[RogueBeaver]

JWR talks to Kinsella, saying she's remaining in federal politics and will announce her intentions soon. Will finish telling her story if the gag's lifted, presumably by a Scheer government.

[mileslunn]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

[lilTommy]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.

[beesley]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.

I suspect they'll have trouble holding it anyway, but at least there's a chance of them holding it now. Desnethe seems as if they still have some small chance, but I'm not sure how strong they'll be in Saskatoon West (wouldn't rule the NDP out though.) The Conservatives have a good chance in all three.

[Jeppe]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

[mileslunn]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.

Natives in Canada have soaring birth rates, and are undergoing a baby boom right now. MB and SK are around 15-20% native, and that will get much higher in the future.

[LoneStarDem]

Has there been any TV debates scheduled between the candidates for Canadian PM ?

[mileslunn]

Has there been any TV debates scheduled between the candidates for Canadian PM ?

There will be but most likely in September, our campaigns are usually only five weeks.

[beesley]

Given the speculation on a future successor to Trudeau, it would be interesting to see which Cabinet Members will be defeated in October.

Highly likely to be defeated:
1. Karina Gould (Burlington)
2. Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton Mill Woods)
Strong chance of defeat:
3. Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha)
Possible chance of defeat:
4. Mary Ng (Markham-Thornhill)
5. Bernadette Jordan (South Shore-St. Margaret's)
6. Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre)
7. Filomena Tassi (Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas)
8. Ralph Goodale (Regina-Wascana)
9. Carla Qualtrough (Delta)
10. Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South)
11. Bardish Chagger (Waterloo)
12. Ahmed Hussen (York South-Weston)
Defeat unlikely:
13. Jean-Yves Duclos (Quebec)
14. Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Moncton Riverview-Dieppe)
15. University-Rosedale (University-Rosedale)
16. Patty Hajdu (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
17. Seamus O'Regan (St. John's South-Mount Pearl)
18. Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver)
19. Jim Carr (Winnipeg South Centre)
20. Marie-Claude Bibeau (Compton-Stanstead)
21. Diane Lebouthillier (Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine)
Defeat very unlikely:
22. David Lametti (LaSalle-Emard-Verdun)
23. Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre)
24. Joyce Murray (Vancouver-Quadra)
25. Francois-Philippe Champagne (St Maurice-Champlain)
26. Bill Blair (Scarborough-Southwest)
27. Melanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville)
28. Pablo Rodriguez (Honore-Mercier)
29. Carolyn Bennett (Toronto-St. Paul's)
30. Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
31. Navdeep Bains (Mississauga-Malton)
32. Laurence Macaulay (Cardigan)
33. Marc Garneau (Notre Dame de Grace)
34. Dominic Leblanc (Beausejour)

Clearly most of the cabinet will stay on, and either way, most of the losing ministers would be either junior ministers (like Gould and Ng) or unlikely leaders (Sohi and Qualtrough)

[LoneStarDem]

Big question is whether Trudeau (if he survives this strong challenge) leaves office in 2023 after 2 terms as Canadian PM ?

[LabourJersey]

Big question is whether Trudeau (if he survives this strong challenge) leaves office in 2023 after 2 terms as Canadian PM ?

That's gonna depend a lot on the political context of that election and Trudeau's own popularity. I'd be really surprised if he makes it to early 2023, though.

[King of Kensington]

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

[RogueBeaver]

Usually you keep running until you lose, decide to jump before being thrown, have serious health issues or worse. King is the only elected PM who left voluntarily and popular. Pearson left sorta voluntarily while unpopular. Since Freeland, the only contender who currently has mass appeal, is roughly Trudeau's age and extremely loyal, why not stay as long as he can?

[mileslunn]

Usually you keep running until you lose, decide to jump before being thrown, have serious health issues or worse. King is the only elected PM who left voluntarily and popular. Pearson left sorta voluntarily while unpopular. Since Freeland, the only contender who currently has mass appeal, is roughly Trudeau's age and extremely loyal, why not stay as long as he can?

That assumes polls recover.  With how low they are now pretty sure they will be worse in 2023 thus I think Trudeau would have good reason to make next term his last.

[adma]

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

[beesley]

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.

[adma]

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.

Actually, FWIW, keep in mind that the ONDP won Toronto Centre last year with 54% and a 2:1 margin over the Libs.  It doesn't mean Morneau's absolutely *endangered*; but it also doesn't mean the NDP's incapable of "putting up any fight" (at least generically speaking; but if Jagmeet turns out to be an AudreyAlexa case, then...)

And as far as Burlington goes, *it's* not all that "right-leaning populist", either--in fact, the Tory-strength pattern there is more a continuation of Lakeshore-stockbroker-belt patterns from Oakville and Mississauga-Lakeshore; that is, the kind of "more PC than ReformAlliance" demo that found "Paul Martin Liberalism" to its liking.  And while the OLP did worse there (third place) than in Oakville and M-L last year, so did the Tories in victory--yes, a victory is a victory; but in a PC-majority election, 40.45% was actually quite a *low* share relative to riding history--and two points less than their losing federal figure in 2015.  IOW Burlingtonians weren't *completely* sold on Doug Ford; and it's the kind of riding in which a backlash to Ford could conceivably damage fed Con chances this time.  (Though a reason why Burlington may *appear* more right-populist than it is, is that it's home to the Crossroads/Yes media network--but that doesn't make it a Colorado Springs type of place; there's too much of a "Different Drummer Bookstore" countervailing Laurentian-elite element.)

[Continential]

How did Singh become NDP leader in the first place.

[RogueBeaver]

JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.