Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189196 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #550 on: July 10, 2019, 10:26:56 AM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

This especially now that the progressive vote has become more divided. It would be interesting to see how Scheer's leadership would fare if the Tories took 20ish seats from the Liberals, and the Liberals maintained their majority at the expense of the NDP and Bloc, but that looks unlikely now.
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DL
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« Reply #551 on: July 10, 2019, 10:49:16 AM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Its less about the raw seat count than it is about what consensus develops about how Scheer campaigned. In Mulcair's case, if he had run a campaign that New Democrats felt good about and he had performed well in debates etc... and was seen as having lost due to forces beyond his control - he would have easily been confirmed as leader. Instead, he was widely review as having run a dull, demoralizing campaign and as having made a series of really bad strategic decisions that cost the party dearly. On top of that he showed no contrition and had absolutely nothing to say about what he would do differently in the future so as not to repeat the same mistakes. On top of that, since by all accounts Mulcair was a really unpleasant person with a miserable personality - there was no "reservoir of good will" towards him in the party. No one ever really liked him as a person in the first place.

With regard to Scheer, if he is seen as having campaigned reasonably well and he does a competent job in the debates and he gains some ground but loses the election - and the consensus is that he lost largely because of a backlash against Doug Ford in Ontario - then he can probably live to fight another day...Harper lost in 2004 and still got to stay as CPC leader. If on the other hand, Scheer falls flat on his face in the campaign and is seen as having been a major liability to his party and he makes a lot of enemies within the party - that is a different story and then there would be pressure on his to quit. But is ANYONE in the Tory party going to regret that they picked Scheer as their leader instead of Maxime Bernier???
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136or142
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« Reply #552 on: July 10, 2019, 05:00:58 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2019, 05:07:54 PM by 136or142 »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Its less about the raw seat count than it is about what consensus develops about how Scheer campaigned. In Mulcair's case, if he had run a campaign that New Democrats felt good about and he had performed well in debates etc... and was seen as having lost due to forces beyond his control - he would have easily been confirmed as leader. Instead, he was widely review as having run a dull, demoralizing campaign and as having made a series of really bad strategic decisions that cost the party dearly. On top of that he showed no contrition and had absolutely nothing to say about what he would do differently in the future so as not to repeat the same mistakes. On top of that, since by all accounts Mulcair was a really unpleasant person with a miserable personality - there was no "reservoir of good will" towards him in the party. No one ever really liked him as a person in the first place.

With regard to Scheer, if he is seen as having campaigned reasonably well and he does a competent job in the debates and he gains some ground but loses the election - and the consensus is that he lost largely because of a backlash against Doug Ford in Ontario - then he can probably live to fight another day...Harper lost in 2004 and still got to stay as CPC leader. If on the other hand, Scheer falls flat on his face in the campaign and is seen as having been a major liability to his party and he makes a lot of enemies within the party - that is a different story and then there would be pressure on his to quit. But is ANYONE in the Tory party going to regret that they picked Scheer as their leader instead of Maxime Bernier???

No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I think the main problem Scheer has is the Conservative echo chamber and the expectations this leads to.  it seems to me that most Conservatives genuinely believe that virtually all Canadians agree with them that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is 'destroying Canada', that the carbon tax is nothing but a 'tax grab' and that Canadians are just waiting to throw the Liberals out in virtually every riding in the next election.

I'm not even sure that holding the Liberals to a minority or even winning the most seats in a minority but remaining in opposition would satisfy most Conservatives.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #553 on: July 10, 2019, 05:07:41 PM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.


No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I agree Erin O'Toole would have been a better compromise candidate and if Scheer doesn't stay on, I think he has a good chance, although Lisa Raitt being deputy leader and getting a lot of attention will probably do a lot better.  Her biggest challenge is her riding is rapidly growing so no guarantee she will hold her seat.  Looked safe a few months ago, but now is vulnerable.

As for Scheer staying on, I think if the party gains both votes and seats, he should be fine, especially if a minority government as the party will want to be ready if government falls.  If the party loses ground then he is probably toast.  What direction they go in will be interesting.  If Bernier's PPC gets over 5% and costs them a whole wack of ridings, expect the party to swing rightward to scoop up those votes, while if PPC flops and they lose due to inability to appeal to centrist voters, expect them to move closer to the centre.
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DL
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« Reply #554 on: July 10, 2019, 06:46:13 PM »

FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG
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beesley
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« Reply #555 on: July 10, 2019, 07:57:22 PM »

FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #556 on: July 10, 2019, 09:53:52 PM »

FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.

The idea of the noxious, hyperpartisan Pierre Polievre as Prime Minister should convince all sensible Canadians against voting Conservative.
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DL
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« Reply #557 on: July 11, 2019, 09:50:21 AM »

I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #558 on: July 11, 2019, 09:52:07 AM »

I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.
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beesley
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« Reply #559 on: July 12, 2019, 12:11:53 AM »

I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe his first name was originally Peter but he had it changed.
I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.

Yeah. Neither of them have great French skills.

Two interesting GTA things for you.



Markham-Stouffville seems to be one of the York ridings trending to the CPC the least, so this should be a good race.



This is just the 416 - making it an awful result for the NDP, who had 8 seats here in 2011. The CPC could gain Scarborough Agincourt and York Centre.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #560 on: July 12, 2019, 06:36:15 AM »

For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?
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beesley
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« Reply #561 on: July 12, 2019, 09:48:44 AM »

For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?

Not the exact figures but:

Lib 52
Con 25
NDP 18
Green 2
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #562 on: July 13, 2019, 10:50:09 AM »

Ok, so probably enough to pick up York Centre, but otherwise fortress Toronto should hold.
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UWS
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« Reply #563 on: July 13, 2019, 11:00:45 AM »

Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37

I knew it that Scheer was not invincible.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #564 on: July 13, 2019, 02:34:51 PM »

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.
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UWS
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« Reply #565 on: July 13, 2019, 04:45:25 PM »

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.
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beesley
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« Reply #566 on: July 13, 2019, 05:44:37 PM »

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.
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adma
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« Reply #567 on: July 13, 2019, 07:45:14 PM »

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #568 on: July 15, 2019, 08:28:49 AM »

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)

The question for Laurier-Sainte Marie is how much will the NDP drop in East Montreal. The Liberals absolute best result on this seat was in the high 30's, and they've struggled to break 25%, even in good years in Quebec. If the NDP collapses, I suspect the Liberals will win it, but if they hold up at all, I'd actually consider Guilbeault's candidacy a point in the Bloc's favour; splitting the urban progressive vote and letting the Bloc come up the middle.
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DL
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« Reply #569 on: July 15, 2019, 10:24:16 AM »

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #570 on: July 15, 2019, 11:29:05 AM »

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.
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Continential
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« Reply #571 on: July 15, 2019, 12:29:16 PM »

Who will succeed Singh?
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DL
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« Reply #572 on: July 15, 2019, 05:52:46 PM »

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

Beaulieu’s riding would be sort of a Montreal equivalent of Scarborough Southwest. Laurier Ste. Marie more like A Montreal version of Davenport
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adma
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« Reply #573 on: July 15, 2019, 06:19:36 PM »

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

Beaulieu’s riding would be sort of a Montreal equivalent of Scarborough Southwest. Laurier Ste. Marie more like A Montreal version of Davenport

I think Boulerice's Rosemont is more Davenport-y.  Laurier-Ste Marie *might* be a bit more like Toronto Centre, complete with gay village, a Regent Park/St James Town-esque element in Jeanne-Mance, and a Ryerson/George Brown element in UQAM (and I feel safer saying that now that Suze Morrison's been elected provincially).

The thing to remember about Duceppe is that he was byelected in the first place as a sort of pre-Bloc independent-nationalist NDP/social-democrat proxy.  And he electorally sustained himself within his constituency by being on the Bloc's left, until he was "out-lefted" by the Orange Crush.

It's all an echo of how the Franco-cultural-class urban left used to be the heart and soul of the provincial PQ, but have these days decamped for QS.  And as for the Bloc, its current "base" is probably more about so-called suburban disgruntlement than urban progressivism--and in some ways, I'd even suggest that La Pointe-de-l'Île relative to Beaulieu probably has more in common with Etobicoke North relative to Doug Ford.

(Then there's the remaining NDP seat, Hochelaga--if Beaulieu's seat is SSW, Hochelaga's Beaches-East York.  At least, if one blew out the Beaches on behalf of a gigantic Olympic stadium or something)
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Jeppe
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« Reply #574 on: July 15, 2019, 07:03:17 PM »


I'd like to see Ruth Ellen Brosseau, given that she's re-elected this October.
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