Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th) (user search)
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  Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)  (Read 149014 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: October 02, 2022, 02:56:55 PM »
Can someone link to the results page?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2022, 03:00:04 PM »

Thanks!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2022, 03:17:29 PM »
Globo's map not loading...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2022, 03:34:53 PM »
So the Globo map is just never going to work huh
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2022, 03:48:57 PM »
Okay f**k it. Is there a place I can find the 2018 results by municipality, to compare with the municipalities that reported now?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2022, 03:57:52 PM »
Quote from: Shilly on October 02, 2022, 03:51:36 PM
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 02, 2022, 03:48:57 PM
Okay f**k it. Is there a place I can find the 2018 results by municipality, to compare with the municipalities that reported now?

Should be here.
http://especiais.g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

Found it. I randomly clicked around on a bunch of municipalities and in most of them Lula seems to be ahead of Haddad's second round result. Though there's a lot of weirdness.

We'll see, but I have to imagine Lula will at least pull ahead. We'll see if that's enough to win in the first round though.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2022, 04:12:33 PM »
10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2022, 04:18:39 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on October 02, 2022, 04:15:33 PM
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 02, 2022, 04:12:33 PM
10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these.

Sure.  But as you recall Haddad fell far short of 50% of the vote in 2018 or else he would have become Prez in 2018.

No sh*t
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2022, 04:21:17 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on October 02, 2022, 04:19:39 PM
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 02, 2022, 04:12:33 PM
10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.

Is that average figure margin shift/swing (of ~5 points), or Lula's vote share increase (i.e. a ~10-point shift)?

Percentage change. So yeah, if you'd put it in swing terms that'd be around ~9 points. But there's no reason to do so since what we're looking at here is percentage, not margin.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2022, 04:25:27 PM »
It is incredibly frustrating that the Globo map doesn't show how much of a municipality's vote is actually in. I have no idea if what I'm looking at is the full vote or a narrow sample.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2022, 04:29:26 PM »
Quote from: The sun never felt so bright on October 02, 2022, 04:27:22 PM
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 02, 2022, 04:25:27 PM
It is incredibly frustrating that the Globo map doesn't show how much of a municipality's vote is actually in. I have no idea if what I'm looking at is the full vote or a narrow sample.
Uh, why not just use The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/oct/02/brazil-election-2022-live-results-bolsonaro-lula-da-silva

I was looking for a map by municipality, not by state. Thanks though.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2022, 05:20:57 PM »
States with over 60% of votes counted:

Distrito Federal (92%): Lula +6.79 from Haddad 2R
Espirito Santo (89%): Lula +3.27
Mato Grosso do Sul (84%): Lula +3.09
Tocantins (76%): Lula -1.79
Paraná (65%): Lula +3.56

So if these results hold we are looking for Lula around 48% or so nationwide.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2022, 05:30:11 PM »
F**k, I really need to go to bed. I was really hoping most of the vote would be in by now. Oh well.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2022, 02:28:14 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 02:32:03 AM by NUPES Enjoyer »
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 02, 2022, 05:20:57 PM
States with over 60% of votes counted:

Distrito Federal (92%): Lula +6.79 from Haddad 2R
Espirito Santo (89%): Lula +3.27
Mato Grosso do Sul (84%): Lula +3.09
Tocantins (76%): Lula -1.79
Paraná (65%): Lula +3.56

So if these results hold we are looking for Lula around 48% or so nationwide.

Called it when 35-40% of the vote was in nationwide and Bolsonaro was still leading by 3-4 points. Not bad.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2022, 02:42:17 AM »
Looking at the polling trendlines, Lula ended up exactly as expected, while Bolsonaro overperformed by around 7 points. So it seems like he swept the undecideds and got the votes of a few people who said they'd vote third party (Gomes underperformed by 2 points and Tebet by 1). Perhaps because of a social desirability bias against telling pollsters you support Bolsonaro? Brazilian posters let me know if that's a thing.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2022, 05:01:50 AM »
Quote from: DavidB. on October 03, 2022, 04:20:57 AM
Brazilian pollsters should take this as a lesson to not take "undecided" for an answer or at the very least not count them as "part of the 100%".

I mean, if they hadn't counted them as "part of the 100%" there would have been more polls showing Lula over 50%, which would have made the polling miss look much worse optically. I think showing the undecided share is actually the sounder thing to do methodologically too, as it implies a greater degree of uncertainty.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2022, 05:56:06 AM »
Quote from: Mike88 on October 03, 2022, 05:48:25 AM
In the congress elections, Bolsonaro allies seem poised to hold on to a majority, although very, very slim:

Chamber of Deputies:

  99 PL
  59 União Brasil
  47 PP
  41 Republicans
  12 Podemos
258 Bolsonaro allies (50.3%)
  80 PT
  14 PSOL/REDE
  14 PSB
108 Lula allies (21.1%)
  42 MDB
  42 PSD
  18 PSDB
  17 PDT
  28 Others

Senate:

13 PL
12 União Brasil
  7 PP
  6 Podemos
  3 Republicans
41 Bolsonaro allies (50.6%)
  9 PT
  1 REDE
  1 PSB
11 Lula allies (13.6%)
10 PSD
10 MDB
  4 PSDB
  2 PDT
  1 Cidadania
  2 Others

I think that the allies numbers seem correct, but feel free to correct them if there's some mistake in a party support Smiley

Eeeesh. That is brutal.

Of course afaik Brazilian party allegiances are rather fluid and usually elected Presidents manage to cobble together a governing majority regardless of nominal ideology. But still, this is a pretty bad signal that while Brazilians have likely rejected Bolsonaro, they haven't rejected right-wing politics at all.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2022, 05:23:13 AM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on October 06, 2022, 04:14:55 AM
Quote from: Pivaru on October 05, 2022, 04:03:00 PM
New ipec poll, first poll of the second round:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43%
Blank/Null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 55%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%

In case anyone is curious to how this compares to the pre-first round polls, looking at the last Ipec poll before the election, Lula fell 1 point in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes. Bolsonaro rose 6 points in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes.
Adjusting for a similar error in real votes would yield Lula winning 50-49.
Scary perspective.

Given that the first round's error was entirely asymmetrical (Lula was right where the polls expected), the expectation should be no more than half of it in the runoff. And that's if pollsters haven't adjusted their methodology in response to the first round already.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2022, 05:18:20 PM »
Quote from: HidingCommentary on October 10, 2022, 04:49:58 PM
Quote from: jaichind on October 10, 2022, 12:35:15 PM
Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied



I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

It looks like they're doing some overly aggressive trendline extrapolation. I wouldn't take this too seriously.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2022, 03:39:46 PM »
Two areas have already counted most of their votes. DF is at 90% with Bolsonaro winning by 18 (he won by 15 in the first round). Tocantins is at 70% with Lula winning by 4 (he won by 6 in the first round).

So if that holds nationwide Lula should win by 3 points or so.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2022, 04:52:39 PM »
The counting bias seems to be a bit different from last time, so I wouldn't necessarily celebrate yet (and it looks like it will be in the 51-49 range either way) but thank goodness Lula is probably winning.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2022, 05:53:42 PM »
Well glad the absolute worst outcome has been avoided. Still, not exactly a result to fill us with confidence about the future. We'll see how things go in the next 4 years, I guess (hoping Bolsonaro doesn't do a coup).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2022, 07:06:20 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 30, 2022, 07:00:42 PM


"I always thought that God was very generous to me, to leave where I left and get where I got to. Especially at this moment, when we are not facing a candidate, we are facing the state machine placed at the service of the candidate in the situation."



"I consider that I had a process of resurrection in Brazilian politics. They tried to bury me alive, and now I'm here to rule the country. In a very difficult situation, but I am sure that with the help of the people we will find a way out and restore peace."



"We have reached the end of one of the most important elections in our history. An election that put two opposing projects of country face to face, and that today has a single and great winner: the Brazilian people."



"This is not a victory for me, nor for the PT, nor for the parties that supported me in this campaign. It is the victory of an immense democratic movement that was formed, above political parties, personal interests and ideologies, so that democracy would win."



"On this historic 30th of October, the majority of the Brazilian people made it very clear that they want more – not less – democracy."

The Brazilian people are truly fortunate to have such a dedicated public servant and friend of the working people leading them. Many countries could only dream of a leader of his caliber.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2022, 07:22:00 PM »
Quote from: Real Populism Has Never Been Tried on October 30, 2022, 07:16:32 PM
What strikes me as the most interesting thing is that Lula only flipped one state and despite it swinging by 12 points.

Brazilian geographic polarization makes the US look like a normal country.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2022, 07:33:32 PM »
Quote from: CookieDamage on October 30, 2022, 07:31:22 PM
Why did Bolsonaro win Rio De Janiero?? I thought that was a fairly left-wing city

Lots of Pentecostals, apparently. Pentecostals are turning into the QAnon of Brazil.
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