UK Election 2010

[pragmatic liberal]

It looks now though like the Lib Dems WILL finish third, probably with something like 25-27% of the vote. Labour's suppose looks to have shored up a bit, and they'll probably finish somewhere between 28-30% of the vote, while the Tories will probably get about 35%, give or take.

It's interesting whether this is *better* for the Lib Dems or not. On the one hand, they want very much to be able to argue that they deserve big concessions, and coming in second is key to that. But because of the distribution of votes, if they push Labour into third, that likely benefits the Tories and pushes the combined Lab-Lib seat total below the number needed for a coalition or pact.

I think they're best off if they can just barely beat Labour, with both of them scoring in the high 20s (i.e. 28-29%), enough that they can claim second, but not enough that Labour's seat total completely crashes letting the Tories in.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh my god.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So Simon thinks Gordon is a bit pitchy, does he?

[Verily]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYFdXiS-wdM&feature=player_embedded#!

Good Tory election video. It...angers the blood

It's interesting that they refer to Labour as "New Labour" in the description and in the video, but not in the title.

Labour under Brown has nothing in common with Blair's New Labour.

Are you suggesting that that's a reason to like Labour?

[Tuck!]

How do our bright minds assess the chances of Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North? She made a great showing in 2005.

[Verily]

How do our bright minds assess the chances of Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North? She made a great showing in 2005.

Actually a rather poor showing in terms of swing directly to the Conservatives--almost all the swing was Labour to Lib Dem despite the LDs being in third. (The LDs are quite strong on Portsmouth council.)

But she should nonetheless easily gain the seat, although in the long run that seat will be quite vulnerable to the LDs during a Conservative government, assuming LD local strength continues to whittle away at Labour's Westminster strength (not guaranteed, although it will be quite difficult indeed for Labour to rebound in Portsmouth from being reduced to 2-3 local councillors).

[Tuck!]

How do our bright minds assess the chances of Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North? She made a great showing in 2005.

Actually a rather poor showing in terms of swing directly to the Conservatives--almost all the swing was Labour to Lib Dem despite the LDs being in third. (The LDs are quite strong on Portsmouth council.)

But she should nonetheless easily gain the seat, although in the long run that seat will be quite vulnerable to the LDs during a Conservative government, assuming LD local strength continues to whittle away at Labour's Westminster strength (not guaranteed, although it will be quite difficult indeed for Labour to rebound in Portsmouth from being reduced to 2-3 local councillors).

I know the swing was mostly to LibDems, unfortunately, but she gained a few points still and, also, came within about 100 votes. It's a prime pick up opportunity IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been some extremely serious internal problems for Labour in Portsmouth, fwiw. Always been a bit of an odd city as far as Labour strength goes; there seems to be a pattern of doing fairly well (though never anywhere near as well as in other cities of a comparable size) followed by collapse (in 1987 Labour polled well under 20% across the city).

[Tuck!]

There have been some extremely serious internal problems for Labour in Portsmouth, fwiw. Always been a bit of an odd city as far as Labour strength goes; there seems to be a pattern of doing fairly well (though never anywhere near as well as in other cities of a comparable size) followed by collapse (in 1987 Labour polled well under 20% across the city).

I am from Portsmouth, but my family is pure Tory. Where in the UK do you reside?

[Verily]

How do our bright minds assess the chances of Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North? She made a great showing in 2005.

Actually a rather poor showing in terms of swing directly to the Conservatives--almost all the swing was Labour to Lib Dem despite the LDs being in third. (The LDs are quite strong on Portsmouth council.)

But she should nonetheless easily gain the seat, although in the long run that seat will be quite vulnerable to the LDs during a Conservative government, assuming LD local strength continues to whittle away at Labour's Westminster strength (not guaranteed, although it will be quite difficult indeed for Labour to rebound in Portsmouth from being reduced to 2-3 local councillors).

I know the swing was mostly to LibDems, unfortunately, but she gained a few points still and, also, came within about 100 votes. It's a prime pick up opportunity IMO.

Well, of course. But it is close enough that a different candidate might well have gained it in 2005; to call her tiny vote gain "strong" is rather amusing. Nothing against the woman; campaigning skills have little bearing on actual policy abilities. And I can't say that she necessarily ran a poor campaign, either, only that the marginality of the seat in 2005 was clearly due to Lab -> LD switching rather than anything else.

Strong candidates and campaigns are ones that substantially increase their vote shares. David Burrowes in Enfield Southgate in 2005 would be a good example of a candidate who "made a great showing" in 2005. (Trying to think of a Conservative candidate who "made a great showing" but didn't gain a seat, but none come to mind, so that comparison will have to do.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been some extremely serious internal problems for Labour in Portsmouth, fwiw. Always been a bit of an odd city as far as Labour strength goes; there seems to be a pattern of doing fairly well (though never anywhere near as well as in other cities of a comparable size) followed by collapse (in 1987 Labour polled well under 20% across the city).

I am from Portsmouth, but my family is pure Tory. Where in the UK do you reside?

Bangor

[Хahar 🤔]

Oh my god.

Can I vote to kill Page 3 instead?

We're having a mock election in school on Thursday and it's actually hilarious (and saddening?) at how much support the Lib Dems have, yet hardly any of their supporters know what they stand for.

Acting like that is a phenomenon specifically for the LibDems is disingenuous. (And acting like people support the LibDems because Nick Clegg looks and sounds nice is just plain patronizing.)

It's also true.

That's extremely patronizing.

Well, voters are stupid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tbh, I'm not sure if 'Simon Cowell says vote Tory' is as good an idea as The Scum seems to think...

[J. J.]

If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

That doesn't make any sense.

The Libs, now the LibDems, have been since the 20's the "third party" of UK politics.  Basically, they are not seen as a group with a real chance of governing.  They were actually spoofed in that regard in the last episode of Monty Python.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Monty_Python%27s_Flying_Circus_episodes#6._Party_Political_Broadcast

In other words, the Libs were seen as a virtual joke or as an out of touch ideological party.  If they come in second, they are not a joke.  Voters will look to them as the legitimate opposition.

[Franzl]

J.J., I understand that argument. Your original sentence still doesn't make sense though.

[Math]

Does anyone know where the raw election data will be available on thursday or friday?

[J. J.]

J.J., I understand that argument. Your original sentence still doesn't make sense though.

Well, Meeker and BRTD didn't so I had to explain it slowly.

If the LibDems come in second, even in terms of popular vote, the may (and I suspect will) be seen as the main opposition party, especially if the Conservatives form a government.

Elections can be about change in some cases, Home in 1964, Callahan in 1979, Major in 1997, and possibly Brown in 2010.  In those elections, people looking for change looked at Lib/LibDem and, even if they liked the party/potential prime minister, also thought that the party didn't have a chance of effecting that change, by governing.  That served as a reason not to vote for them.  Simply put, Lib/LibDem couldn't win.

Now, if it suddenly looks like it could win, that argument goes away.  

Further, some Labour voters, in particular, may decide, in the next election, that Labour cannot win, and vote for the party of change, LibDems.

It all depends on if the LibDems look like they can win nationally.  Driving Labour to third place in terms of the popular vote, would help with that perception, possibly enough to really cut into Labour seats.

[Franzl]

There is a reasonable chance here that the LibDems will become one of the two major parties in the UK.  If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

J.J. !

This is the only thing I'm picking on

[J. J.]

There is a reasonable chance here that the LibDems will become one of the two major parties in the UK.  If Labour come in second in terms of popular votes, the next election could be basically between the LibDems and Tories.

J.J. !

This is the only thing I'm picking on

Sorry, if Labour comes in behind the LibDems. 

[Silent Hunter]

Weather forecast for tomorrow: lot of cloud, rain in Wales, strengthening northeasterly winds.

[Bacon King]

I made a nice and fancy prediction thread if anyone cares to take a shot!

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone know where the raw election data will be available on thursday or friday?

Never.

The British do not release election results by ward, parish/town, etc. Only by constituency.

[Torie]

Does anyone know where the raw election data will be available on thursday or friday?

Never.

The British do not release election results by ward, parish/town, etc. Only by constituency.

Really, they don't release individual polling place data?  All the ballots are mixed up when they are counted?  Do they still do manual counting of paper ballots across the pond?

[minionofmidas]

Yes - as in any place that puts a premium on getting the results right... (and doesn't hold 10,000 elections on the same date).

[Math]

Does anyone know where the raw election data will be available on thursday or friday?

Never.

The British do not release election results by ward, parish/town, etc. Only by constituency.

I knew that, I'm just looking for a link with raw outcomes in the form of a spreadsheet, if possible.