Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[IceSpear]

The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=1101&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[IceSpear]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide. The best Jones has gotten is a small lead in that Washington Post poll.

[IceSpear]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

They're a pretty awful pollster. SUSA is far from perfect, but it is established and credible.

Also, Jones is only up that amount if you assume the electorate that turns out on Tuesday gives Trump a net negative approval rating. I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

[IceSpear]

I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

Now you know why I have no faith in Alabama voters, and why nobody here should either.

[IceSpear]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Now you know how those of us in swing states feel, especially when there's multiple competitive races at once.

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

True, but the Moore campaign is essentially nonexistent. He was in Philadelphia on Saturday for the Army-Navy game!

I'm really glad I don't have any young daughters right now.

[IceSpear]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.

[IceSpear]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Satan (R) over Jesus (D) confirmed.

[IceSpear]

Well to be fair, the answer still partially applies under the assumption of a Jones 2017 win. Jones shouldn't even bother with a hypothetical reelection in a Deep South state Trump is going to get (near) 60% in anyways. That'd just be a big waste of money.

Even if he doesn't win reelection, he will force Republicans to spend money there, so no, not running in 2020 would be silly and could help Republicans in other competitive races. You guys already wrote him off this year, so I would think twice before declaring him DOA again.

He's speaking in terms of turnout.

I doubt there are Republicans who will turn out because of robocalls which are likely confined to Democratic voters. Targeting those is actually the right thing to do, especially in a competitive special election where turnout is hard to gauge.

I doubt I'll get a chance to declare him DOA again.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster.

Since when? Most of their 2016 polls were garbage.

[IceSpear]

Is it me or has IceSpear been conspicuously absent from this thread today?

I'm reading through now, I was at work. Which I'm glad about, because election day threads before the polls close are always the absolute worst, and this one is no exception.

[IceSpear]

How about cooling it with the epithets?  It's just lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in an already crowded thread.

There is no signal in this thread, only noise.

[IceSpear]

Moore +1


PROVE ME WRONG ALABAMA

They'll probably do so by putting a zero after the 1.

lol, nice.

[IceSpear]

I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol