Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

[cp]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Here's the Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/

With 2017-based turnout model:

Jones 46
Moore 46

With higher turnout:

Jones 48
Moore 45

With lower historical turnout:

Moore 48
Jones 44

This could not be more unhelpful at this point.

[Gass3268]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

True, but the Moore campaign is essentially nonexistent. He was in Philadelphia on Saturday for the Army-Navy game!

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

True, but the Moore campaign is essentially nonexistent. He was in Philadelphia on Saturday for the Army-Navy game!

I'm really glad I don't have any young daughters right now.

[Sestak]

FF Gwen Moore:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/364270-dem-lawmaker-calls-for-extra-protections-to-safeguard-senate-pages-if-roy

[LabourJersey]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

If Robocalls are targetted I don't see how that proves the Democrats "really suck". But continue with your narrative

[IceSpear]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.

[IceSpear]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409

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Satan (R) over Jesus (D) confirmed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.

That question has a Jones wins assumption, and if that was a sarcastic answer, it's not funny.

[Sestak]

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

Those voters were never going to vote for Jones in the first place.

He's speaking in terms of turnout.

[Brittain33]

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Satan (R) over Jesus (D) confirmed.

Note that "our new poll" is last Friday's poll, not a new one.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Michael McDonald Retweeted Bridget Bowman
This seems too low to me. I hope Alabama election officials are preparing for higher turnout
 
@bridgetbhc
AL Secretary of State John Merrill says on NPR that he’s expecting  at least 25% turnout in tomorrow’s election #ALSEN
1:37 PM - 11 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/940289520729231361

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

[Virginiá]

Even if he doesn't win reelection, he will force Republicans to spend money there, so no, not running in 2020 would be silly and could help Republicans in other competitive races. You guys already wrote him off this year, so I would think twice before declaring him DOA again.

I mean, Jones winning reelection wouldn't be unprecedented. Examples are more prevalent at the state level, but it's not totally unheard of for a politician to win a seemingly impossible race by the skin of their teeth, only to go on to win comfortably next time around. Granted, I don't necessarily think Jones could do that if he won tomorrow, but I won't rule it out either. Such a scenario that would enable that is Trump getting blown out in 2020 Carter-style, which is at the very least a possibility, given the way things are going so far.

[Matty]

Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

[Santander]

Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Good thing I already sold my Moore shares.

It would be gambling to hold to maturity at this point.

[IceSpear]

Well to be fair, the answer still partially applies under the assumption of a Jones 2017 win. Jones shouldn't even bother with a hypothetical reelection in a Deep South state Trump is going to get (near) 60% in anyways. That'd just be a big waste of money.

Even if he doesn't win reelection, he will force Republicans to spend money there, so no, not running in 2020 would be silly and could help Republicans in other competitive races. You guys already wrote him off this year, so I would think twice before declaring him DOA again.

He's speaking in terms of turnout.

I doubt there are Republicans who will turn out because of robocalls which are likely confined to Democratic voters. Targeting those is actually the right thing to do, especially in a competitive special election where turnout is hard to gauge.

I doubt I'll get a chance to declare him DOA again.

[Former Kentuckian]

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Michael McDonald Retweeted Bridget Bowman
This seems too low to me. I hope Alabama election officials are preparing for higher turnout
 
@bridgetbhc
AL Secretary of State John Merrill says on NPR that he’s expecting  at least 25% turnout in tomorrow’s election #ALSEN
1:37 PM - 11 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/940289520729231361

I hope people won't leave if they aren't prepared.

[VPH]

Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Poll is a total outlier.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

[Pericles]

Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Poll is a total outlier.

Multiple polls have shown Jones with a large lead and Emerson is also an outlier.

[Sestak]

OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

Saw this on Jonah Goldberg's feed a few hours ago. Ridiculous.

[Pyro]

OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

Reprehensible, for all involved.

[America Needs R'hllor]

OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

"Hey, I'm not a pedo! Look, I manage to go through a WHOLE interview with a girl without sexually assaulting her!"
~Roy Moore