2022 College Football Discussion & Pick'em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ed Orgeron is the most wronged coach in history. He earned the USC job and they didn't give it to him. He bestowed Baton Rouge with the most dominant season in sports history in precisely his 4th year at the helm, and this is how he gets treated. I look back at that sixth season with 'if only he had beaten Arkansas in OT and not blown a nine point 4th quarter lead to Auburn' eyes. I honestly don't know if 8-4 with a close loss to Bama would have been enough for these people. He was probably a dead man walking after the defensive performance against UCLA. But how shameful is it that the upgrade is Brian Kelly, the most mediocre coach of our era, who Marcus Freeman will surely outperform at Notre Dame. A 1 point loss to this Florida State team (which was really worse than just a point) is a heckuva lot worse than an 11 point loss to UCLA.

Glad Coach O is enjoying his millions, but I wish he were still gracing the sidelines each week and inspiring the youth over this bum whose most charismatic line was that he wanted to execute them. LSU is going to flop around in mediocrity in the toughest division in the sport for nearly the rest of this decade.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Who wins the Stony Brook @ UMass game?

This is actually an interesting and valid question because SP+ has Stony Brook favored by 6, but I don't believe it. I would believe any other Colonial team sans Hampton, Towson, and perhaps Maine could beat UMass. But Stony Brook seems to be in a downward rut while their peers are getting better.

If they want to make the playoffs, this would be their "7th win" that gets them in. But I don't believe they will get close to that. The Seawolves will start the year 0-6 with heartbreakers here and at Fordham before picking up their first win on October 22nd while hosting a bruised and bus-lagged Maine squad. Perhaps that will initiate a monumental change in fortunes for the back half of the schedule if they stay healthy, but it will be too little too late.

Take the Minutemen to get their lone (?) win of the year (they won't beat UConn though NMSU will be a delight).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

TCU @ SMU Noon EDT ESPNU

No pick.

Running this game must be the only job worse than being an Atlas Moderator.

By the way, you forgot to credit me for UMass on this week's scoreboard. 😘

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Is Illinois for real?

The Illini are now 3-1 after their 31-0 domination of Chattanooga, and with winnable games against Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern still to play, maybe they can make a bowl game this season?

Don't assume the 2 road wins, even though they are indeed more winnable than any home game. They already have a road loss against only marginally better competition.

And they will know how real they are before any of these games are played - they are currently favored against Iowa (congrats Traitor Tom) but not Minnesota on their own turf. We'll see how real Minnesota is this weekend, but it currently ranks harder than Purdue as well (and I'm a Sparry skeptic with Kenny Walker off to blue-green pastures - he was that important to this team).

6-6 is most likely but probably not through any straightforward means with so many tossups on the calendar. Knowing Illinois, 5-7 heartbreak with a final loss at 2-9 Northwestern is my bold pick for disappointment. But by talent level alone, this team will be bowling.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Minnesota may be for real, as they just won at Michigan State 34-7 and are now 4-0.

I'm gonna wait until they play a real team

You'll be waiting until the Big Ten championship game. That schedule is a barrel of laughs. Will be mighty tough for Penn State to wake up for that one, sandwiched between the two games they care about.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Middle Tennessee took down #25 Miami (FL) 45-31.

James Madison destroyed MTSU and had a nice comeback to win in Boone today. In a just world, they would be on the cusp of being ranked. Maybe after their cupcake next week before the schedule heats up almost each and every week.

They won't be bowl eligible due to the transition period but good chance they finish around 8-3 in the Fun Belt, and maybe even better than that.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Ivy League is really struggling in their non conference tune ups. Princeton, Yale, Harvard and now Dartmouth don't look good at all. Penn is doing okay but don't know that they'll keep it up.

After a decade of building up with serious recruits, it all seems to be tumbling back down after shutting it down for the 2020 season. (Strangely, this is the inverse of what happened in lacrosse, where the Ivy League immediately dominated the national conversation in a way not seen in years.)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Two old man complaints:

1) Why are teams not leaving a quality linebacker well short of the first down sticks to spy a QB anymore? The most dangerous play in the sport is clearly a QB draw right now, which I see repeatedly go unstopped even when it's the obvious call. All. Day. Long.

Adrian Martinez on 3rd and 17 with no one in the backfield when Kansas State's one goal is to kill clock. Man, I wonder what is coming? Clear out the defense and immediately find the hole cleared out against a 3 or 4 man rush. This needs a lot of practice or teams needs to find linebackers with enough speed to be able to stop the constant 8-15 yard draws. My own team suffered from this a lot today. Make the offense earn it by actually completing the riskier pass.

2) It seemed a few years ago that teams were semi-frequently going for 2 after scoring down 14 as the math told them to do. Now, I cannot remember the last time I saw this. Oklahoma again did not consider it tonight.


I am relieved one 'giant' is falling after Clemson, Michigan, Oregon (and Kentucky but that's less fun) teased us. But it's really pathetic because they should have completed the comeback, or at least come close if they played it right.

My lone pick in danger was USC, so hopefully that one actually falls too.

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Stephen F. Austin just beat Warner (which I think is Division II) 98-0.

Warner is nothing closing to a D2 quality university. It's an NAIA school and a pretty bad one at that.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://www.si.com/college/2022/09/26/college-football-bowl-projections-schedule-playoff?utm_source=reddit.com Sorry NYE you have been outdone

I'm not sure there's a scenario (barring Alabama losing before the SEC Championship Game) that doesn't have both Alabama and Georgia in the playoff.

Even that won't keep Alabama out since it's 'more likely than not' that they lose an SEC regular season game. 538 implies a 60% chance of that, which nearly aligns with Nick Saban's history of only escaping unblemished through SEC play 5 out of 15 times. And this certainly doesn't look like one of his best five Alabama squads. Arguably not in his top 10.

All the difficult games on the road and all the easy games at home definitely does not help their case for going 12-0.

Fortunately for them, they will still be in the SEC title game with a blemish (and even a 2-loss Alabama team will probably get the 4 seed over, say, 1 loss Michigan or 1 loss Big XII champ). Ole Miss has a tough cross-division draw and three pretty tough road games themselves, so good chance they lose twice outside of Bama. And the rest of the division has no chance with Arkansas shooting themselves in the foot and A&M having to go to Tuscaloosa.

FPI says 85% for Bama to make the playoff (78% for Ohio State; 72% for Georgia). FPI has its problems, but I think that's a little closer to my expectations - at least for Alabama. I'm inclined to say it's a bit closer for Georgia too.

538 is probably more correct for Ohio State though - Michigan may as well be a play-in game.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hank Bachmeier is transferring out of Boise State to retain two seasons of eligibility.

The Mountain West has been a disgrace this year in what should have been its big chance to assert itself as the premier G5 over the Sun Belt. Five schools would probably not be among the top 25 FCS squads (Hawaii, Colorado State and Utah State for sure, plus probably Nevada and possibly New Mexico). San Diego State and now Boise State go from being top 40 teams to probably outside the top 80 or worse.

Fresno State could be the best, but they will not have an FBS win until October 8 at best, so no accolades unless they win out. Shame Air Force lost to Wyoming because they should race through the remaining schedule with ease ("if they can run the ball" - Rick Bo$co) - but the SoS could still keep them out of any New Year's bowls conversations.

What a catastrophe.

Cincinnati could probably sleepwalk their way into the NY6 once the parity in the Sun Belt East beats up on each other all season. Hilariously, Western Kentucky, who was just rejected by both the American and the MAC, is just about the only team that could maybe take their place if there is a slip up.

Six autobids to the playoffs is going to be a real doozy.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hank Bachmeier is transferring out of Boise State to retain two seasons of eligibility.

The Mountain West has been a disgrace this year in what should have been its big chance to assert itself as the premier G5 over the Sun Belt. Five schools would probably not be among the top 25 FCS squads (Hawaii, Colorado State and Utah State for sure, plus probably Nevada and possibly New Mexico). San Diego State and now Boise State go from being top 40 teams to probably outside the top 80 or worse.

Fresno State could be the best, but they will not have an FBS win until October 8 at best, so no accolades unless they win out. Shame Air Force lost to Wyoming because they should race through the remaining schedule with ease ("if they can run the ball" - Rick Bo$co) - but the SoS could still keep them out of any New Year's bowls conversations.

What a catastrophe.

Cincinnati could probably sleepwalk their way into the NY6 once the parity in the Sun Belt East beats up on each other all season. Hilariously, Western Kentucky, who was just rejected by both the American and the MAC, is just about the only team that could maybe take their place if there is a slip up.

I think Coastal Carolina's got the inside track on a New Year's Six bowl, provided they remain unbeaten (and honestly, they should. They get Appalachian State and Old Dominion at home, and their toughest test beyond that, a road game at Virginia is definitely winnable the way Virginia's been playing.)

Good points. @Marshall could be a little tricky but the schedule is not bad. I have just been disappointed by the early season play and those last two games don't sound fun. Harrisonburg will be crazy. Maybe Charlottesville won't be so bad with rivalry week in tow

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1578800214026383360?s=20&t=AxmrtX6nhGkw1...

This gutsy take is amazing. Give him some love!

Even with Dillon Gabriel back, how do they get to six wins in what is now rates as the best conference top-to-bottom? Not a single gimme. They'll need to count on beating a Daniels-less Kansas next week.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

But how shameful is it that the upgrade is Brian Kelly, the most mediocre coach of our era, who Marcus Freeman will surely outperform at Notre Dame.

CC: Cold Takes Exposed after just six weeks; ouch!!!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Rhode Island defeats Monmouth on the road in 7 OTs.

Despite being the 7th/8th highest rated teams in the conference, this was considered the coin flip game in each team's schedule that would determine if they go 7-4 (with a likely playoff selection) or be sitting home at 6-5.

Monmouth can still get to 7-4 by winning at Delaware, but even if they succeed in that sizeable task, there will be a lot of in-conference competition on the bubble from as many as 7 other teams. They can't be optimistic with h2h and bad losses to boot.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Orange Bowl: Syracuse vs Illinois

Syracuse is prohibited from playing in the Orange Bowl due to the unfair advantage they would have over their opponents given that their mascot is an anthropomorphic orange. This is why their last appearance was in 1959 before they adopted Otto.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

My ballot for this week based on first time resume review, trying to account for injuries and closeness of games more than overall record:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Tennessee
5. Michigan

6. TCU
7. Oklahoma State
8. Clemson
9. Wake Forest
10. LSU

11. Texas
12. Oregon
13. Syracuse
14. Ole Miss
15. Kentucky

16. USC
17. Utah
18. Penn State
19. Illinois
20. Kansas State

21. UCLA
22. UNC
23. NC State
24. Tulane
25. Maryland (also considered Liberty and Oregon State)


Not too dissimilar from the AP though I don't think they will jolt LSU up nearly that much. And I find the Cincinnati ranking tough to defend with the last two narrow wins and the loss to very mediocre Arkansas. Maryland has to be ahead of them.

South Carolina will probably get more AP love than Maryland or Oregon State (not sure about Liberty), but I am not buying it. Kentucky without Levis was clearly a different team, so they will need to beat Florida to prove growth from the Arkansas game.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Give this to me with my coffee every autumn Sunday morning for the rest of my life.

https://twitter.com/dadgumboxscores/status/1586778195436908544/photo/1

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Give this to me with my coffee every autumn Sunday morning for the rest of my life.

https://twitter.com/dadgumboxscores/status/1586778195436908544/photo/1

img

This seems flawed... MSU shouldn't be in the Good O Good D category by any stretch

The defense just held dominant Michigan to 5 field goals when most others would have conceded 5 TDs. A P5 team is going to have to be almost unbelievably bad at one or the other to fall outside the box. Just pretend that it the P5 box and divide it into the quarters you yearn to see.

I wrote a friend before the game, 15% chance to beat UM, but <1% chance to beat Illinois based on gut feeling alone. Illinois' surprisingly atrocious offense indicates that may not be true statistically but it just feels like a game MSU will lie down for anyway. Their offense surely isn't good enough to score on Illinois. 23-6.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hugh Freeze should lobby to become an SEC coach by getting Liberty an invite to the conference. They could be a real CFP contender if they got invited.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It does indeed sound like San Diego State is set to become power conference team #70 by joining the Pac 12.

Fresno State, SMU and Boise State are rumored to be in contention for the next addition to bring this to an even number.

I still suspect that this will be all for naught in the long run when they need to backfill six (or more) additional departures with their old mates.


However, in the meantime, should the Mountain West seek additional school(s), there are two key elements to consider to make this work:
1) For football, these departures are from the airport division (i.e., where travel to and from Hawaii is easiest)
2) The conference will be down to 6 or 5 baseball schools and expansion candidates will need a team


Tulsa is a decent football candidate but misses on both criteria. Rice is a great baseball school in a huge city with history, but I think the conference is a downgrade for them in the things that matter. UTSA is a warm body for baseball and ok for travel but lacks the obvious motivation for a lateral move.

The only Big Sky school with FBS potential to sponsor baseball is Sacramento State, which also happens to have one of the biggest football stadiums in the FCS. The timing could be right for them to join the ranks and replace a fellow Cal State program in the MW.

Montana and Montana State are probably slightly more interested in the FBS spots and have more passionate football fanbases and stadiums with the FBS capacity potential. However, neither has baseball and neither airport is more convenient than, say, Albuquerque already is.

There are also questions on whether Idaho could re-transition just as soon as their program found their groove...not sure what they add though.

All options lack basketball strength and imply going all-in on football. Wichita State could save them on that front and also fills the baseball school criterion. Might be a marginal improvement for Wichita over what the AAC has become but neither option looks great.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This week's GameDay hasn't been announced yet, but I have to think it's one of USC/UCLA, Utah/Oregon or Illinois/Michigan (and really, it should be one of the two PAC-12 games).

The entire state of Montana has been pushing for Brawl of the Wild for years. Montana shouldn't have blown so many games this year, it would be easier to beg for if both had one loss. Instead, Montana may miss out on the playoffs if they lose.

They probably have to give the Pac-12 another one, but UCLA has no fans and they won't show up hours from campus at 4AM following a loss to Arizona. So that leaves a second trip to a decent fanbase in Eugene following their eliminating loss. Not ideal.

Brawl of the Wild with all the stakes would be much more entertaining.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

No matter how good Delaware is, no matter how bad Villanova is, this rivalry is the most cursed in all of the land. Delaware has yet another 4th quarter collapse in the Battle of the Blue and just like 2013's surreal game, this will knock Delaware out of the playoffs.

Villanova made up for two muffed punts with two blocked punts to complete the comeback like they did in 1999. After just one garbage time TD in their last two games, the offense sure needed.

15-1 in fall football matches since 2006. Absolute domination rivalling Bedlam. We will miss this when Delaware joins FBS.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

TCU is lucky they got an easy opponent this week and didn't have to play in South Carolina.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Alabama has really got to like their chances. Georgia will murder LSU, Ohio will lay waste to Michigan. The only problem being that the committee will be making their final Michigan vs. Alabama decision next week with no further information provided afterwards. I'm afraid they give it to the 1-loss team despite the awful SoS and them being gifted the Illinois win while Alabama had Tennessee stolen. We shall see.

It seems more likely than not that USC loses to either Notre Dame or Oregon (I'll revise that statement in the unlikely event that the Beavers and Bears allow Washington to sneak in.) TCU is a coin flip to lose, depends which Kansas State shows up. As much fun as we've had watching them this season, the Roulette Wheel always feels like it exposes these teams in Round 12 or 13 in heartbreaking fashion (even though in real life, those streaks always bankrupt the player!) Unfortunately, this conclusion will feel more like the Russian game.

I am deeply afraid that the committee puts Clemson over Alabama thanks to a cupcake crown over UNC, especially if Notre Dame is the team that takes down the Trojans, making their loss more palatable despite their lethargic offense.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Alabama

The playoff that they pretend isn't going to happen. Hopefully Michigan loses by enough that we can get a loveable underdog like Bama in there.