Elizabeth Warren 2020 Megathread v2 (pg 35 - Emily List support)

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First, the enactment of a public option and then, two years later, the passage of a separate bill to achieve single-payer. It signals that Warren believes that only a public option is possible, without requiring her to say so out loud.

In March, she said there were “different pathways” to universal coverage, including expanding Medicaid and a buy-in mechanism.[ She seemed to find her bravery in October, when she released her plan to pay for Medicare for All. Questionable as the proposal was—it relied on a regressive “head tax” of employers, instead of progressive payroll taxes. Within the first 100 days of her administration, she proposes to pass a bill allowing anyone to buy into Medicare.

But Warren can’t possibly believe that 2023—a year after midterm elections that traditionally tend to reduce the number of legislators in the president’s party—would be a more auspicious time to enact a single-payer bill. Her latest proposal, then, is smoke and mirrors, a red herring—any cliche you like. Under a Warren presidency, we would be immensely lucky to see her pass a public option that remains as generous as the one she outlined on her website today.

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If Warren believes that what’s possible is limited to a public option, she should just say so. It would not be illegitimate for Warren to argue that she would rather support a compromise measure that she believes has a better chance of passing—though in that case, she will have to own the substantive inadequacies and diminished public health that arise from that decision. If, however, she actually wants to pass Medicare for All, leaving that project to her third year in office makes no sense—unless the plan is to create an escape hatch from her promise of single-payer. There are two possibilities: Either Warren is naive, or she believes voters to be.

https://newrepublic.com/article/155756/elizabeth-warren-retreats-medicare

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Pete has crossed 20% in NH in the Emerson Poll. He is polling above 15% in most polls of Iowa & NH.

Unless Warren manages to take some from Pete, it will be very hard for her. Sanders' supporters are around 65% committed while that support is around 30-35% for Warren leaving further room for her to bleed support & she is likely not getting any more Bernie supporters.

Warren has lost a lot of supporters to Pete & she needs to get them back ASAP if she wants to have a decent chance.

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Unless Warren manages to take some from Warren, it will be very hard for her.

Warren is doing a very good job of running against Warren.

Pete

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Warren down to 12% in MC Early State Polls (Biden 25%, Bernie 20% Pete 13%). She is now 4th. Nationally she has fallen to 15% but the Early State numbers have fallen much more dramatically & are ominous. While Warren falls 6% in Early States, Pete gets 5%.

Personally I think the fall is likely much more bigger in Iowa & NH with Pete probably gaining 10-12% in both @ the expense of Warren given Pete's poor numbers in NV or SC.

She really has to turn it around soon, possibly ace the next debates.

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Harris was @ 2-3% odd nationally & has very little support in Iowa & NH. Monrning Consult stopped reporting her 2nd choice. Even if Warren gets 30-40% of those supporters, it is a less than 1% bump for her & even lower in Iowa & NH.

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Memo from 1990s pollution case shows Elizabeth Warren in action as corporate consultant

The memo from then-Professor Elizabeth Warren was written on Harvard Law School letterhead, a symbol of gravitas for a scholar renowned as a champion for consumers victimized by predatory banks and other big businesses.But on this occasion, Warren was not arguing on behalf of vulnerable families, nor was she offering the sort of stinging rebuke of corporate greed that would later define her political career. Rather, Warren was representing a large development company that was trying to avoid having to clean up a toxic waste site.

The memo, which Warren wrote in 1996, used legalistic and often dense language to argue that businesses faced the “risk of the unknown” from a growing threat of lawsuits, and that defended the company’s right to “maximize its returns to its unpaid creditors and to survive as an employer. Among the corporations that hired Warren was Dow Chemical, which spent years trying to ward off liability after a subsidiary company’s silicone breast implants began to rupture. She also worked for LTV Steel, a firm that battled with the labor movement as it tried to avoid paying millions of dollars for retired coal miners’ health care.

http://washingtonpost.com/politics/memo-in-1990s-pollution-case-shows-elizabeth-warren-in-action-as-corporate-consultant/2019/12/09/6a6fade0-1a9b-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html

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It was better than the last couple of debates & especially last on where she was very mediocre but again Biden & Sanders both did far better than her (Biden in part due to high expectations) & Klobuchar as well.

I mean Warren did better than Pete who clobbered but this will not reverse her slump. if Anything this will solidify the 2 horse race of Biden & Bernie which could this be heading to. Warren did make a case to Bernie's VP Candidate tonight & her jabs @ Pete were very good.

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Look @ how Yang, Booker, Steyer etc have fallen in the early states. With time there will be more consolidation in favor of the front-runners. Warren is 1% above 15% in Iowa. She needs to make this a 4 way race instead of a 3 way race. If she falls further & drops below 15% in Iowa, then she will fall below 8-10% in NH given there will be a debate in NH after Iowa results & there will be so much discussion about the results in Iowa.

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Warren's campaign unfortunately is over. She won't even make it to Super Tuesday or she will get 1-2% odd.

She needs to get into the Top 2 in Iowa. If she gets the distant worth, she will sink to at most 10-12% in NH & will get 0 Delegates. Pete will get a reasonable showing in Iowa which will push him past 15% in NH.

People are under-estimating the effect of Early States. The entire media narratives, 3 Debates after Iowa & between Super Tuesday will be based on early state results including questions about why the old didn't vote for X, or why the young votes for Y. Even if the NH CBS poll, 63% say Iowa results will be a factor in their vote (It will show GE electability & the real contenders according to NH voters).

Warren can't come @ a distant 4th in Iowa & make it to Super Tuesday. She has to drop out after NH with this performance given Nevada & SC both look tough to win for her.

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Just throwing this out there: Warren has been recovering pretty handsomely on 538's national tracker. She could be back in 2nd nationally within a month, although Iowa will obviously have a big say in whether trends continue or not.

She is 3rd nationally & is 6.5% behind Sanders & is 12-13% behind in many polls including Morning Consult.

She is 4th in Iowa (Sanders 1st Pete 2nd). She is 4th in NH (& almost 7% behind Sanders, Biden 2nd). From leading Iowa, she is now 4th & her fall has even worse in NH where is around 4% behind Pete & Joe Biden. She is below 15% in NH (0 Delegates).

If that is an upward trend, I hope Warren continues to have more of the same !

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Wow, my opinion of Warren had sunk quite a bit recently, but I didn't think she was this much of a terrible person. Never Warren!

She is a fraud & lied about her Native American Heritage to get jobs. She was a Republican who cheered on Reagan's war on poor, African Americans, Single Mothers.

She has exposed herself as a vile person. At a time when Sanders was leading in Iowa, NH & California & was neck on neck in Nevada, she has taken politics to the gutter. This was Bernie's one chance to beat Joe Biden & the last debate before Iowa & she lied & lied & lied to damage Bernie.

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I don't think her concerns are genuine, because even after 2018 they remained great friends. She is only doing this now because she wants to throw Sanders under the bus right before the debate to gain momentum. This is political and doesn't mean anything about Bernie.

Why is this Fake Story being leaked 1 day before the Iowa Debate & 1 year after it happened? How did the press report about it or how does some staffer know about it when only Warren & Bernie were in the room?

This is despicable. This is why Joe Biden will win.

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The Elizabeth Warren position:

Bernie (who has also said stuff like, not voting for a black person doesn't make you racist) said a year ago that a woman can't win, which is moderately controversial but nothing worse than what Biden said a couple weeks ago.

The Bernie Sanders position:

After being friends with Bernie for years, she makes up a lie to make him look bad and sexist, solely because she's down in the polls, and anonymously leaks it, thinking it will help her campaign, even though she's been trying to make the argument that she'd be a unity candidate.

What Sanders is accusing Warren of is a lot worse than what Warren is accusing Sanders of, and you'd have to radically shift your opinion of Warren and her campaign strategy a lot more to believe Sanders' version.

Fake NEWS -

Bernie Sanders in 1988 - A Woman should run for President & can win while supporting Jesse Jackson

Bernie Sanders in 2015 - Urges Elizabeth Warren to run for President in 2015 & only runs when she declines.

Sanders in 2019/2020 - A Woman can't win. (FAKE STORY) & inconsistent with bernie's record but consistent with Warren's record of lies.


Now how does this story get leaked to the press? How does it go to the press 1 year after it happened & 1 day before the Iowa Debate. Sanders & his campaign has called it a lie. Sanders has said he never said & calls it ridiculous & has said he only discussed in depth about a hypothetical 2020 GE matchup & the sexism Trump would use but never about a woman not being able to win.

Hence either Sanders made this remarks which is inconsistent with his career & Warren now leaks this private conversation 1 day before the Iowa Debate.

Or Elizabeth Warren lies/twists Bernie's words & smears him (which is how she is given her history of lying)

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Elizabeth Warren claims she 'objected' to Sondland confirmation – did she?


And, in a new TV commercial, the Democratic presidential candidate specifically calls out Gordon Sondland, a big donor to Donald Trump nominated by the president as U.S. ambassador to the European Union. Warren now says she "objected" to Sondland's nomination – but a review of the record shows the senator did not, in fact, oppose his confirmation on the floor.

The ad, which started running Friday in Iowa, focuses on Sondland, who two months ago became a household name as he was a key witness in the House impeachment inquiry into the president. “At the center of Donald Trump’s crimes and chaos is the millionaire donor he made an ambassador,” Warren says in the spot over pictures of Sondland. “Republicans and Democrats have been rewarding big donors with cushy ambassadorships like this for years,” she says. “It’s Washington corruption at its worst.”

Sondland was confirmed by voice vote in June 2018. Warren and the rest of the senators consented to a “voice vote” for Sondland’s confirmation to occur at a session in which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was the only lawmaker in the chamber. Any member of the Senate could have raised an objection to the nomination – but none did.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/warren-objected-sondland-ambassadorship

BTW Warren is also lying about ambassadorship & is putting ads about it. Another disturbing pattern.

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Elizabeth Warren ‘felt like a failure’ because she wasn’t ‘cut out’ to be a stay-at-home mom

But when Warren was young, she struggled with what the world expected of women. And it made her feel like a “failure,” she told Vogue in a story published Tuesday. “As a young woman I wanted what I’d been taught to want, and I tried really hard to succeed at that,” she says. “I just wasn’t cut out to stay home and build my life around my husband. I understood that many women did, and for a long time I felt like a failure,” she told Vogue.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/13/elizabeth-warren-felt-like-a-failure-for-not-being-a-housewife.html

Elizabeth Warren Woos Women to Turn Around Her Campaign

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, who has seen her national lead dwindle on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, is turning back to a bloc of voters she once appeared to have locked up: Women. The moves show an attempt to restore the bridge-building formulation that put her neck-and-neck with front-runner Joe Biden just three months ago. Since then, she’s lost her advantage among women, traded older voters for less reliable younger ones and failed to make inroads among minority voters.

At the height of her campaign, Warren had the support of one-third of women -- a 9 percentage point gender gap over her male support. That advantage has all but disappeared. Now, that appeal to women is becoming explicit. Warren appeared in three different women’s fashion magazines in the last week, outlining her vision for the presidency but also offering up more personal, relatable details about what’s she’s like off the campaign trail. In Cosmopolitan, she described her daily skincare routine. In Vogue, she revealed that she shops at Target and H&M for her trademark cardigans. And in Elle, she gave dating advice under the headline “Elizabeth Warren Wants You To Ditch That Guy, Get A Dog, And Vote To Tax The Wealthy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/warren-turns-back-to-women-voters-to-clear-path-to-nomination

Very clever tactic

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Can someone explain to me how did this story make it to the press? Let us assume Warren is not a lier & Sanders said this.

Why would Sanders leak this to the press? 1 Day before the Iowa Debate? Why did the CNN news say "Anonymous" Staffer & Campaign officials?

Why did the Warren camp leak this story? I don't think anyone in their right mind believes 1 iota that this is true & it is also coincidental with Warren's push for women votes including her interviews about fashion, dating advise & so on.

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WaPo has an article about the conversation being about Trump using sexism against a woman & it clearly mentions that Bernie didn't say a woman wouldn't beat Trump.

Warren should apologize for smearing a good man. Anyways the 2020 race is going to Biden but she should own up to the dirty tactics her campaign used 1 day before the Iowa Debate.

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WaPo has an article about the conversation being about Trump using sexism against a woman & it clearly mentions that Bernie didn't say a woman wouldn't beat Trump.

Warren should apologize for smearing a good man. Anyways the 2020 race is going to Biden but she should own up to the dirty tactics her campaign used 1 day before the Iowa Debate.

Not doubting you, but I can’t find the article for some reason. Do you have a link?

WaPo article on politics of gender (Bernie/Warren).

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Elizabeth Warren needs to apologize & his supporters here need to stop the incessant lies & dirty smear campaign

I hope she does the right thing & apologizes for smearing Bernie & trying to destroy her campaign.



@KyleKulinski
Politics aside I feel really bad for Bernie on a personal level. His closest "friend" in the senate just accused him of being sexist in an attempt to knock him from the #1 spot. That must hurt deeply. Washington DC is a really lonely place if you have principles & a conscience.

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Warren has repeatedly said that her principal "showed [her] the door" after discovering she was pregnant at the end of the 1971 school year. The episode is pivotal to her life story, in that it dashed her dreams of remaining a public school teacher and launched her reluctantly down the path to public service. Since she began her campaign for the presidency, she has repeatedly said that she was "shown the door" after just a year as a result of her pregnancy. "By the end of the first year I was visibly pregnant, and the principal did what principals did in those days: wished me luck, showed me the door, and hired someone else for the job," she said at a town hall in Oakland in June.

"I worked in a public school system with the children with disabilities. I did that for a year, and then that summer I didn't have the education courses, so I was on an 'emergency certificate,' it was called," Warren said in 2007. "I went back to graduate school and took a couple of courses in education and said, 'I don't think this is going to work out for me.' I was pregnant with my first baby, so I had a baby and stayed home for a couple of years." In fact, the school board minutes show that the board voted by unanimous roll call to extend Warren a "provisional certificate" in speech pathology.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-pregnancy-claim-democratic-presidential-candidate-stands-by-being-pushed-out-of-teaching-job/

Warren's history of lies - Apart from the Native American lie & lying about her children going to college. I guess Democrats are competing to ensure both the Democrats & Republican nominees are huge liars.

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Biden has like a 70-80% chance of winning. The only scenario where he doesn't is if Bernie wins both of Iowa & NH. Sanders is leading among Hispanics & in the that scenario he can challenge Biden.

Warren is currently 4th in Iowa & NH & if Sanders falls, Hispanic votes will be won by Biden by a large margin thereby cementing his victory.

So this NeverWarren crowd is irrelevant now. The only person who can stop Biden is Bernie (& he has to atleast win Iowa & NH for that).

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Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Money wins Super Tuesday. She's pulling ads from Nevada and South Carolina where everybody is focusing and trying to put it towards Super Tuesday where you can sneak in and have a good showing in a state or two.

Would it matter if she drops out before Super Tuesday. If she comes a distant 3/4th in NH & Nevada & 4th in SC, her fundraising will collapse. She has a massive payroll & she will have no money for ads. Nationally she will keep talking& will go to 5% by the time Super Tuesday comes. California & Texas are expensive TV markets & you need money to compete. You need headwind, mometik, decent poll numbers, some victories.

Look @ what happened to Biden. And he is strong in Nevada & South Carolina. You need momentum.

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Sanders and Warren don't really have overlapping support bases anymore.

There is a Sanders -base- that I don't think Warren can tap into.  But there are people that have been gravitating to Sanders over the past two months due to his perceived momentum that I do think Warren could win back.

While coming 3rd in Iowa? 4th in NH? 4th in SC? Warren lead the CA chabge research poll. The last one had her @ half of Sanders & around viability.

No1 will jump ship now. Sanders is winning & raising huge money. Warren is losing, has no money for TV ads, no $ to compete. It is done. Too late.

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Warren is cancelling ad time in NV and SC:

https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1224827035706589185

Money wins Super Tuesday. She's pulling ads from Nevada and South Carolina where everybody is focusing and trying to put it towards Super Tuesday where you can sneak in and have a good showing in a state or two.

Would it matter if she drops out before Super Tuesday. If she comes a distant 3/4th in NH & Nevada & 4th in SC, her fundraising will collapse. She has a massive payroll & she will have no money for ads. Nationally she will keep talking& will go to 5% by the time Super Tuesday comes. California & Texas are expensive TV markets & you need money to compete. You need headwind, mometik, decent poll numbers, some victories.

Look @ what happened to Biden. And he is strong in Nevada & South Carolina. You need momentum.

What do you mean look at what happened to Biden? His campaign didn't collapse. What you need to do is stay competitive, but you don't need to win. Biden is a great example of surviving a rough state.

Biden has getting destroyed in the media, has fallen huge in polls & has no money to compete. He has fallen 4-5% in morning consult & Bernie gained a similar amount to overtake him for the first time. He fell bigtime. This is only getting worse.

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She is in single digits in the CNN NH poll. She is 4% above Gabbard, that is how low she has fallen.

If this is the actual result, she should drop out after NH. This is far worse than what Biden is doing & Biden is nationally doing well & is doing well in the Southern states.