Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA-21 called for Valadao. It's now the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican at D+5.

[Illiniwek]

So are we not going to see any more from Arizona tonight? If so thats probably my cue.

[RI]

Worst realistic case for the GOP in the Senate is 53 votes, which is an adequate number as it neutralizes both Collins and Murkowski on future judges.

[Tintrlvr]

Am I seeing this right? Did the Dems actually sweep mainland New England in the House?

Likely. ME-02 is close, and Maine as of this election uses instant run-off voting for its Congressional elections, so they'll need to distribute the preferences of the independents (chiefly Tiffany Bond). Bond was running mainly as a centrist against Poliquin, so her voters will probably favor Golden, but it's hard to be certain, especially since the IRV system in Maine is brand new.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

JACKY!!!!!!!!!!

[Storr]

JACKY!!!!!!!!!!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Arizona is making me nervous, but Sinema has more favorable turf out.

Yep, all that is left is 45% out in Apache, 67% out in Pinal (56% for Trump in 2016), and 87% out in Maricopa (which is a lot of votes, by far the largest county in the state).

Looking at the 2016 Results, there is the following % of the vote outstanding (2016 result in brackets):

Apache: 72.8%% (Clinton +32.7%)
Greenlee: 12.5% (Trump +24.6%)
Maricopa: 72.27% (Trump +2.9%)
Pima: 59.04% (Clinton +13.8%)
Pinal: 47.06% (Trump +19.5%)
Yavapai: 2.22% (Trump 31.8%)

Critically, Marciopa and Pima are way larger than any other the other counties. Dems should hope that Apache reverts back to the Clinton margin as well.

Apache won't matter, it's way to small.  Sinema should more than make up for McSally's current margin through the Pima vote, and it will all come down to Maricopa, which should be very close.

[IceSpear]

B-b-b-b-b-ut Atlas, pundits, pollsters, "experts" all told me muh Unbeatable Titan...

I will now accept my accolades. I told you guys Nevada was more likely to go D than MO/AZ/WV/MT/IN/ND/FL.

[AtorBoltox]

Worst realistic case for the GOP in the Senate is 53 votes, which is an adequate number as it neutralizes both Collins and Murkowski on future judges.

Yeah Collins has really shown such fierce opposition to Trump's judicial picks!

[Calthrina950]

Collin Peterson is gone in 2020, assuming he even runs again.

Have you seen my thread concerning the intensification of the rural-suburban divide? It astounds me the extent to which Klobuchar collapsed in royal Minnesota as compared to 2012. And Peterson narrowly winning yet again, as well as MN-11 (apparently) and MN-8 flipping to the Republicans, show that the trend is only going to get worse.

[Gass3268]

I think that Democrats will keep MN-01. Mower County is 100% out. Trump won it in 2016, but he only got 49%. Waltz and the rest of the ticket will probably win here and Feehan is only down 566 votes.

[Shadows]

On the bright side outside judges, a GOP Senate isn't really that bad because Republican don't have any ideas. And the one they do have are unpopular.

It is a DISASTER. Dems can't win 5-6 seats in 2020 & so an incumbent Dem president will have a GOP Senate with McConnell as Leader. I doubt 2022 with a Dem President will be a net DEM+ year.

So basically a wasted 1st term. Maybe no SC judges. Maybe McConnell will block Cabinet positions. Maybe McConnell will force cuts to Medicare & SS for any budget to be passed.

DISASTER. One of the biggest Republican victories in decades !

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

[Hammy]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it.

[Yank2133]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is.

[Storr]

Politico calls it for Evers!

[Roronoa D. Law]

Karen Handel is a goner in 2020 if she manages to survive

With the way Atlanta grows and Democrats increasing margin in Cobb and Gwinnett. Handell and Woodall got a tough road ahead.

[Hammy]

Is there a map anywhere of where the Dem House pickups were (like just the pickups?) It'd be interesting to see all at once where they were

[lfromnj]

Karen Handel is a goner in 2020 if she manages to survive

I saw a thread before and people asked which Trump districts will vote democrat in 2020 and Ga 6th is the only one I am 90% confident will.

[Yank2133]

Will Hurd is down with 98% of vote in. AP may have called it too early.

[Illiniwek]

Is there a map anywhere of where the Dem House pickups were (like just the pickups?) It'd be interesting to see all at once where they were

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house

You can toggle to show pick ups only.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ladies and gentleman, after a long (figurative) fight, Walker has finally been slain.

[CookieDamage]

Ooga booga, bye bye Heller and Laxalt!!!!!!!!!!

[Shadows]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it.

Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires.

2016 was unforgivable !

[Illiniwek]

Ladies and gentleman, after a long (figurative) fight, Walker has finally been slain.

Can't like, this one does feel good.