PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Exactly why I think Lamb is going to pull this off. The momentum is clearly on his side, and the GOP's scattered message in the ads suggests that the internals are showing things they don't like.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.

The polls are showing Lamb getting the lion's share of undecideds.

No matter the grade, they are also consistently showing Lamb pulling ahead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers . I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers . I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.

Conor is a very strong candidate, that's for damn sure, but what makes you think Toomey won't run for a third term in 2022?

Besides political views, he is quite literally the polar opposite of Katie McGinty.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The needle gives me anxiety.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pittsburgh Post Gazette to endorse Saccone
https://mobile.twitter.com/colin_deppen/status/972607951495159808

For reference, they also pseudo-endorsed Trump in 2016: https://theincline.com/2016/11/07/pittsburgh-critics-blast-post-gazette-pseudo-trump-endorsement/

I was about to say that. Anyways, the bulk of the undecideds have probably already committed to Lamb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen

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As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen

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As if the country is going nowhere under the Republicans.

Are they the same guys that posted that explicitly racist editorial?

I wouldn't be surprised.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen

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As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials

Where did I indicate that anyone did?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, this rally has been worse than his past. This is not going to swing any voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

I have a feeling it could range anywhere from Lamb +2 to Lamb +5. Either way, I have good feeling about it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen

It's definitely been one of the nuttiest. I don't see how Saccone benefits from this. Undecideds will definitely be turned off.

I saw a tweet (I'll try and find it) from someone on the ground stating that people aren't really excited. They're just there for Trump. They don't care much for Saccone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll.

Can you uhh be a bit more specific?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen

It's definitely been one of the nuttiest. I don't see how Saccone benefits from this. Undecideds will definitely be turned off.

I saw a tweet (I'll try and find it) from someone on the ground stating that people aren't really excited. They're just there for Trump. They don't care much for Saccone.

I've been saying on here for awhile Trumpism only works for Trump. He doesn't help anyone else get elected.

There's a rumor that Trump wants Saccone to lose so that he can make him an ambassador. Maybe to North Korea or something.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Wow, this rally is a sh*tshow. Congrats Congressman Lamb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb is more intelligent than both Saccone and Trump. The rally was a good call.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.

He has all the momentum, and the GOP going into panic mode leads me to believe that the internals look good for Conor. If the polls are correct, and Conor truly is getting the lion share of the undecided votes, then I think he's going to win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nobody reads the PG.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.

How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?

No affect. People have pretty much made up their mind. Plus we have seen the lions share of undecideds going for Conor. I fail to see how a paper's endorsement would completely reverse that.

I also strongly believe that the union endorsements are far more powerful.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Note: In preparation for the Monmouth poll being released tomorrow, last month's had Saccone up 3 points. So I have a strong feeling it will have Lamb up.