PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Jesus Christ, the header briefly changed back to “Gravis: PA-18 Saccone +12” and I had a heart attack.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fine. I guess whatever he needs to do to win 😒. Just know that he is just doing it for the district. Once he is running against Rothfus he will oppose the tariffs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I swear to God he better not say anything remotely pro-Life.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.

Ehhh.... Post-2020/2022 redistricting one of (new) PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, and obviously PA-10 are going to become less friendly to the Dems due to a neighboring R seat getting chopped. Whoever finds themselves without a seat probably challenges Toomey 100% of the time. So perhaps it will be Lamb, but he may settle in and we see Cartwright take up the banner in 2022. Except for the PA-07 guy, they all seem like fine candidates.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say but PA-17 is a tossup. It also happens to be the district that Lamb now lives in so he's likely to win it. He's young and energetic and that's what the Democrats need and that's who they are going to put up against the Tumor.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

All the momentum is on Lamb's side. He's going to win this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.

You're right. RealClearPolitics does have polls showing Ossoff was ahead, but they show that his support waned over time, and by election day, Handel had the advantage. We are seeing the opposite happen here. Support for Saccone is waning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, I'm going back to campaign for Lamb today around 3ish? I'll let you all know how it goes. I'm also going to attempt to go to the GOTV rally where he and Joe Biden are rallying at Robert Morris University, which is tomorrow.

From on the ground: I do see a lot of Lamb signs in places where I saw hordes of Trump signs during the 2016 election. I've only seen about two or three Saccone signs. The guy just isn't exciting or energized.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Phone banking right now. People are so nice and I'm so upset when they say they are voting for Suckone 😭

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.

Fundamentals favor Saccone; race-specific factors favor Lamb. Usually, fundamentals win out, but Lamb has (apparently) a massive advantage in the factors you list. If he wins, it should be close.

Well obviously yes. The only thing Rick has going for him is the fact Trump won the state by 20 points and that it is a historically red district. But I'm not sure that's going to save him, and both he and Trump know that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.

It's. Not. "Edging". UP.

Even when it improved to the mid 40s after the tax bill passed the Republicans still lost special elections, and saw significant swings against their candidates.

Limo, we all know you're a closet Republican and you're still questioning yourself, but this trolling is still really pathetic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).

It was a random HubDialer, so you're incorrect.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.

You suck at trolling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I honestly think Biden's rally is going to pretty much lock in Lamb's victory. Of course, that may be an exaggeration, but Joe is very smart to help out Conor here. It scores both of them a few points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden/Lamb rally at Robert Morris University at 5:00.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This explains what I have been seeing.

@spicyfoodguy

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Republicans throughout this campaign have been pretty much just throwing sh**t in every direction and seeing what sticks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, the GOP is really showing their desperation.


Btw, Gravis will be releasing their poll tomorrow morning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is shaping up to be a narrow Lamb victory. All three polls Gravis has released has shown Saccone consistently at 45-46%, but Lamb has been gaining. Undecideds are going to break for Conor Lamb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If these polls are correctly showing the direction in which undecideds are breaking, then Lamb should win narrowly.


Btw, 18-29 year olds is Lamb's strongest group. I have no reason to believe the "most conservative generation in history" bs

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Limo, there have been times when I seriously thought you were that Scott Presler guy.