2020 New York Redistricting

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FWIW about NY-11: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1735690406610829752

His search:trust me bro

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https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1735750325259194660

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https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1754633932358783393

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Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

So why do NY Democrats advanced a bill to limit redistricting lawsuits to deep blue Albany County? for the beaty? lol
The map is DOA in the legislature.

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I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Malliotakis is DOA in any legislature's map lmao

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https://twitter.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1758169180027617701
https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1758173621267091569
https://twitter.com/socialconcarne/status/1758171806089838776

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Democrats need to pass that bill to limit redistricting lawsuits to Albany County before making a new map!
Republicans will Judge shopp again if they won't

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State Senators already said that they don't want a map that is similar to the current one,very unlikely that they will agree to vote for this map.
It's usually the Assembly surrendering to the Senate and not the opposite.

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If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

Lol no,the Court is 4-3 Dem hack and they aren't going to struck down any Dem map.
You are delusional.

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Are they going to vote on it though without seeing the Senate's map? I still can't believe that they'd let this map pass. I don't have a lot of faith in NY Dems but this really strains a lot of common sense here

People seem to be forget the 4-3 ruling in 2022 was for a special master and striking down the Hochulmander was 5-2. Which means the current majority is still anti-Hochulmander.

It was 4-3,Troutman said that Democrats broke the process but the map itself wasn't unconstitutional

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Democrats are such pussies,they had the Court in their side.
Idiots.

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I still don't get why they wasted our time,at least make NY-11 Trump+1 or something

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Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

[SilverStar]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

justice Troutman agreed with the fact the map was illegal but just thought the remedy should be different (the legistlature should get a chance to redraw)

No,she said that Democrats broke the process but the map itself wasn't unconstitutional.